Tuesday, January 13, 2009

2008 Listings and Sales Activity Wrap Up...

Another year has gone by the way-side and of course this means tabulating the data for housing in the Kingman market. You may want to hide the women and children, and if you are squeamish you should be warned that the following is not for the feint of heart (especially if you are a seller).

I'll make some comparisons to data I shared last year in this linked post throughout this report. I'll also be adding a chart that looks back at the average priced sold home figure in each month going back to 2004. I even learned how to make an HTML table to put some data in a easy to read format (with hopefully less spelling errors).

Before we begin though, of course comes the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Let's get started, and please click on any chart for a larger view.

2007 Listing Activity Report:

In 2008 the Kingman market saw 1,393 listings enter the fray, that is down from the year previous (1,563). Just over one quarter of those listings closed which is up 5% from 2007. There are even a few more pending contracts from listings taken in 2008 than in 2007. Expired listings rate is up, sellers withdrawing or canceling is down, and sellers that have temporarily taken their home off the market is negligible.

I'm just going to guess that the success of the banks selling their distressed assets at cut rate prices is what led to an increase in percentage of closings per listing in 2008.

The market for sellers is still very much crowded and competitive, there isn't any balance in our market. Buyers still have the luxury of waiting sellers out for more price concessions. In other words, the market is hardly any different than it was in 2007 for sellers entering the market (other than values have been plummeting).

I know that in some year in the future the chart above will look much different with a bigger piece of red pie, but not yet.

2007 Sales Activity Report:

As you can see both unit sales and total dollar volume came in lowest on record here at MOCO Real. Total dollar volume is off 22% from 2007 (and 62.6% from 2005... yikes!!). Unit sales are off just a tad compared to 2007 but off 59% from 2005 (again... yikes!!).

It just isn't possible to escape the national news about real estate markets in general and the above charts obviously will give credence to those reports. There is little doubt that our local market was 'pumped and dumped' - to use a phrase - during the boom years, but I still feel that the fall did not have to be as bad as it has been (and may yet be). I'll resist the temptation to go on a local political rant as to the reasoning of my opinion at this time, but I know the severity of our fall is not being felt in every other market in the country. We must do better as a community... and I'll leave it at that.

So now the one we've been waiting for... just what was the average priced sale in 2008??

Last year I mentioned a lag in the average figure and it appeared in the 2008 average unit sale. If my lag theory is correct, and the community continues to do nothing about the local economy, then look long and hard (that's what she said) at the sales in units chart above again. Bottom forming this year (towards end of year) and runs through the following year at similar levels... that is my best guess based on this data. Again, that is if my theory is correct and I always reserve the right to be wrong when speaking about the future.

The average price of a sold home in our market dropped nearly 21% in 2008 compared to 2007 and with all the foreclosures still coming I will not be surprised to see that figure fall again in similar fashion.

Yet even with all the gloom and doom (looks like even I caught that dreaded disease), Kingman is still the place to be as far as I'm concerned. And it will be even more affordable in due time.

Below is that running chart logging each months average sale going back to 2004 up to last month...

I look forward to next year to stretch this out further and see where it goes.

Now for those data tables (and my first shot at overcoming some HTML anxiety).

Data tables for all sales tracked in the year 2008

Price Data
Average Price per Unit Sold $162,072
Median Price per Unit Sold $142,500
Average Price per Square Foot $103

House Data
Item 2008
Ave Living Space per Square Foot 1,571
Year Built 1995

Marketing Data
Days on Market to Contract 114
Days on Market to Close 152
Price Reductions on Market $16,660
Negotiated Price Concessions $10,068
Total Price Concessions $26,728

Not bad eh?? Next year I'll add a column to compare the previous year. I'm simply too overwhelmed coming up with this initial table. I plan on using tables like this for listings and sales reports throughout the coming years. Hopefully it will allow for easier reading (and posting).

In Conclusion:

No it is not the end of the world as we know it (that tune was on my XM radio just now), but the above data is reality.

For sellers, the only advice I can offer is the same as it has always been... price accordingly (as you can). Stay in tune with the market, feel free to drop by this site on a monthly basis or simply keep in touch with your favorite real estate professional (even if I am not that person). Be warned though, there is a clear trend in the direction of future pricing and if you plan to wait the market out for better days -- be very patient (and try to get more people to move to Kingman). Remember that you should expect a premium for a well taken care of and marketable house.

For buyers, well the ball is even more in your court than it was last year at this time. I see low interest rates available at the moment, but have no idea when that may change (contact your favorite lender for that information). It can always be the best time to buy (had to get a little Realtor spin in here somewhere), but only YOU can determine if it is the best time. You will want to ask and answer some questions of yourself and your situation. You will have to have a plan. You will have to have the ability to afford the home and all that comes with home ownership. If price values are a concern, you will have to look long term. Not sure how long you plan on living in the area... probably a wise decision to hold off on that new home. There is also time to take advantage of the extremely reasonable rental prices/costs at the moment if you can't determine where you will be.

But if you are ready for purchase, I'm ready to serve you. It's two ton's of fun representing buyers in negotiations at this time. I have the data and am more than willing to use it in your favor. Negotiating from a position of strength is just my game.

I look forward to the challenges that lay ahead in 2009 and beyond.

No comments: