Wednesday, December 10, 2008

November Sales Report (2008)

Not the November to remember as you will see. Unit sales were down compared to last years paltry numbers ending a decent string of unit sale increases year over year. Couple that with one closed transaction over $500k to skew the average a bit, we will see the average sales price rise as compared to last month. I'll have more on that after the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings and sales in units chart:

I can't get over how symbiotic the two lines shown above seem to be. The last three months basically mirror each other, as one goes up -- so does the other. Keep in mind that these are two different sets of data. The blue line is new listings that appeared in the month, the red line represents closed transactions for the month. If the oversupply of inventory is ever to be corrected... these lines will have to intersect and actually switch places for a length of time.

Average listings and sales averages chart:

I mentioned the one large dollar transaction at the top of this post. If I take that unit out of the equation, the remaining units sold in November averaged $139,351 each. Prices are still falling, on average. Price your new listing accordingly.

2005 through 2008 unit sales chart:

And thus ends a nice little three month winning streak in terms of unit sales as compared to last year. 2008 will now likely end lower in total single family sales in units than was seen in 2007. In order to end the year higher, 50 units would need to close in December. Christmas miracles, anyone??

2005 through 2008 average price chart:

"Hello down there Light Blue line."

"Hello up there Orange, Yellow, and Pink lines," said the lonely Light Blue line.

"You look lonely down there Light Blue line."

"I won't be lonely down here next year,"
guessed the lonely Light Blue line.

Something like that.

The average price of closed sales fell 26% compared to sales recorded in November of 2007.

2005 through 2008 median price chart:

The median sales price for closed transactions is off by 31.5% as compared to November of 2007.

The price range of sales for November 2008 is $69,900 through $535,000.

Average SFR statistics:

The average home sold in November had 3.11 bedrooms, 2.2 bathrooms, a 2.2 car garage, included 1,648 square feet of living space, and was built in 1997. The average hold sold for an average of $91 per square foot of living space.

It took an average of 82 days of marketing to attract a buyer to come to an agreement and a total of 116 days from the first day of marketing to the close of escrow.

Sellers reduced price on average $19,006 to attract a buyer on average from the first day of marketing, and conceded and average of another $16,684 to the buyer in the transaction. The total average price concession for the homes sold in November was $35,690 (19.18% total reduction).

Bonus Charts:

Foreclosure Impact:

In terms of units sold, of the 36 sales reported for November -- 16 were listed as foreclosed on (44% of units sold).

The price range of foreclosed units sold for November was from $69,900 up to $176,200.

The average price of foreclosed units sold for November was $123,488 (17.9% lower than the overall November figure).

The median price of foreclosed units sold for November was $109,900.

The average foreclosure home sold in November had 3.06 bedrooms, 2.1 bathrooms, a 2.3 car garage, included 1,546 square feet of living space, and was built in 2001. The average home sold for $79 per square foot of living space. Owners of foreclosed on homes conceded 18% off the initial offering price.


Traditional sellers actually out sold bank owned sellers in November. I also have noticed a plateau of sorts from the bank owned sales on pricing. This either means that the banks have reached their threshold of pain in this market, or another round of price reductions are coming. No matter which one, newly listed homes still hit the market priced too high for the current market so I suspect further reductions in price to lure more buyers.

Otherwise it is more of the same... can buyers afford to buy?? Can sellers afford to sell?? Only you can answer that question.

Lastly, the only other conclusion I have today is to wish you all a warm and friendly holiday season. My family celebrates Christmas, but I bid you good tidings however your family celebrates. No matter how we celebrate, it is the season to be of good cheer and a good neighbor.

See you back next month for the December wrap up and the year end report. Here is a quick preview... the average sale of a home in Kingman in 2008 will be at a lower level than it was in 2005 by a healthy amount. Yet the Kingman market will only see a little over 40% the amount of units sold compared to 2005.

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