Thursday, July 09, 2009

June Sales Report (2009)

Statistics impress or interest me for the most part in the realm of baseball, but since I've been tracking local housing data I've become sort of a junkie for these stats as well. The data is very interesting for sales in June. A couple of highlights include; in June of '09 there were more sales than in June of '06 (and obviously in '07 and '08 as well) and for the first time this calendar year traditional sellers out paced the banks in unit sales (not by much but a win is a win).

I say the highlights are 'good stuff'.

And even though the traditional seller made hay last month, there is still quite a bit of contrast between traditional sellers and foreclosures.

The market has been moving around quite a bit lately to the positive and yes still to the negative, depending on your point of view. We'll get to all that after you read the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings and sales in units chart:

The last time a number was posted that showed a higher figure than June's was in May of 2006 when 82 units were sold. But let's not break out the bubbly just yet, this is traditionally the best time of year for the highest production numbers. At least the market is showing signs of busting out of a long slump.

Average listings and sales averages chart:

This chart is the indicator of why the market may be busting out of the slump it has been in... buyers seem to be drawn to the current prices. The average priced sale came in at $116,408 over the first half of 2009. Prices appear to be showing some signs of stability and are certainly falling at less of a pace. The listing average is still too high and that will be apparent later on in this report when I break out the traditional sellers vs. foreclosed sales data for comparison.

2006 through 2009 unit sales chart:

Looks nice as June 2009 stands above the prior three years in production.

Sales in units were up 52% from last June.

2006 through 2009 average price chart:

The average price is still trending south... but a lot more to the east than before. To put it another way, if you placed a marble on the trendline this year it would take longer to roll off the table as compared to the trendline last year.

The average price fell by a rate of 34.6% as compared to June of 2008.

2006 through 2009 median price chart:

The median price is off 35% from the same month in 2008.

Final sales prices in June of 2009 ranged from $23,500 to $349,900.

Average SFR statistics:

Data tables for all sales tracked in June 2009

Price Data
ItemJune. '09
Average Price per Unit Sold $111,652
Median Price per Unit Sold $98,000
Average Price per Square Foot $76

House Data
Item June '09
Ave Living Space per Square Foot 1,475
Year Built 1995

Marketing Data
ItemJune '09
Days on Market to Contract 111
Days on Market to Close 158
Price Reductions on Market $16,399
Negotiated Price Concessions $6,463
Total Price Concessions $22,892
Total Percent Conceded

Bonus Charts:

Foreclosure Impact:

July of 2008 was the last time traditional sellers sold more units than foreclosed on bank owned sales.

Traditional Seller vs. Bank Owned sales comparison for June 2009

Price Data
ItemTraditional Seller
Bank Owned
Total Units Sold in Month
Average Price per Unit Sold $135,281$85,398
Median Price per Unit Sold $116,000$77,500
Average Price per Square Foot $85$64

House Data
Item Traditional SellerBank Owned
Ave Living Space per Square Foot 1,5951,342
Year Built 19991989

Marketing Data
ItemTraditional Seller Bank Owned
Days on Market to Contract 16254
Days on Market to Close 21299
Price Reductions on Market $24,535$7,359
Negotiated Price Concessions $11,479$954
Total Price Concessions $36,014$8,313
Total Percent Conceded21%

Wrap Up:

Now while I might seem pleased with the fact that traditional sellers sold more homes than the banks did in June, we must keep in mind that not all traditional sellers are selling via traditional means. I'm talking about 'short sales' here and I believe that they are having an impact when we compare the two columns of data.

Above you will notice a huge discrepancy in the days on market to attract a buyer and close a transaction. Two things, bank owned foreclosures are simply priced at an acceptable level that likely appeals to one or more buyers at an increased level of urgency. It is why bank owned properties are performing so well on the market right now, well that and there are a limited amount of listings that are bank owned. I wrote a couple of months ago in one of my listing reports that there was about a month and a half's worth of inventory that was bank owned. Because bank owned properties are on average the lowest priced listings they get the most attention from the current buyers (the price is right folks).

Now on the other hand, 'short sales' are listed by the financially distressed folks that are likely facing foreclosure themselves or at the very least owe more principle on their loan than what the current market would bring to bear to sell their property. Folks attempting to 'short sale' are still fall into the traditional sellers column. While I like stats and data just fine, I don't have the will to mine the data for sales that may have been a 'short sale'.

But 'short sales' can take extra time because often is the case that the bank is slow to respond to a buyers offer, and all offers in a 'short sale' are contingent upon the bank that holds the note approving the agreement. It can take extra days, weeks, or even months to get a proper response from a bank and send the agreement to a title company to open escrow.

The other discrepancy related to short sales would include the vast price concessions that we see under the traditional seller column. I'm noticing that the banks are willing to wheel and deal with buyers in a 'short sale' and settle on a price much lower than the initial asking price or even the reduced marketing price. That will have an extra impact on the differences we see month in and month out.

Beyond that though, traditional sellers for the most part should see a premium price compared to most foreclosures because of condition of the home and property. Traditional sellers still have what I would consider the best properties for sale, mostly meaning move in ready at the time of the sale. That is not to be confused with traditional sellers offering the best 'deal' on a home, but buyers that want a ready to move into and for the most part nicest place to call home are likely pay that premium price to do so.

Yet traditional sellers still have plenty of competition out there from other folks trying to do the same thing. In fact there is still an unbalanced amount of traditional listings on the market for the amount of buyers presently. The buyers are still enticed by the best 'deal' which has much to do with price due to existing competition.

So if there is any advice I would offer to those that are thinking about selling in today's market it is still this... price accordingly to the market and compete for the buyers. The good news is that the buyers do still exist and increasingly ready to make things happen... even in this market.

See you next time. Maybe sales in units will break 80 in the next month or so... stay tuned.

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