Tuesday, October 10, 2006

September sales report (2006)

It's that time again, time for the sales report from last month. As always I take the data straight from the local MLS, that I am a paying member of, and the data may not always be accurate. I sift through the data and exclude information I deem to be incorrect that could corrupt the findings. Data shown is for Single Family Homes within the City limits of Kingman and includes the North Kingman, Valle Vista subdivision, and units in the Hualapai Mountains area outside of the City limits but are areas where many SFR's are located. See here for an example of the areas researched for this report.

** Please also note that this is the last report I'll be doing from the old MLS system. Our new Data Exchange goes live on October 25th of this month and it is possible that further reports could be delayed as I learn the new system.

Well... there is no denying that there is some good news. The good news is that total number of new listings dropped last month. I'm hoping this is a trend that continues as we attempt to absorb the excess inventory we have seen balloon up this year. There is a long way to go before real balance comes back to the market though. Yep, when there is good news there is often some bad news that comes along with it. Sales in units fell to a new low for this year. However I can still pull a positive out of the fire, this month there were 1.86 new listings for each sale as compared to 2.4 last month -- the best ratio since February of this year. Not great, not good even really... but a glimpse of promise.

You'll notice something in this chart and it may surprise you, but don't let it. While the average asking price for new listings did drop to the lowest level this year, don't let the average sale price increase leave you to believe that all is well. I highlighted in last months listing report that the new construction homes that entered contract looked way out of whack. That many of those homes seemed to sell on the same day as if ONE purchaser bought all of them. I still don't know that it actually happened that way, but in September those contracts closed escrow and directly helped sway the numbers this month. So in my opinion the new construction sales numbers will come right back down in next months report, and the existing homes sold in September actually went down by a fraction indicating to me what would have been normal.

The average home sold in September had 2.93 bedrooms, 2.03 baths, and a 2.0 car garage. It was built in 1992 and has 1,630 square feet of living space. It was listed for sale for $238,810 and was price was conceded to $221,047 or 8% off of listing.

15 SFR's sold in the month of September over $275,000. The highest priced sale was $510,000 while the lowest price sale was $47,000.

As you can see above, we are still way under the rate of sales that we saw in the two very best years in history. Traditionally we are headed for our slow season of sales so I can't see a big bump in sales in the last quarter that would save our year in overall units sold. Comments from potential buyers continue to be that they will play the waiting game to see how the market prices change. Other buyers that are in need of housing are pleased with the many choices they have and the willingness of some sellers to concede the price down to an acceptable level.

As I've stated before, I believe the current average sale price for the last month is skewed upward and that we should see the yellow line adjust back down to the level we saw in August. Sellers thinking about putting their property on the market for a reasonable quick sale should be looking at the pink line to see if they can afford to sell in today's market. If so they will see plenty of response from the buyers that are laying low.

If you would like further clarification on this report please leave a comment here, email me, or contact me by phone. I'll be happy to talk to you. Look for more reports in the weeks and months ahead.

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