These photos are taken by Joel Gringorten.
Enjoy...
(click on images for larger view)
Monday, July 13, 2009
Hoover Dam Bypass photos...
Speaking of actual really nice photos, I notice a couple of really nice pics of the ongoing construction of the Hoover Dam Bypass project taken on Saturday night. I emailed the local guy who took these great shots and asked if I could post them here.
These photos are taken by Joel Gringorten.
Enjoy...
(click on images for larger view)
These photos are taken by Joel Gringorten.
Enjoy...
(click on images for larger view)
My weekend photos...
I sneaked out of town again this past weekend and headed to the high country of Durango Colorado. A nice visit with extended family ensued... plus I managed a few nice photos worth sharing...
... I'll probably write about water issues again this week, however I'm thinking about going a different direction. Basically if the water worry warts are right about the level of water remaining in Mohave County, shouldn't we be paying much more in fees for use of the water?? I mean if we are going to protect those last few remaining drops down there, somebody needs to pony up. Might as well be us because we are the only ones here and plus we are trying to protect that source for future generations.
... I'll probably write about water issues again this week, however I'm thinking about going a different direction. Basically if the water worry warts are right about the level of water remaining in Mohave County, shouldn't we be paying much more in fees for use of the water?? I mean if we are going to protect those last few remaining drops down there, somebody needs to pony up. Might as well be us because we are the only ones here and plus we are trying to protect that source for future generations.
Thursday, July 09, 2009
June Sales Report (2009)
Statistics impress or interest me for the most part in the realm of baseball, but since I've been tracking local housing data I've become sort of a junkie for these stats as well. The data is very interesting for sales in June. A couple of highlights include; in June of '09 there were more sales than in June of '06 (and obviously in '07 and '08 as well) and for the first time this calendar year traditional sellers out paced the banks in unit sales (not by much but a win is a win).
I say the highlights are 'good stuff'.
And even though the traditional seller made hay last month, there is still quite a bit of contrast between traditional sellers and foreclosures.
The market has been moving around quite a bit lately to the positive and yes still to the negative, depending on your point of view. We'll get to all that after you read the disclaimer...
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Listings and sales in units chart:
The last time a number was posted that showed a higher figure than June's was in May of 2006 when 82 units were sold. But let's not break out the bubbly just yet, this is traditionally the best time of year for the highest production numbers. At least the market is showing signs of busting out of a long slump.
Average listings and sales averages chart:
This chart is the indicator of why the market may be busting out of the slump it has been in... buyers seem to be drawn to the current prices. The average priced sale came in at $116,408 over the first half of 2009. Prices appear to be showing some signs of stability and are certainly falling at less of a pace. The listing average is still too high and that will be apparent later on in this report when I break out the traditional sellers vs. foreclosed sales data for comparison.
2006 through 2009 unit sales chart:
Looks nice as June 2009 stands above the prior three years in production.
Sales in units were up 52% from last June.
2006 through 2009 average price chart:
The average price is still trending south... but a lot more to the east than before. To put it another way, if you placed a marble on the trendline this year it would take longer to roll off the table as compared to the trendline last year.
The average price fell by a rate of 34.6% as compared to June of 2008.
2006 through 2009 median price chart:
The median price is off 35% from the same month in 2008.
Final sales prices in June of 2009 ranged from $23,500 to $349,900.
Average SFR statistics:
Bonus Charts:
Foreclosure Impact:
July of 2008 was the last time traditional sellers sold more units than foreclosed on bank owned sales.
Wrap Up:
Now while I might seem pleased with the fact that traditional sellers sold more homes than the banks did in June, we must keep in mind that not all traditional sellers are selling via traditional means. I'm talking about 'short sales' here and I believe that they are having an impact when we compare the two columns of data.
Above you will notice a huge discrepancy in the days on market to attract a buyer and close a transaction. Two things, bank owned foreclosures are simply priced at an acceptable level that likely appeals to one or more buyers at an increased level of urgency. It is why bank owned properties are performing so well on the market right now, well that and there are a limited amount of listings that are bank owned. I wrote a couple of months ago in one of my listing reports that there was about a month and a half's worth of inventory that was bank owned. Because bank owned properties are on average the lowest priced listings they get the most attention from the current buyers (the price is right folks).
Now on the other hand, 'short sales' are listed by the financially distressed folks that are likely facing foreclosure themselves or at the very least owe more principle on their loan than what the current market would bring to bear to sell their property. Folks attempting to 'short sale' are still fall into the traditional sellers column. While I like stats and data just fine, I don't have the will to mine the data for sales that may have been a 'short sale'.
But 'short sales' can take extra time because often is the case that the bank is slow to respond to a buyers offer, and all offers in a 'short sale' are contingent upon the bank that holds the note approving the agreement. It can take extra days, weeks, or even months to get a proper response from a bank and send the agreement to a title company to open escrow.
The other discrepancy related to short sales would include the vast price concessions that we see under the traditional seller column. I'm noticing that the banks are willing to wheel and deal with buyers in a 'short sale' and settle on a price much lower than the initial asking price or even the reduced marketing price. That will have an extra impact on the differences we see month in and month out.
Beyond that though, traditional sellers for the most part should see a premium price compared to most foreclosures because of condition of the home and property. Traditional sellers still have what I would consider the best properties for sale, mostly meaning move in ready at the time of the sale. That is not to be confused with traditional sellers offering the best 'deal' on a home, but buyers that want a ready to move into and for the most part nicest place to call home are likely pay that premium price to do so.
Yet traditional sellers still have plenty of competition out there from other folks trying to do the same thing. In fact there is still an unbalanced amount of traditional listings on the market for the amount of buyers presently. The buyers are still enticed by the best 'deal' which has much to do with price due to existing competition.
So if there is any advice I would offer to those that are thinking about selling in today's market it is still this... price accordingly to the market and compete for the buyers. The good news is that the buyers do still exist and increasingly ready to make things happen... even in this market.
See you next time. Maybe sales in units will break 80 in the next month or so... stay tuned.
I say the highlights are 'good stuff'.
And even though the traditional seller made hay last month, there is still quite a bit of contrast between traditional sellers and foreclosures.
The market has been moving around quite a bit lately to the positive and yes still to the negative, depending on your point of view. We'll get to all that after you read the disclaimer...
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Listings and sales in units chart:
The last time a number was posted that showed a higher figure than June's was in May of 2006 when 82 units were sold. But let's not break out the bubbly just yet, this is traditionally the best time of year for the highest production numbers. At least the market is showing signs of busting out of a long slump.Average listings and sales averages chart:
This chart is the indicator of why the market may be busting out of the slump it has been in... buyers seem to be drawn to the current prices. The average priced sale came in at $116,408 over the first half of 2009. Prices appear to be showing some signs of stability and are certainly falling at less of a pace. The listing average is still too high and that will be apparent later on in this report when I break out the traditional sellers vs. foreclosed sales data for comparison.2006 through 2009 unit sales chart:
Looks nice as June 2009 stands above the prior three years in production.Sales in units were up 52% from last June.
2006 through 2009 average price chart:
The average price is still trending south... but a lot more to the east than before. To put it another way, if you placed a marble on the trendline this year it would take longer to roll off the table as compared to the trendline last year.The average price fell by a rate of 34.6% as compared to June of 2008.
2006 through 2009 median price chart:
The median price is off 35% from the same month in 2008.Final sales prices in June of 2009 ranged from $23,500 to $349,900.
Average SFR statistics:
Data tables for all sales tracked in June 2009
| Item | June. '09 |
|---|---|
| Average Price per Unit Sold | $111,652 |
| Median Price per Unit Sold | $98,000 |
| Average Price per Square Foot | $76 |
| Item | June '09 |
|---|---|
| Ave Living Space per Square Foot | 1,475 |
| Bedrooms | 3 |
| Bathrooms | 2 |
| Garage | 1.7 |
| Year Built | 1995 |
| Item | June '09 |
|---|---|
| Days on Market to Contract | 111 |
| Days on Market to Close | 158 |
| Price Reductions on Market | $16,399 |
| Negotiated Price Concessions | $6,463 |
| Total Price Concessions | $22,892 |
| Total Percent Conceded | 17.02% |
Bonus Charts:
Foreclosure Impact:
July of 2008 was the last time traditional sellers sold more units than foreclosed on bank owned sales.
Traditional Seller vs. Bank Owned sales comparison for June 2009
| Item | Traditional Seller | Bank Owned |
|---|---|---|
| Total Units Sold in Month | 40 | 36 |
| Average Price per Unit Sold | $135,281 | $85,398 |
| Median Price per Unit Sold | $116,000 | $77,500 |
| Average Price per Square Foot | $85 | $64 |
| Item | Traditional Seller | Bank Owned |
|---|---|---|
| Ave Living Space per Square Foot | 1,595 | 1,342 |
| Bedrooms | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Bathrooms | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Garage | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Year Built | 1999 | 1989 |
| Item | Traditional Seller | Bank Owned |
|---|---|---|
| Days on Market to Contract | 162 | 54 |
| Days on Market to Close | 212 | 99 |
| Price Reductions on Market | $24,535 | $7,359 |
| Negotiated Price Concessions | $11,479 | $954 |
| Total Price Concessions | $36,014 | $8,313 |
| Total Percent Conceded | 21% | 9% |
Wrap Up:
Now while I might seem pleased with the fact that traditional sellers sold more homes than the banks did in June, we must keep in mind that not all traditional sellers are selling via traditional means. I'm talking about 'short sales' here and I believe that they are having an impact when we compare the two columns of data.
