Anyway, here are four numbers that I am throwing at you; 74, 70, 85, 88... they mark the total number of new contracts taken in each of the last four consecutive months. The sum total equals 317 (check my math). Stay with me for a second, by most accounts the once raging local housing market began to tank noticeably in 2006 and in the first four consecutive months of that year (January through April of '06) I reported a total of 287 new contracts which until a couple of months ago would have been the highest number of new contracts taken in any four month stretch. By comparison, the worst four month stretch was from October '07 through January '08 where only 123 new contracts were written.
No this does not mean that the Kingman housing market is out of the woods just yet, but perhaps it is at least off life support. Activity for the last four months is up over 157% from the worst four consecutive months going back to the beginning of 2006.
Of course there is a 'cause' for this surge in activity. The average marketing price of the new contracts taken the last four months is down over 37% from that period that saw the worst activity level, and down over 46% from the first four months of 2006 (the stretch with the 287 contracts).
I'll compare activity levels of the first six months of this year to the first half of the years going back to 2006 after the June listings and pending report below, of course the disclaimer comes first...
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Data tables for all new listings tracked in the month of June 2009
| Item | Total Units | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Total Listings On Market | 429 | 423 |
| Total Listings Listed as Foreclosed | 54 | 48 |
| Item | Month of June | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| New Listings Total | 108 | 78 |
| New Listings Listed as Foreclosed | 41 | 24 |
| Average Asking Price Per Unit | $151,747 | $163,294 |
| Median Asking Price | $120,400 | $120,000 |
| Average Asking Price Per Square Foot | $93 | $102 |
| Units Re-Listed | 7 | 12 |
| Units Already Under Contract | 17 | 11 |
| Item | Month of June | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Living Area Square Footage | 1,629 | 1,603 |
| Bedrooms | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Bathrooms | 2.06 | 2.03 |
| Garage | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Year Built | 1996 | 1994 |
| Item | Lowest | Highest |
| Listings | $39,600 | $565,000 |
I was hoping not to see the new listing number come back up to where it was previously. I liked the number from May much better, but even so the total number of available listings held steady with just a small increase. As you can also see from the numbers above that the banks put more listings on the market, close to double the amount from the month before (but hey, they certainly are moving them).
Of the new listings 17 are already under contract and two more already closed. So the market is absorbing the well priced listings at a better pace. Would be buyers have to pay closer attention if they want the lowest priced and best perceived value listings as they won't last long.
Data tables for all new Units under contract tracked in the month of June 2009
| Item | Total Units | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Total Units Under Contract | 139 | 144 |
| Total Contracts Listed as Foreclosed | 61 | 63 |
| Item | Month of June | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| New Contracts Total | 74 | 70 |
| New Contracts Listed as Foreclosed | 38 | 36 |
| Average Marketing Price Per Unit | $130,376 | $123,585 |
| Median Marketing Price | $104,900 | $114,900 |
| Average Marketing Price Per Square Foot | $79 | $80 |
| Days on Market to Acquire a Contract | 106 | 137 |
| Average Marketing Price Reduction | $10,864 | $18,570 |
| Item | Month of June | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Living Area Square Footage | 1,642 | 1,548 |
| Bedrooms | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Bathrooms | 2.1 | 2 |
| Garage | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Year Built | 1994 | 1996 |
| Item | Lowest | Highest |
| Listings | $29,000 | $371,500 |
Not much in noticeable changes in the pending contract figures other than in the average marketing time (down basically a months time) and the average price reduction amount -- but that may be due to the 19 new listings that are already under contract or have closed escrow. When a property is priced correctly to the market, there is no time for price reductions.
Year over year data listings/pending contracts
| Item | UP/DOWN | unit/dollar amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Listings | DOWN | 165 | (28%) |
| New Listings in June | DOWN | 1 | (.9%) |
| Average Price per New Listing | DOWN | $54,809 | (26.5%) |
| Median List Price | DOWN | $36,000 | (23%) |
| Item | UP/DOWN | unit/dollar amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Pending Contracts | UP | 49 | 54% |
| New Contracts for June | UP | 21 | 40% |
| Average Marketing Price per Unit | DOWN | $59,786 | (31%) |
| Median Marketing Price | DOWN | $47,550 | (31%) |
No real changes in the trends since I started doing the year over year stuff earlier this year. However even in the continued pace of the trends, the market continues to favor the buyers over the sellers. That will not change until there is a better balance between the available properties listed for sale and the number of buyers in the market at any given time. It is getting better on this front, but slowly.
Earlier in this post I said that I would do some comparisons of activity levels for the first half of each year going back to 2006, we'll look at new listing activity in terms of units first.
In the first half of 2006 there were 980 new listings
In the first half of 2007 there were 819 new listings
In the first half of 2008 there were 687 new listings
In the first half of 2009 there were 606 new listings
As you can see the trend is favorable to achieve balance but like I mentioned before -- true balance may yet be still a long way off. The numbers should give you some indication of just how out of balance the market was though, especially when you take into account the following pending activity in terms of units over the same time frames below...
In the first half of 2006 there were 409 new contracts
In the first half of 2007 there were 306 new contracts
In the first half of 2008 there were 283 new contracts
In the first half of 2009 there were 434 new contracts
A nice bit of a bounce-back so far this year, but I know it can't feel all that great for current sellers because for those that attracted buyers in the first six months of this year were marketing their property for 43% less than they were in 2006 on average. But if there is a sliver of optimism to be found, this year there were 38% fewer sellers as compared to the number of sellers in 2006 for little above the same number of buyers.
Same time, same place, next month?? You bet, see you then.
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