Above you will notice a huge discrepancy in the days on market to attract a buyer and close a transaction. Two things, bank owned foreclosures are simply priced at an acceptable level that likely appeals to one or more buyers at an increased level of urgency. It is why bank owned properties are performing so well on the market right now, well that and there are a limited amount of listings that are bank owned. I wrote a couple of months ago in one of my listing reports that there was about a month and a half's worth of inventory that was bank owned. Because bank owned properties are on average the lowest priced listings they get the most attention from the current buyers (the price is right folks).
Now on the other hand, 'short sales' are listed by the financially distressed folks that are likely facing foreclosure themselves or at the very least owe more principle on their loan than what the current market would bring to bear to sell their property. Folks attempting to 'short sale' are still fall into the traditional sellers column. While I like stats and data just fine, I don't have the will to mine the data for sales that may have been a 'short sale'.
But 'short sales' can take extra time because often is the case that the bank is slow to respond to a buyers offer, and all offers in a 'short sale' are contingent upon the bank that holds the note approving the agreement. It can take extra days, weeks, or even months to get a proper response from a bank and send the agreement to a title company to open escrow.
The other discrepancy related to short sales would include the vast price concessions that we see under the traditional seller column. I'm noticing that the banks are willing to wheel and deal with buyers in a 'short sale' and settle on a price much lower than the initial asking price or even the reduced marketing price. That will have an extra impact on the differences we see month in and month out.
Beyond that though, traditional sellers for the most part should see a premium price compared to most foreclosures because of condition of the home and property. Traditional sellers still have what I would consider the best properties for sale, mostly meaning move in ready at the time of the sale. That is not to be confused with traditional sellers offering the best 'deal' on a home, but buyers that want a ready to move into and for the most part nicest place to call home are likely pay that premium price to do so.
Yet traditional sellers still have plenty of competition out there from other folks trying to do the same thing. In fact there is still an unbalanced amount of traditional listings on the market for the amount of buyers presently. The buyers are still enticed by the best 'deal' which has much to do with price due to existing competition.
So if there is any advice I would offer to those that are thinking about selling in today's market it is still this... price accordingly to the market and compete for the buyers. The good news is that the buyers do still exist and increasingly ready to make things happen... even in this market.
See you next time. Maybe sales in units will break 80 in the next month or so... stay tuned.
About that whole 'explosive growth' thingy...
The population estimates were updated recently at the US Census site (link here to check my math). Keep in mind that while the data is new to those of us that view the data, it is actually already a year old. It is updated back to July 1 of 2008, and as long as my calendar is correct it is now July 9th of 2009.
Of course I made a chart so you don't have to look at the numbers and spreadsheets. If you remember, I ran a similar chart last year in a post about expired listings. There I shared a feeling that the growth rate might actually be in the negative in this years report. Well as you will see it didn't exactly go to the negative, but it did drop once again.
I'm even more inclined to believe that the growth rate will turn negative when the next report comes out next year.
Meanwhile the data shows that the city of Phoenix had a growth rate of 2.16% between 2007 and 2008... and increase from the prior period ending a streak of two years of slight declines.
I think Mr. Bob Marley said it right... "Send us another brother Moses!"
And to borrow what I wrote last year...
... and perhaps still listening.
Of course I made a chart so you don't have to look at the numbers and spreadsheets. If you remember, I ran a similar chart last year in a post about expired listings. There I shared a feeling that the growth rate might actually be in the negative in this years report. Well as you will see it didn't exactly go to the negative, but it did drop once again.
I'm even more inclined to believe that the growth rate will turn negative when the next report comes out next year.Meanwhile the data shows that the city of Phoenix had a growth rate of 2.16% between 2007 and 2008... and increase from the prior period ending a streak of two years of slight declines.
I think Mr. Bob Marley said it right... "Send us another brother Moses!"
And to borrow what I wrote last year...
Kinda funny looking at the data from 2006 to 2007. That was the same time that a select few in this community started getting all frenzied up that too many people were moving here and throwing out oddities like 'put the brakes on growth'. Wish granted it appears. People listened.
... and perhaps still listening.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Yes... it is economic development news time again
After reading an article in today Kingman Daily Loyd (and watching the latest city council meeting discussion) about the idea of surcharges as a possible elixir to reduce 'impact fees' and bring real economic development to Kingman, I thought I'd take a few minutes to search other communities efforts on economic development. I'll save expanding my thoughts on sales tax surcharges for new commercial developments for another day perhaps other than I'll say the idea is incredibly weak, certainly more expensive, and much more risky compared to other ideas that have been on the table for years now.
So let's see what a couple of our fellow communities are up to these days...
Why not a surcharge??
Impressed though that it took only three years to pull that off. I'm not sure if the powers that be in Kingman have even started a clock on any ambitious plans, or even less ambitious plans above a program encouraging the good folks to shop locally.
$46 million for 50 jobs?? Guess that's why they call investments risky... but if the folks who made the decision are right... worth it, unless you prefer living in a turtle shell.
Oh... like an investment into the future of the community. The only thing you hear about the future in Kingman is how there won't be any water, stated as an empirical fact even (those that say that though leave out all kinds of details and just offer rhetoric -- because it's cheap).
All this for a tiny town of 3,500?? Plus; computers, data, a place to crunch and store data... I get the feeling that stuff like that will be around for quite some time. Maybe even outlive 'manufacturing' and the benefits it used to offer communities.
What?? There was competition for this thing?? And the community actually gave enough of a darn to 'work' for it?? That is an art-form that our community hasn't quite woken up to... and why it is being left behind.
Wow, what a revelation... a small number of newly created jobs leads to even more jobs?? When you listen to the self anointed most wise elders around Kingman a number like 50 jobs means basically landscaping or janitorial positions, hardly worth the effort. But then again it may be the reason that low paying jobs are the most common in the Kingman area, speaking of the incredibly piss-poor and extremely selfish attitudes that many have here.
I sometimes wonder if there are 700 or so construction workers around these parts that would like to have a job throughout the better part of the next year and a half.
Wh..wh..wh.. wait a second. The county and town will still net $9 million over the next decade?? Like revenue they wouldn't of had otherwise... damn what a concept. Maybe a new park?? Or an upgrade to infrastructure?? Or a senior citizens center?? Hell, I'd settle for maintained roads.
Prudent and reasonable are terms that many anti-growth and anti-economic development types in Kingman need a dictionary for.
I originally found the normal three to five pretty good articles published within the last couple of days about positive economic development impacts sought out by other communities, but this first one kinda sapped my will to share all of them today. So only one more for today....
Hey I hear that there are a couple of very expensive clean tech projects being considered in this area. Probably backed by some level of venture capital. How will this community screw it up I wonder??
Hey, more construction jobs... through the end of next year... how 'bout that??
Yet having an interest of bringing in these sorts of encouraging activities practically amounts to a declaration of war from the anti-growthers.
Quite a list with many references of jobs already created or at least with plans to create jobs. Plus add in terms like manufacturing plants, relocation of company headquarters, and research & development center (might be a few good jobs available in those sorts of things). Even a mention of a public-private partnership, a radical concept unfamiliar to many locals -- unfortunately though because that also leads to jobs.
It is clear that in Colorado, and in many of the local communities there, that they have the jump on next generation opportunities for greater economic development. I wonder just how far we are being left behind and hope it won't be too late to get in this game.
There is one more on the Colorado governors list...
You bet... some in this community are fighting against a similar type of project here. Only going to create 20 jobs. Who needs those??
I've been a bit snarky with some of my comments as they pertain to the locals in this post, yet I feel no need to apologize for any of it. This town is losing badly right now as hundreds and maybe even thousands of other communities are 'working hard' to attract new investment and economic opportunity. While there may not be blood in the streets right now, there certainly are folks leaving the area in search of opportunity elsewhere. Good people. Folks that lived here a long time and invested in our neighborhoods and provided job opportunity.
You see, if the Kingman area was on the ball and doing such things as working together for real solutions to our own economic woes and just secured a smidgen of any of the above... to the city leaders I say -- think of the increased tax revenues... to those that are trying to sell their property -- think of the increased demand for housing... to those that own and operate a business -- think of the new opportunity... to those that allegedly report on the news -- think of the increased ad revenue... I could go on but by now you get the drift.
Now I just need a glass of water... before that is all gone.
So let's see what a couple of our fellow communities are up to these days...
Small city plucks a big plum in Apple
Technology giant will build a $1 billion data center in Maiden, enticed by millions in taxpayer incentives.
MAIDEN Three years ago, Catawba County economic development leaders targeted the data center market by developing a 183-acre business park outside Maiden, just west of U.S. 321.
On Monday, they announced a big catch: Apple's new $1 billion center – the California-based computer company's first on the East coast.
“This opportunity is… fabulous,” Catawba County Economic Development President Scott Millar said at a joint meeting of county commissioners and Maiden town council. “We went after it very hard.”
N.C. Secretary of Commerce Keith Crisco called the project the largest investment in state history. “It's a big deal,” he said. “The ripple effect will be enormous.”
Why not a surcharge??
Impressed though that it took only three years to pull that off. I'm not sure if the powers that be in Kingman have even started a clock on any ambitious plans, or even less ambitious plans above a program encouraging the good folks to shop locally.
For its part, North Carolina kicked in a multimillion-dollar tax break – $46 million over a decade for Apple's pledge to build the data center here and hire 50 fulltime employees.
$46 million for 50 jobs?? Guess that's why they call investments risky... but if the folks who made the decision are right... worth it, unless you prefer living in a turtle shell.
Crisco said the Apple data center represents the target for the next generation of North Carolina's economic development. As North Carolina's economy shifts away from manufacturing, it is the latest in a string of technology-related recruitments, including Google, which received an incentives deal in 2007 totaling about $260 million over 30 years for its data center in Lenoir.
Oh... like an investment into the future of the community. The only thing you hear about the future in Kingman is how there won't be any water, stated as an empirical fact even (those that say that though leave out all kinds of details and just offer rhetoric -- because it's cheap).
Maiden, a town of 3,500 people about 40 miles northwest of Charlotte, is known “as a big football center,” Mayor Bob Smyre said Monday, but now will be known as a computer data center.
All this for a tiny town of 3,500?? Plus; computers, data, a place to crunch and store data... I get the feeling that stuff like that will be around for quite some time. Maybe even outlive 'manufacturing' and the benefits it used to offer communities.
Getting Apple “was a lot of hard work,” he said. “But it was worth it. It's a dream come true.”
Smyre said the partnership between the town and the county “didn't really run into any snags because we were all on the same page.”
County commission chair Kitty Barnes said Catawba County beat out Virginia for the Apple center because “…of the community, the people and this location felt right.
“We're proud of our community,” she said. “And we welcome you with open arms.”
What?? There was competition for this thing?? And the community actually gave enough of a darn to 'work' for it?? That is an art-form that our community hasn't quite woken up to... and why it is being left behind.
In addition to 50 new full-time jobs, the center is expected to bring 250 indirect jobs and Millar said the impact could eventually be 3,000 jobs in related industries. He said salaries for full-time jobs will average about $50,000 a year. Hiring has not begun and will be announced by the EDC.
Wow, what a revelation... a small number of newly created jobs leads to even more jobs?? When you listen to the self anointed most wise elders around Kingman a number like 50 jobs means basically landscaping or janitorial positions, hardly worth the effort. But then again it may be the reason that low paying jobs are the most common in the Kingman area, speaking of the incredibly piss-poor and extremely selfish attitudes that many have here.
If all goes well, Millar said construction of the 500,000-square-foot building could begin in August. The project, which will employ about 750 construction workers, would be completed by late 2010.
I sometimes wonder if there are 700 or so construction workers around these parts that would like to have a job throughout the better part of the next year and a half.
Meeting at the Maiden Recreation Center, county and town officials approved incentives that will grant Apple 69 percent of the revenue stream over a 10-year period. But Millar said the county and town will get $9 million over the same period as a result of the project.
He described the incentives as “prudent and reasonable.”
Wh..wh..wh.. wait a second. The county and town will still net $9 million over the next decade?? Like revenue they wouldn't of had otherwise... damn what a concept. Maybe a new park?? Or an upgrade to infrastructure?? Or a senior citizens center?? Hell, I'd settle for maintained roads.
Prudent and reasonable are terms that many anti-growth and anti-economic development types in Kingman need a dictionary for.
I originally found the normal three to five pretty good articles published within the last couple of days about positive economic development impacts sought out by other communities, but this first one kinda sapped my will to share all of them today. So only one more for today....
Governor: Clean tech offers best job opportunities in current climate
DENVER - Colorado's economy continues to get a boost from so-called "clean technology" companies at a time when other industries are dramatically sagging, according to leading state economic development officials.
The latest evidence was announced on Monday at the State Capitol in the form of a 6,000-acre wind farm to be built just outside Burlington. It will be housed on the state's eastern plains welcoming any drivers coming from Kansas along Interstate 70.
"It's an important area for us," said Don Elliman, Colorado's Economic Development director. "Clean tech today is the place where venture capital is looking and Colorado is a place where they're looking very hard. I don't want to paint it as being the savior to everything because it's not, but can it be a significant piece of our recovery? The answer is yes, it can."
Hey I hear that there are a couple of very expensive clean tech projects being considered in this area. Probably backed by some level of venture capital. How will this community screw it up I wonder??
The wind farm announced Monday by the Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association and Duke Energy will provide energy for roughly 14,000 households in eastern Colorado and will hire roughly 150 people to construct the facility, so it can be operating by the end of 2010.
Hey, more construction jobs... through the end of next year... how 'bout that??
This comes after two major solar energy companies (Abound and Ascent) announced expansion plans in Colorado earlier this year and the hiring of hundreds of workers.
Elliman says negotiations are ongoing with "five to six" other solar and wind companies for similar-style projects in Colorado in the future.
"We all know how tough an economy this is, but the brightest and most encouraging activity continues to come from the New Energy Economy," Gov. Bill Ritter (D-Colorado) said.
Yet having an interest of bringing in these sorts of encouraging activities practically amounts to a declaration of war from the anti-growthers.
Below is a list from the governor's energy office of some of the recent job growth in this industry in the last year and a half.
• Denmark-based Vestas Blades opened its first North American manufacturing plant in Windsor in March 2008. Construction is underway on two additional plants in Brighton (wind blades and nacelles) and a tower manufacturing facility in Pueblo. Vestas' total commitment to Colorado represents a $700 million capital investment and 2,500 new jobs.
• Connecticut-based Hexcel Corp, a producer of carbon fiber and other advanced composite materials and a Vestas supplier, broke ground in early 2009 on a manufacturing facility in Windsor.
• Renewable Energy Systems America Inc. relocated from Texas to Colorado in March 2008. The company designs, builds and operates wind farms.
• Texas-based Dragon Wind will open a plant in Lamar to build wind towers.
• Siemens Energy, the second largest global wind turbine developer, announced Colorado will house its North American Research and Development Center.
• Woodward Governor announced in March 2008 it will add up to 100 employees in Northern Colorado. The company manufactures wind turbine inverters.
• Ascent Solar opened a new world headquarters and manufacturing facility in March 2009 for its flexible thin-film solar module. The company plans to add up to 200 news jobs over the next couple of years.
• AVA Solar, now Abound Solar, opened its manufacturing plant in Longmont in April 2009.
• Abengoa Solar has located its headquarters in Lakewood.
• PrimeStar Solar of Golden received more than $3 million in public-private funding to develop thin-film solar technologies.
• SunEdison's new photovoltaic facility generates power for 1,500 homes in the San Luis Valley and in 2008 was the nation's most productive photovoltaic solar plant. SunEdison opened an operations center in Westminster in 2008, bringing new jobs to the metro area.
• Solar Technology Acceleration Center (SolarTAC) announced it will build the nation's largest public-private partnership for solar-energy development in Aurora.
• ConocoPhillips will open a global research center for alternative fuels in Louisville.
Quite a list with many references of jobs already created or at least with plans to create jobs. Plus add in terms like manufacturing plants, relocation of company headquarters, and research & development center (might be a few good jobs available in those sorts of things). Even a mention of a public-private partnership, a radical concept unfamiliar to many locals -- unfortunately though because that also leads to jobs.
It is clear that in Colorado, and in many of the local communities there, that they have the jump on next generation opportunities for greater economic development. I wonder just how far we are being left behind and hope it won't be too late to get in this game.
There is one more on the Colorado governors list...
• Solix Biofuels, a Colorado State University spinoff company, will open the world's first commercial pilot facility outside of Durango to develop biofuel from algae.
You bet... some in this community are fighting against a similar type of project here. Only going to create 20 jobs. Who needs those??
I've been a bit snarky with some of my comments as they pertain to the locals in this post, yet I feel no need to apologize for any of it. This town is losing badly right now as hundreds and maybe even thousands of other communities are 'working hard' to attract new investment and economic opportunity. While there may not be blood in the streets right now, there certainly are folks leaving the area in search of opportunity elsewhere. Good people. Folks that lived here a long time and invested in our neighborhoods and provided job opportunity.
You see, if the Kingman area was on the ball and doing such things as working together for real solutions to our own economic woes and just secured a smidgen of any of the above... to the city leaders I say -- think of the increased tax revenues... to those that are trying to sell their property -- think of the increased demand for housing... to those that own and operate a business -- think of the new opportunity... to those that allegedly report on the news -- think of the increased ad revenue... I could go on but by now you get the drift.
Now I just need a glass of water... before that is all gone.
Friday, July 03, 2009
13 million acre feet of water...
Allow me to be the first to admit that when it comes to groundwater supplies in Mohave County, I'm the last person on earth that could accurately guess how much is under our very feet at this moment. However I still maintain the ability to find knowledgeable information resources because of this here thing called the Internet.
But even with what I'm about to share, and offer some scenarios, I ask that you seek out your own knowledgeable resources to determine your own conclusions. If you do, check them against what I am sharing here, let's compare notes, and perhaps have a nice conversation about what we have come to find out in our investigations.
I've never tried to speak with authority on important water issues here in the Kingman area. When I write a blog post here about the subject I always include a link to where I got the information I use to draw any conclusions, guesses, or play out scenarios.
Ever since I first became interested in water availability as a citizen of Kingman I have either listened intently or read thoroughly when others have offered information. I have listened to all sides of the water argument and over time I've been privy to shared information such as; there is an underground waterfall in one of the aquifers that spills zillions of gallons of water and in effect is a vast underground river with limitless supplies... to the highly reactive "oh my goodness, we will be out of water if another golf course is developed here in Mohave County". I'm just going to guess that perhaps the real story about the groundwater will eventually be found somewhere in between.
This blog post is not an attempt to find the real story about the groundwater resources, simply put I'm sharing another information resource to perhaps draw some rudimentary conclusions from.
I found this report on the Internet at the Arizona Department of Water Resources website. It is actually a USGS report. Below is some of the text included in that report under a subsection 'Hydrology and Water Use'. The report was published in March of 2006 and comes complete with attributable annotations made from a collection of reports spanning many years.
Below is a copied portion from the report...
My emphasis above and from that data I will use some math to draw some conclusions that you may or may not agree with. Before I do that I will repeat again that I am not an expert on water in any way shape or form (and I don't play one on TV). The data bit above about the groundwater storage in the three aquifers in this report totaling some 13,000,000 (million) acre feet of water is the center of my intrigue here. Yet I can't possibly know how or if it is possible to have access to that entire amount of water. However, I will presume that with todays existing technology that it is possible to tap all the groundwater resources -- if needed.
So on with the data...
From the data copied from the report above, the first thing I see is that the latest reported groundwater pumpage measured was 11,000 acre feet in 2005. The recent news of two proposed water using solar energy plants has brought up some discussion as to whether or not their reported heavy water use (3,000 acre feet a year on the high side) will negatively impact the water resources in the aquifers in Mohave County. So I want to figure out how long would it take for new growth (double the population) to empty out the aquifers. I'll double the use as reported in 2005 from 11,000 acre feet to 22,000 acre feet and even double the water use of the solar plants to 12,000 acre feet (to account for new commercial/industrial growth). When all is added up we are looking at 34,000 acre feet a year.
13,000,000 acre feet in the aquifers / 34,000 acre feet a year = just over 382 years of water.
That figure doesn't take into account the recharge rate of 9,000 acre feet of water as indicated on the report. 9,000 acre feet of water over 382 years comes out to 3.4 million acre feet of water or another 101 plus years of water at the usage rate of 34,000 acre feet a year.
So those conclusions are based on doubling the usage reported in 2005. Some folks believe this area will endure explosive growth (and some even tried to put a stop to it -- mission accomplished), fine I'll assume that the population uses 10 times more water than it was in 2005. I'll throw in another solar power plant or two as well. 11,000 acre feet x 10 = 110,000 acre feet. Four solar power plants using 6,000 acre feet of water a year = 24,000 acre feet. The total sum is now 134,000 acre feet of water usage a year.
13,000,000 acre feet in the aquifers / 134,000 acre feet a year = just over 97 years of water. Factoring in recharge and there is an additional 6.5 years of water.
No matter how you slice it, today there is plenty of water to use. Don't forget that even using the latter calculation, 97 years is a fairly long time and so much could change by then.
Arizona became a state 97 years ago.
The first flight between Paris and London took place 97 years ago, it took over 3 hours... today a train ride between the two cities takes 2.5 hours. Meaning that since that first flight, a large tunnel spanning a couple of hundred miles was engineered and fitted with a high speed train that moves all kinds of people to and from in less time than a previous technological marvel did decades ago. It took less than 10 years to build that tunnel to make it all happen.
That leads me to believe that in the future it won't likely be all that much a engineering marvel when the federal government, or a consortium of western states, get with the times enough to build a pipeline and a de-sal plant to deliver water to Lake Mead or somewhere else along the Colorado River to supply the resource to whatever kind of population centers exist in the area at that time.
Beyond that, who knows what sort of technologies may exist in the not too distant future that allow for more reuse of water supplies designed for desert communities that rely on groundwater (astronauts drink recycled urine and live to tell about it). Also the consideration of other technology improvements in solar power generating that may make the ones proposed here obsolete. Google search the term 'singularity' and be ready to be blown away about reports of our civilization harnessing all of the available energy on this planet by mid century (yes, this century) and perhaps all of the suns energy a century or so after that. Whether you can wrap your head around that or not, we here in Kingman would be better off thinking 97 years down the road instead of thinking back 97 years. We haven't seen anything yet.
I sorta went off on a tangent there so I'm bringing back to what we know about water in Mohave County according the USGS and ADWR from their report written in March of 2006.
13,000,000 (million) acre feet of water.
But even with what I'm about to share, and offer some scenarios, I ask that you seek out your own knowledgeable resources to determine your own conclusions. If you do, check them against what I am sharing here, let's compare notes, and perhaps have a nice conversation about what we have come to find out in our investigations.
I've never tried to speak with authority on important water issues here in the Kingman area. When I write a blog post here about the subject I always include a link to where I got the information I use to draw any conclusions, guesses, or play out scenarios.
Ever since I first became interested in water availability as a citizen of Kingman I have either listened intently or read thoroughly when others have offered information. I have listened to all sides of the water argument and over time I've been privy to shared information such as; there is an underground waterfall in one of the aquifers that spills zillions of gallons of water and in effect is a vast underground river with limitless supplies... to the highly reactive "oh my goodness, we will be out of water if another golf course is developed here in Mohave County". I'm just going to guess that perhaps the real story about the groundwater will eventually be found somewhere in between.
This blog post is not an attempt to find the real story about the groundwater resources, simply put I'm sharing another information resource to perhaps draw some rudimentary conclusions from.
I found this report on the Internet at the Arizona Department of Water Resources website. It is actually a USGS report. Below is some of the text included in that report under a subsection 'Hydrology and Water Use'. The report was published in March of 2006 and comes complete with attributable annotations made from a collection of reports spanning many years.
Below is a copied portion from the report...
Ground water from the basin-fill aquifer is the primary water supply for each of the three valleys. The older basin fill is the primary water-bearing deposit because intermediate and younger basin fill are above the water table in most areas. Most ground-water withdrawals in the valleys are for municipal and industrial uses; a small percentage of withdrawals is used for agriculture. The combined annual ground-water pumpage for the three valleys was about 6,600 acre-ft in 1991; by 2000, pumpage had nearly doubled to about 11,000 acre-ft (Tadayon, 2005). The combined annual recharge for the three valleys was estimated to be about 9,000 acre-ft (Freethey and Anderson, 1986), and ground-water storage was estimated to be about 13 million acre-ft (Arizona Department of Water Resources, 1994). Regional ground-water movement in the basin-fill aquifer generally is from the mountain fronts towards the valley center and then along the valley axis to the Colorado River. In general, depths to ground water are greatest in the upper parts of the valleys and decrease downgradient to within a few feet below the land surface near the Colorado River. The greatest depths to water are about 1,200 ft near the boundary between Detrital and Sacramento Valleys (Dillenburg, 1987; Rascona, 1991), and about 600 ft near Kingman in the Hualapai Valley (Remick, 1981).
Local ground water in consolidated rocks serves as a water supply in some areas, especially where rocks are faulted, fractured, and weathered (Gillespie and Bentley, 1971). In the Kingman area, volcanic rocks are locally permeable near two fault zones, and ground-water stored in the fractures has been used as part of the municipal water supply. Several springs issue from consolidated rocks and in some cases serve as water supplies for livestock and wildlife.
My emphasis above and from that data I will use some math to draw some conclusions that you may or may not agree with. Before I do that I will repeat again that I am not an expert on water in any way shape or form (and I don't play one on TV). The data bit above about the groundwater storage in the three aquifers in this report totaling some 13,000,000 (million) acre feet of water is the center of my intrigue here. Yet I can't possibly know how or if it is possible to have access to that entire amount of water. However, I will presume that with todays existing technology that it is possible to tap all the groundwater resources -- if needed.
So on with the data...
From the data copied from the report above, the first thing I see is that the latest reported groundwater pumpage measured was 11,000 acre feet in 2005. The recent news of two proposed water using solar energy plants has brought up some discussion as to whether or not their reported heavy water use (3,000 acre feet a year on the high side) will negatively impact the water resources in the aquifers in Mohave County. So I want to figure out how long would it take for new growth (double the population) to empty out the aquifers. I'll double the use as reported in 2005 from 11,000 acre feet to 22,000 acre feet and even double the water use of the solar plants to 12,000 acre feet (to account for new commercial/industrial growth). When all is added up we are looking at 34,000 acre feet a year.
13,000,000 acre feet in the aquifers / 34,000 acre feet a year = just over 382 years of water.
That figure doesn't take into account the recharge rate of 9,000 acre feet of water as indicated on the report. 9,000 acre feet of water over 382 years comes out to 3.4 million acre feet of water or another 101 plus years of water at the usage rate of 34,000 acre feet a year.
So those conclusions are based on doubling the usage reported in 2005. Some folks believe this area will endure explosive growth (and some even tried to put a stop to it -- mission accomplished), fine I'll assume that the population uses 10 times more water than it was in 2005. I'll throw in another solar power plant or two as well. 11,000 acre feet x 10 = 110,000 acre feet. Four solar power plants using 6,000 acre feet of water a year = 24,000 acre feet. The total sum is now 134,000 acre feet of water usage a year.
13,000,000 acre feet in the aquifers / 134,000 acre feet a year = just over 97 years of water. Factoring in recharge and there is an additional 6.5 years of water.
No matter how you slice it, today there is plenty of water to use. Don't forget that even using the latter calculation, 97 years is a fairly long time and so much could change by then.
Arizona became a state 97 years ago.
The first flight between Paris and London took place 97 years ago, it took over 3 hours... today a train ride between the two cities takes 2.5 hours. Meaning that since that first flight, a large tunnel spanning a couple of hundred miles was engineered and fitted with a high speed train that moves all kinds of people to and from in less time than a previous technological marvel did decades ago. It took less than 10 years to build that tunnel to make it all happen.
That leads me to believe that in the future it won't likely be all that much a engineering marvel when the federal government, or a consortium of western states, get with the times enough to build a pipeline and a de-sal plant to deliver water to Lake Mead or somewhere else along the Colorado River to supply the resource to whatever kind of population centers exist in the area at that time.
Beyond that, who knows what sort of technologies may exist in the not too distant future that allow for more reuse of water supplies designed for desert communities that rely on groundwater (astronauts drink recycled urine and live to tell about it). Also the consideration of other technology improvements in solar power generating that may make the ones proposed here obsolete. Google search the term 'singularity' and be ready to be blown away about reports of our civilization harnessing all of the available energy on this planet by mid century (yes, this century) and perhaps all of the suns energy a century or so after that. Whether you can wrap your head around that or not, we here in Kingman would be better off thinking 97 years down the road instead of thinking back 97 years. We haven't seen anything yet.
I sorta went off on a tangent there so I'm bringing back to what we know about water in Mohave County according the USGS and ADWR from their report written in March of 2006.
13,000,000 (million) acre feet of water.
Thursday, July 02, 2009
The great water facade
Now that we are in the month of July and the outside heater is working at full capacity again (after a rather cool June for our parts), I think back to a younger and more innocent time in my life. In those way past summers I'd set the lawn sprinkler on full blast and run back and forth for what seemed like hours. Sure, the lawn got some water in the process but for practical purposes I was just wasting water for entertainment.
No, I'm not writing the above because I yearn for the days of my youth... no not at all. It is just there have been a few local happenings in recent weeks about possible positive economic development projects in the news that has brought out the worst in some fellow locals. You see, the few but very loud water worry warts love to scream that any business that uses water as any sort of resource is a moral hazard and threatens the well being of the community. When I read stuff like that it simply takes me back to the time when I was clearly wasting water... and wish I was doing just that right now. The sooner the water is all gone, the sooner those folks will shut up is the way I'm justifying the thought of running through my lawn with the sprinklers on full blast.
If you are now thinking that I'm about to take out the scissors and make some cuts, well then pat yourself on the back 'cause you are correct sir (or ma'am).
If you weren't aware and only relied on the few water worry warts that appear at Mohave County meetings -- or read remarks made by mostly folks that are too fearful to identify themselves at the KDM's website -- or happen to stumble into some underground meeting in Golden Valley where plots to boycott business people who like to play golf... you'd be left to believe that at any moment in the next hour, day, or week that all water resources in Mohave County will be gone.
A couple of months back a little blurb was in the paper talking about a new business that has plans to open out at the local airport center. This business venture is one where they will produce vodka and other spirits. One water worry wart responded that they are upset because the distillery will use all the water in Mohave County. Seriously. This is what this area is up against when it comes to efforts to bring economic development to this general location.
The water worry warts would only have a case to make if they actually knew how much water remained from where the liquid comes from. Yet they have nothing and never have bothered to offer anything real in terms of any sort of proof on which they bitch and whine about. Oh I've heard the water worry warts say that they know of some wells that have run dry, and that the owner of the well had to drill down further to access more water, or that the well ran dry and the property owner didn't have enough money to drill down further for access to more water. Not exactly proof that the entire county will be left without water in the foreseeable future.
Still, other water worry warts have some charts that show data that indicate that water levels in a city owned well have dropped over the last 50 years. Makes for a nice visual to scare unsuspecting people that happen to come across the chart, but it hardly proves anything and it absolutely answers nothing in regards to how much water is left and when will it be all gone.
Click on this link for such an example.
There you'll find this as the header for the chart...
No, it won't take a rocket scientist to see anything on that chart. It also won't take a math whiz to figure out that the data doesn't suggest that water is about to run out in MY lifetime. On the chart you will see that the water level has dropped an estimated 71 feet in 45 years and a few months. Now I don't know what the population was in 1963 around here or what sort of commercial/industrial activity was taking place at the time, but I'm still not nearly as concerned as the promoter of the chart trying to make a point.
Another point to consider is that water is found at the depth of 582 feet, according to the figure below the label 'DTW (ft)' on that chart (it actually looks like the last data point is at the 579 foot level though but I'll use the what it says at the top of the chart anyway). The well itself was originally drilled down to a depth of 1000 feet in 1963. The original reading of the level of the well back then was approximately 511 feet deep. Check my math but that there is still an estimated 418 feet of water in that well. If we use the rate of 71 feet of water every 45 years then that means there is approximately 265 years worth of water left in that well.
Oh, I bet we are drawing water out of that well a bit faster these days than we were from 20 years ago because of all the new people that have multiplied or otherwise moved to the area. So let's say that, based on more recent water level readings of the chart, we find that the well drops 3.5 feet a year, that means the well runs dry in a little over 119 years.
Maybe the community ends up using enough water to average 5 feet a year... it will still take 83 years to use all the water in that well.
And that is just that particular well... and actually more importantly, that well drilled at that depth. But maybe someone out there could tell me what could happen if the well was drilled another 500 feet, or a 1,000 feet?? I mean I can't say for certain. Is there more water below that level, or that 1,000 feet the maximum length a well can be drilled for?? Is anyone even curious?? Maybe we find out sometime in the next 120 years and I look forward to that conversation with the person that so loves to use this chart then (if only each of us lives that long).
All this worry, all this hand wringing, in the midst of what is reported to be a bad drought and there is still decades, and perhaps centuries, worth of water in one particular well.
Alright, enough with the water stuff since no one to this point has any data suggesting how much water there actually is or when it will all be gone. In fact water is not really the overarching issue, economic development actually is.
Here is the article from the KDMiner that appeared today, and I'll take some excerpts out and play with them a bit below...
Funny that the main concern was about the use of water, but those concerned probably didn't have anything to back up their concerns. And in fact probably ignored any data that the representatives from the power generating plant offered. The water worry warts are already convinced... with zero data... and have a very closed mind.
So let's see some of those concerns...
The old first rule of fighting against economic development is to wave the 'General Plan' about frantically, check. When, again, did the General Plan become the final plan that can never be changed or at the very least be anything other than a guide for potential development when it was originally written or legally amended over time??
Anyone want to bet that what Mr. Stephens shared at the meeting received absolutely no consideration from the water worry warts in attendance?? No takers?? Read on...
Glad you didn't take my bet, aren't you?? Also funny that these same sort of water worry warts were completely against a master planned community just a short time ago and had concerns about the tens of thousands of homes that were planned to be built as if they would be built and sold in a matter of months instead of several years. Above it is only hundreds of homes in several years. My, how the story changes to fit the particular battle against economic development.
Moving on...
The second rule for poo-pooing economic development is to once again refer to the General Plan and then infer that any developer only wants to use ALL the water there is and ever will be from wherever it is it comes from here in Mohave County, check again (follow that play book).
Notice the snide 'however he did it' in reference to the developer that spent gobs of money on hydrologists and obtaining all the legal permissions needed at all levels of government to develop his own property. Has anyone asked Ms. Bensusan 'however she did it' i.e. coming to the absolute conclusion that a developer will use all the water in Mohave County?? Or... I hope for this I really do... or are the powers that be simply ignoring her and her silly and unproven viewpoints??
So darn funny. No guarantees though, what I mean is that any private property owner that intends to develop his/her property would only 'probably' see a less hostile group if they did exactly what Ms. Bensusan and her merry band of anti-economic development cohorts want. Watching these folks over the last few years at least has left me with the conclusion that hostility is the only tactic they have to use (I've seen their crappy newsletters).
Moving on...
Probably the smartest person in the room at that meeting.
I like Mr. Riley just fine and do not think he is a water worry wart, but I don't see how this would be a concern unless our local energy provider insisted on only buying energy from a plant that may or may not sell energy at higher prices.
Who cares if an out of state energy user is the highest bidder?? This is really a concern?? If UniSource runs low on electricity, then they will be the highest bidder (and our rates will go up).
I don't know Mr. Hummel so I won't lop him in with the water worry warts, but if the prior concern was true and the energy produced at the solar plant was more expensive, what would be the benefit to the residents?? Forcing the locals into higher electricity rates is not a benefit last time I checked. I'm sure Mr. Hummel and many other residents use water here in Mohave County, how are they benefiting other residents by use of their water??
The article goes on to say that the development group wouldn't articulate on the number of jobs needed for the plant to run, but a few weeks ago the initial information spoke of approximately 100 permanent jobs and 1,000 construction jobs to build the plant. Sounds like an economic development benefit might be rattling around in there somewhere and really not that difficult to identify when residents are losing jobs, seeing opportunities evaporate, services threatened, and even property values diminish further than they may have had to.
I wouldn't be surprised if the water worry warts totally disregarded any or all of the above either. If the water worry warts are really concerned here about these solar power producing plants here in Mohave County, they may want to take the issue up to the state level and question the requirements on energy use recently passed into law. If they do head to the state capitol, there they will find a state government that believes this area has plenty of water with one eye on perhaps using some for itself, as needed.
Then there is this...
... obviously not a water worry wart and I won't comment on the cultural side of the issue.
And lastly, one person that spoke in favor of the idea for this development to move forward said this...
As a business owner myself, I too am encouraged when I hear about the possibility of new investment and economic development in this area. I hope more is done to bring more opportunity to our community... well... at least until all the water is gone. I'll do my part as I run through the sprinklers later on.
No, I'm not writing the above because I yearn for the days of my youth... no not at all. It is just there have been a few local happenings in recent weeks about possible positive economic development projects in the news that has brought out the worst in some fellow locals. You see, the few but very loud water worry warts love to scream that any business that uses water as any sort of resource is a moral hazard and threatens the well being of the community. When I read stuff like that it simply takes me back to the time when I was clearly wasting water... and wish I was doing just that right now. The sooner the water is all gone, the sooner those folks will shut up is the way I'm justifying the thought of running through my lawn with the sprinklers on full blast.
If you are now thinking that I'm about to take out the scissors and make some cuts, well then pat yourself on the back 'cause you are correct sir (or ma'am).
If you weren't aware and only relied on the few water worry warts that appear at Mohave County meetings -- or read remarks made by mostly folks that are too fearful to identify themselves at the KDM's website -- or happen to stumble into some underground meeting in Golden Valley where plots to boycott business people who like to play golf... you'd be left to believe that at any moment in the next hour, day, or week that all water resources in Mohave County will be gone.
A couple of months back a little blurb was in the paper talking about a new business that has plans to open out at the local airport center. This business venture is one where they will produce vodka and other spirits. One water worry wart responded that they are upset because the distillery will use all the water in Mohave County. Seriously. This is what this area is up against when it comes to efforts to bring economic development to this general location.
The water worry warts would only have a case to make if they actually knew how much water remained from where the liquid comes from. Yet they have nothing and never have bothered to offer anything real in terms of any sort of proof on which they bitch and whine about. Oh I've heard the water worry warts say that they know of some wells that have run dry, and that the owner of the well had to drill down further to access more water, or that the well ran dry and the property owner didn't have enough money to drill down further for access to more water. Not exactly proof that the entire county will be left without water in the foreseeable future.
Still, other water worry warts have some charts that show data that indicate that water levels in a city owned well have dropped over the last 50 years. Makes for a nice visual to scare unsuspecting people that happen to come across the chart, but it hardly proves anything and it absolutely answers nothing in regards to how much water is left and when will it be all gone.
Click on this link for such an example.
There you'll find this as the header for the chart...
This "Depth to Water" chart from the Arizona Dept. of Water Resources (ADWR) shows the rapidly dropping water level from a City of Kingman well in the Hualapai aquifer. It is obvious that the level has been dropping from the day the well came into production. It isn't rocket science to see that just the City of Kingman draw alone is beyond the recovery rate.
No, it won't take a rocket scientist to see anything on that chart. It also won't take a math whiz to figure out that the data doesn't suggest that water is about to run out in MY lifetime. On the chart you will see that the water level has dropped an estimated 71 feet in 45 years and a few months. Now I don't know what the population was in 1963 around here or what sort of commercial/industrial activity was taking place at the time, but I'm still not nearly as concerned as the promoter of the chart trying to make a point.
Another point to consider is that water is found at the depth of 582 feet, according to the figure below the label 'DTW (ft)' on that chart (it actually looks like the last data point is at the 579 foot level though but I'll use the what it says at the top of the chart anyway). The well itself was originally drilled down to a depth of 1000 feet in 1963. The original reading of the level of the well back then was approximately 511 feet deep. Check my math but that there is still an estimated 418 feet of water in that well. If we use the rate of 71 feet of water every 45 years then that means there is approximately 265 years worth of water left in that well.
Oh, I bet we are drawing water out of that well a bit faster these days than we were from 20 years ago because of all the new people that have multiplied or otherwise moved to the area. So let's say that, based on more recent water level readings of the chart, we find that the well drops 3.5 feet a year, that means the well runs dry in a little over 119 years.
Maybe the community ends up using enough water to average 5 feet a year... it will still take 83 years to use all the water in that well.
And that is just that particular well... and actually more importantly, that well drilled at that depth. But maybe someone out there could tell me what could happen if the well was drilled another 500 feet, or a 1,000 feet?? I mean I can't say for certain. Is there more water below that level, or that 1,000 feet the maximum length a well can be drilled for?? Is anyone even curious?? Maybe we find out sometime in the next 120 years and I look forward to that conversation with the person that so loves to use this chart then (if only each of us lives that long).
All this worry, all this hand wringing, in the midst of what is reported to be a bad drought and there is still decades, and perhaps centuries, worth of water in one particular well.
Alright, enough with the water stuff since no one to this point has any data suggesting how much water there actually is or when it will all be gone. In fact water is not really the overarching issue, economic development actually is.
Here is the article from the KDMiner that appeared today, and I'll take some excerpts out and play with them a bit below...
KINGMAN -The public got its first chance to comment on a 340-megawatt solar facility planned for the Red Lake area 27 miles north of Kingman. And water was the topic of conversation.
Representatives from Mohave Sun Power spoke about the Hualapai Valley Solar Project to stakeholders and residents during its first public meeting Tuesday morning at the Hampton Inn in Kingman. They gave a description of how the concentrated solar plant works and the 18-month permitting process the company will have to go through before construction can start.
The main concern raised by residents and stakeholders attending the meeting was the use of water to generate steam and cool the plant's turbines. The plant is estimated to use between 1,500 to 3,000 acre feet of water a year.
Funny that the main concern was about the use of water, but those concerned probably didn't have anything to back up their concerns. And in fact probably ignored any data that the representatives from the power generating plant offered. The water worry warts are already convinced... with zero data... and have a very closed mind.
So let's see some of those concerns...
How much the plant will use depends on the quality of the water, said Greg Bartlett, project manager for the Hualapai Valley Solar plant.
The Mohave County General Plan requires the use of dry cooling in power plants, especially if the aquifer is being depleted, said resident Denise Bensusan. Dry cooling technology uses air instead of water to cool the turbines.
The old first rule of fighting against economic development is to wave the 'General Plan' about frantically, check. When, again, did the General Plan become the final plan that can never be changed or at the very least be anything other than a guide for potential development when it was originally written or legally amended over time??
A study by the property owner, which is currently Rhodes Homes, and several hydrologists shows there is more than enough water for the plant without drawing down the aquifer, said Chris Stephens, an advisor to Mohave Sun, who has worked for Rhodes Homes in the past.
Anyone want to bet that what Mr. Stephens shared at the meeting received absolutely no consideration from the water worry warts in attendance?? No takers?? Read on...
It was unfair to compare a large residential development with hundreds of homes, which would be built over several years, to a solar plant that would be built in three years, Bensusan said.
Glad you didn't take my bet, aren't you?? Also funny that these same sort of water worry warts were completely against a master planned community just a short time ago and had concerns about the tens of thousands of homes that were planned to be built as if they would be built and sold in a matter of months instead of several years. Above it is only hundreds of homes in several years. My, how the story changes to fit the particular battle against economic development.
Moving on...
"We live in the middle of a desert," she said. "You come into our community and you want to build a solar power plant, wonderful, good, if you follow the guidelines we have in place.
"Just because Mr. Rhodes slipped this through, however he did it, doesn't mean that you can come in here and use it all," Bensusan said. The technology is available to use dry cooling in the power plant.
The second rule for poo-pooing economic development is to once again refer to the General Plan and then infer that any developer only wants to use ALL the water there is and ever will be from wherever it is it comes from here in Mohave County, check again (follow that play book).
Notice the snide 'however he did it' in reference to the developer that spent gobs of money on hydrologists and obtaining all the legal permissions needed at all levels of government to develop his own property. Has anyone asked Ms. Bensusan 'however she did it' i.e. coming to the absolute conclusion that a developer will use all the water in Mohave County?? Or... I hope for this I really do... or are the powers that be simply ignoring her and her silly and unproven viewpoints??
"You would probably see a less hostile group in front of you if you would do things that are right and proper for a desert area," she said.
So darn funny. No guarantees though, what I mean is that any private property owner that intends to develop his/her property would only 'probably' see a less hostile group if they did exactly what Ms. Bensusan and her merry band of anti-economic development cohorts want. Watching these folks over the last few years at least has left me with the conclusion that hostility is the only tactic they have to use (I've seen their crappy newsletters).
Moving on...
Everyone seems to have different facts on how much water there is, said one resident.
Probably the smartest person in the room at that meeting.
What about the cost of electricity to the public, asked Bob Riley, economic development director for the Kingman Airport Authority. The price for alternative energy can be as much as 50 percent higher than electricity that comes from traditional sources.
I like Mr. Riley just fine and do not think he is a water worry wart, but I don't see how this would be a concern unless our local energy provider insisted on only buying energy from a plant that may or may not sell energy at higher prices.
Residents also expressed concern that the energy would be sold to the highest bidder, which could be an out-of-state agency.
Who cares if an out of state energy user is the highest bidder?? This is really a concern?? If UniSource runs low on electricity, then they will be the highest bidder (and our rates will go up).
The solar plant would be using water from Mohave County to generate electricity that residents could never benefit from, said Jack Hummel, another resident.
I don't know Mr. Hummel so I won't lop him in with the water worry warts, but if the prior concern was true and the energy produced at the solar plant was more expensive, what would be the benefit to the residents?? Forcing the locals into higher electricity rates is not a benefit last time I checked. I'm sure Mr. Hummel and many other residents use water here in Mohave County, how are they benefiting other residents by use of their water??
The article goes on to say that the development group wouldn't articulate on the number of jobs needed for the plant to run, but a few weeks ago the initial information spoke of approximately 100 permanent jobs and 1,000 construction jobs to build the plant. Sounds like an economic development benefit might be rattling around in there somewhere and really not that difficult to identify when residents are losing jobs, seeing opportunities evaporate, services threatened, and even property values diminish further than they may have had to.
The state of Arizona had required all electrical utilities to get about 15 percent of their power from green energy sources by 2025, Bartlett said. Currently, there are not enough green energy sources in the state to meet that mandate.
Also, the company has no way of controlling where the electricity generated by the plant goes, he said. The company will have a contract with a power provider, such as UniSource or APS, and once the electricity is put on the grid it can be shuttled anywhere, he said.
I wouldn't be surprised if the water worry warts totally disregarded any or all of the above either. If the water worry warts are really concerned here about these solar power producing plants here in Mohave County, they may want to take the issue up to the state level and question the requirements on energy use recently passed into law. If they do head to the state capitol, there they will find a state government that believes this area has plenty of water with one eye on perhaps using some for itself, as needed.
Then there is this...
One major concern raised during the meeting was the cultural significance of the site to the Hualapai Indian Tribe. The area holds a special significance to the tribe, especially in its creation stories, said Loretta Jackson-Kelly, the tribe's historic preservation officer.
"It's something you can't touch," she said, referring to the cultural importance of the site. The plant would be a desecration of a sacred area, she said. "I can't go to the elders and tell them that they're going to be offering jobs for this, so maybe it's all right. You can't mitigate this away. This is cultural genocide."
... obviously not a water worry wart and I won't comment on the cultural side of the issue.
And lastly, one person that spoke in favor of the idea for this development to move forward said this...
Debra Sixta, a local real estate representative, spoke out in favor of the project.
"I'm encouraged that such a business would want to come to our area," she said, and that the company is being open about its business and hasn't tried to hide anything.
As a business owner myself, I too am encouraged when I hear about the possibility of new investment and economic development in this area. I hope more is done to bring more opportunity to our community... well... at least until all the water is gone. I'll do my part as I run through the sprinklers later on.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
June Listings Report (2009)
Six months gone in 2009 and today we begin the first day of the last half of the year. Where does the time go?? Who has the charts or the data tables for that??
Anyway, here are four numbers that I am throwing at you; 74, 70, 85, 88... they mark the total number of new contracts taken in each of the last four consecutive months. The sum total equals 317 (check my math). Stay with me for a second, by most accounts the once raging local housing market began to tank noticeably in 2006 and in the first four consecutive months of that year (January through April of '06) I reported a total of 287 new contracts which until a couple of months ago would have been the highest number of new contracts taken in any four month stretch. By comparison, the worst four month stretch was from October '07 through January '08 where only 123 new contracts were written.
No this does not mean that the Kingman housing market is out of the woods just yet, but perhaps it is at least off life support. Activity for the last four months is up over 157% from the worst four consecutive months going back to the beginning of 2006.
Of course there is a 'cause' for this surge in activity. The average marketing price of the new contracts taken the last four months is down over 37% from that period that saw the worst activity level, and down over 46% from the first four months of 2006 (the stretch with the 287 contracts).
I'll compare activity levels of the first six months of this year to the first half of the years going back to 2006 after the June listings and pending report below, of course the disclaimer comes first...
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
I was hoping not to see the new listing number come back up to where it was previously. I liked the number from May much better, but even so the total number of available listings held steady with just a small increase. As you can also see from the numbers above that the banks put more listings on the market, close to double the amount from the month before (but hey, they certainly are moving them).
Of the new listings 17 are already under contract and two more already closed. So the market is absorbing the well priced listings at a better pace. Would be buyers have to pay closer attention if they want the lowest priced and best perceived value listings as they won't last long.
Not much in noticeable changes in the pending contract figures other than in the average marketing time (down basically a months time) and the average price reduction amount -- but that may be due to the 19 new listings that are already under contract or have closed escrow. When a property is priced correctly to the market, there is no time for price reductions.
Year over year data listings/pending contracts
No real changes in the trends since I started doing the year over year stuff earlier this year. However even in the continued pace of the trends, the market continues to favor the buyers over the sellers. That will not change until there is a better balance between the available properties listed for sale and the number of buyers in the market at any given time. It is getting better on this front, but slowly.
Earlier in this post I said that I would do some comparisons of activity levels for the first half of each year going back to 2006, we'll look at new listing activity in terms of units first.
As you can see the trend is favorable to achieve balance but like I mentioned before -- true balance may yet be still a long way off. The numbers should give you some indication of just how out of balance the market was though, especially when you take into account the following pending activity in terms of units over the same time frames below...
A nice bit of a bounce-back so far this year, but I know it can't feel all that great for current sellers because for those that attracted buyers in the first six months of this year were marketing their property for 43% less than they were in 2006 on average. But if there is a sliver of optimism to be found, this year there were 38% fewer sellers as compared to the number of sellers in 2006 for little above the same number of buyers.
Same time, same place, next month?? You bet, see you then.
Anyway, here are four numbers that I am throwing at you; 74, 70, 85, 88... they mark the total number of new contracts taken in each of the last four consecutive months. The sum total equals 317 (check my math). Stay with me for a second, by most accounts the once raging local housing market began to tank noticeably in 2006 and in the first four consecutive months of that year (January through April of '06) I reported a total of 287 new contracts which until a couple of months ago would have been the highest number of new contracts taken in any four month stretch. By comparison, the worst four month stretch was from October '07 through January '08 where only 123 new contracts were written.
No this does not mean that the Kingman housing market is out of the woods just yet, but perhaps it is at least off life support. Activity for the last four months is up over 157% from the worst four consecutive months going back to the beginning of 2006.
Of course there is a 'cause' for this surge in activity. The average marketing price of the new contracts taken the last four months is down over 37% from that period that saw the worst activity level, and down over 46% from the first four months of 2006 (the stretch with the 287 contracts).
I'll compare activity levels of the first six months of this year to the first half of the years going back to 2006 after the June listings and pending report below, of course the disclaimer comes first...
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Data tables for all new listings tracked in the month of June 2009
| Item | Total Units | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Total Listings On Market | 429 | 423 |
| Total Listings Listed as Foreclosed | 54 | 48 |
| Item | Month of June | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| New Listings Total | 108 | 78 |
| New Listings Listed as Foreclosed | 41 | 24 |
| Average Asking Price Per Unit | $151,747 | $163,294 |
| Median Asking Price | $120,400 | $120,000 |
| Average Asking Price Per Square Foot | $93 | $102 |
| Units Re-Listed | 7 | 12 |
| Units Already Under Contract | 17 | 11 |
| Item | Month of June | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Living Area Square Footage | 1,629 | 1,603 |
| Bedrooms | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Bathrooms | 2.06 | 2.03 |
| Garage | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Year Built | 1996 | 1994 |
| Item | Lowest | Highest |
| Listings | $39,600 | $565,000 |
I was hoping not to see the new listing number come back up to where it was previously. I liked the number from May much better, but even so the total number of available listings held steady with just a small increase. As you can also see from the numbers above that the banks put more listings on the market, close to double the amount from the month before (but hey, they certainly are moving them).
Of the new listings 17 are already under contract and two more already closed. So the market is absorbing the well priced listings at a better pace. Would be buyers have to pay closer attention if they want the lowest priced and best perceived value listings as they won't last long.
Data tables for all new Units under contract tracked in the month of June 2009
| Item | Total Units | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Total Units Under Contract | 139 | 144 |
| Total Contracts Listed as Foreclosed | 61 | 63 |
| Item | Month of June | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| New Contracts Total | 74 | 70 |
| New Contracts Listed as Foreclosed | 38 | 36 |
| Average Marketing Price Per Unit | $130,376 | $123,585 |
| Median Marketing Price | $104,900 | $114,900 |
| Average Marketing Price Per Square Foot | $79 | $80 |
| Days on Market to Acquire a Contract | 106 | 137 |
| Average Marketing Price Reduction | $10,864 | $18,570 |
| Item | Month of June | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Living Area Square Footage | 1,642 | 1,548 |
| Bedrooms | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Bathrooms | 2.1 | 2 |
| Garage | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Year Built | 1994 | 1996 |
| Item | Lowest | Highest |
| Listings | $29,000 | $371,500 |
Not much in noticeable changes in the pending contract figures other than in the average marketing time (down basically a months time) and the average price reduction amount -- but that may be due to the 19 new listings that are already under contract or have closed escrow. When a property is priced correctly to the market, there is no time for price reductions.
Year over year data listings/pending contracts
| Item | UP/DOWN | unit/dollar amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Listings | DOWN | 165 | (28%) |
| New Listings in June | DOWN | 1 | (.9%) |
| Average Price per New Listing | DOWN | $54,809 | (26.5%) |
| Median List Price | DOWN | $36,000 | (23%) |
| Item | UP/DOWN | unit/dollar amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Pending Contracts | UP | 49 | 54% |
| New Contracts for June | UP | 21 | 40% |
| Average Marketing Price per Unit | DOWN | $59,786 | (31%) |
| Median Marketing Price | DOWN | $47,550 | (31%) |
No real changes in the trends since I started doing the year over year stuff earlier this year. However even in the continued pace of the trends, the market continues to favor the buyers over the sellers. That will not change until there is a better balance between the available properties listed for sale and the number of buyers in the market at any given time. It is getting better on this front, but slowly.
Earlier in this post I said that I would do some comparisons of activity levels for the first half of each year going back to 2006, we'll look at new listing activity in terms of units first.
In the first half of 2006 there were 980 new listings
In the first half of 2007 there were 819 new listings
In the first half of 2008 there were 687 new listings
In the first half of 2009 there were 606 new listings
As you can see the trend is favorable to achieve balance but like I mentioned before -- true balance may yet be still a long way off. The numbers should give you some indication of just how out of balance the market was though, especially when you take into account the following pending activity in terms of units over the same time frames below...
In the first half of 2006 there were 409 new contracts
In the first half of 2007 there were 306 new contracts
In the first half of 2008 there were 283 new contracts
In the first half of 2009 there were 434 new contracts
A nice bit of a bounce-back so far this year, but I know it can't feel all that great for current sellers because for those that attracted buyers in the first six months of this year were marketing their property for 43% less than they were in 2006 on average. But if there is a sliver of optimism to be found, this year there were 38% fewer sellers as compared to the number of sellers in 2006 for little above the same number of buyers.
Same time, same place, next month?? You bet, see you then.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Tea time again...
Just as a friendly public service announcement, it is Tea Party time again here in the Kingman area. This event will be held at Centennial Park in Kingman on Saturday July 4th from 4:00pm to 7:00pm. Find more information here at this link.
A couple of days ago in Nashville Tennessee, I guess those folks just couldn't wait for their tea, check out the photo below...
Not bad, certainly a goodly amount of people.
Last time the Tea Party was held in Kingman, the local editor of the local daily wrote a column that basically called Tea Party attendees racists (for lack of a better word). I took him to task on this blog for his transgression here.
Attending the Nashville Tea Party...
and...
(all photos found at Instapundit.com)
... were just some of the great Americans that attended and let their thoughts be known.
And really that is what the Tea Parties are all about. Americans letting the government know they are on notice. This isn't about the skin color of the president. At this point, my criticism is mostly for the republicans in our state legislature and executive office for not cutting enough spending of money they simply don't have at the moment... basically for not being the fiscal conservatives that many say they are. The race thing though, just completely stupid and not even on the map as an important issue for the current times we face.
Yeah, you could say that I'm still kinda pissed off about what the editor wrote back in April... and he still owes great Americans an apology.
One prediction, there won't be any snow flurries on Saturday (like there was on April 15th), so dress accordingly -- I'll be taking photos with the intention of posting them on this blog.
For more reading about the local Tea Party, check out Loyd's blog (yeah, that Loyd) today.
A couple of days ago in Nashville Tennessee, I guess those folks just couldn't wait for their tea, check out the photo below...
Not bad, certainly a goodly amount of people.Last time the Tea Party was held in Kingman, the local editor of the local daily wrote a column that basically called Tea Party attendees racists (for lack of a better word). I took him to task on this blog for his transgression here.
Attending the Nashville Tea Party...
and...(all photos found at Instapundit.com)... were just some of the great Americans that attended and let their thoughts be known.
And really that is what the Tea Parties are all about. Americans letting the government know they are on notice. This isn't about the skin color of the president. At this point, my criticism is mostly for the republicans in our state legislature and executive office for not cutting enough spending of money they simply don't have at the moment... basically for not being the fiscal conservatives that many say they are. The race thing though, just completely stupid and not even on the map as an important issue for the current times we face.
Yeah, you could say that I'm still kinda pissed off about what the editor wrote back in April... and he still owes great Americans an apology.
One prediction, there won't be any snow flurries on Saturday (like there was on April 15th), so dress accordingly -- I'll be taking photos with the intention of posting them on this blog.
For more reading about the local Tea Party, check out Loyd's blog (yeah, that Loyd) today.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Another buyer assistance program for foreclosure homes
I meant to post something about this last week, after Evan from the Bullhead City Blog put up his post on the subject. Well, I'm getting around to it.
See for yourself, see for yourselfers.
Copied from Evans blog...
Link to the YourWayHomeAZ site.
Also, Evan and I will be recording our next podcast tomorrow. If you have any subjects that you'd like us to discuss drop a line in the comments or email me.
See for yourself, see for yourselfers.
Copied from Evans blog...
Keep in mind these terms are specific to the Arizona Department of Housing program in Mohave County, which may be different that those programs offered throughout the state by various partners.
I want to emphasize that, yes, this is a loan. But it’s a second loan with no payments, so it is not factored into qualifying for the purchase. Say you have a purchase price of $100,000 with 3.5% down payment ($3,500). Your first loan would be $74,5000 ($100,000 minus $22,000 second, minus $3,500 down payment). Your payments would be based on that $74,500.
There is no payment and no interest on the $22,000 second. Should you own the home for 10 years, the second loan is forgiven. If you sell the home sooner, you will owe the $22,000, but with no interest.
This program makes it easier for people to qualify and afford a home, while at the same time encouraging the sale of foreclosures thereby putting those homes back in the hands of humans who will occupy the home instead of leaving them vacant while they sit on the books of banks across the country.
Link to the YourWayHomeAZ site.
Also, Evan and I will be recording our next podcast tomorrow. If you have any subjects that you'd like us to discuss drop a line in the comments or email me.
The guessing keep on coming...
Just a quick little article that I found about a couple of writers that have done some research on the value of homes in the future (2012 time frame).
Check it out, check it outers.
Here is a bit from the closest market they make a prediction for...
My prediction?? Only that predictions will continue to come rolling in... and at some point someone will claim they were right. Clearly out on a limb there, aren't I??
Check it out, check it outers.
Here is a bit from the closest market they make a prediction for...
9. Arizona
Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale
What a Home Will Be Worth in 2012: $141,859
Q4 2008 price: $169,000
Projected price change by MSA: -16.1%
Projected price change by state: -17.2%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale is one of the worst-hit housing markets in the country. Retirees, empty-nesters, and others flocked to the area during the boom for its warm weather, relative affordability, and recreational opportunities. And so did builders. Many of the new homes built during the boom have since been repossessed.
My prediction?? Only that predictions will continue to come rolling in... and at some point someone will claim they were right. Clearly out on a limb there, aren't I??
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Political example of efforts to induce economic development...
Link right here to a WSJ piece. I'm copying bits of it (more like all of it) below and adding some commentary...
Dude... what has got into the dem's in Maine?? Sort the way I wonder what has gotten into the republican's here in Arizona... for the wrong and opposite reasons.
Without even looking into the data, the exchange of reduced income tax for the ability of closing sales tax loopholes is an easy compromise. Throw in a healthy budget cut to boot... again brought to the residents of Maine by the 'left' side of the political aisle.
I may be switching my political affiliation, would be easier than moving to Maine (no offense Maine, I just like the western part of the lower 48 better).
Political leaders of Arizona should be embarrassed.
Now for the money quote...
Only a 2x4 upside the head hits harder.
I wish Maine much success and fortune. Obviously I hope that the federal government takes notice, as well as the state of Arizona and most importantly that the elected leaders of Kingman take note of the fundamentals. Face it folks, 'Shop Here!' doesn't pack the same sort of wallop.
At last, there's a place in America where tax cutting to promote growth and attract jobs is back in fashion. Who would have thought it would be Maine?
This month the Democratic legislature and Governor John Baldacci broke with Obamanomics and enacted a sweeping tax reform that is almost, but not quite, a flat tax.
Dude... what has got into the dem's in Maine?? Sort the way I wonder what has gotten into the republican's here in Arizona... for the wrong and opposite reasons.
The new law junks the state's graduated income tax structure with a top rate of 8.5% and replaces it with a simple 6.5% flat rate tax on almost everyone. Those with earnings above $250,000 will pay a surtax rate of 0.35%, for a 6.85% rate. Maine's tax rate will fall to 20th from seventh highest among the states. To offset the lower rates and a larger family deduction, the plan cuts the state budget by some $300 million to $5.8 billion, closes tax loopholes and expands the 5% state sales tax to services that have been exempt, such as ski lift tickets.
Without even looking into the data, the exchange of reduced income tax for the ability of closing sales tax loopholes is an easy compromise. Throw in a healthy budget cut to boot... again brought to the residents of Maine by the 'left' side of the political aisle.
This is a big income tax cut, especially given that so many other states in the Northeast and East -- Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York -- have been increasing rates. "We're definitely going against the grain here," Mr. Baldacci tells us. "We hope these lower tax rates will encourage and reward work, and that the lower capital gains tax [of 6.85%] brings more investment into the state."
I may be switching my political affiliation, would be easier than moving to Maine (no offense Maine, I just like the western part of the lower 48 better).
These changes alone are hardly going to earn the Pine Tree State the reputation of "pro-business." Neighboring New Hampshire still has no income or sales tax. And last year Maine was ranked as having the third worst business climate for states by the Small Business Survival Committee. Still, no state has improved its economic attractiveness more than Maine has this year.
Political leaders of Arizona should be embarrassed.
Now for the money quote...
One question is how Democrats in Augusta were able to withstand the cries by interest groups of "tax cuts for the rich?" Mr. Baldacci's snappy reply: "Without employers, you don't have employees." He adds: "The best social services program is a job." Wise and timely advice for both Democrats and Republicans as the recession rolls on and budgets get squeezed.
Only a 2x4 upside the head hits harder.
I wish Maine much success and fortune. Obviously I hope that the federal government takes notice, as well as the state of Arizona and most importantly that the elected leaders of Kingman take note of the fundamentals. Face it folks, 'Shop Here!' doesn't pack the same sort of wallop.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Ord, Nebraska is trying...
A small rural town in the mid-west has hired someone for a tall order job, check this out found in the Atlantic...
TWO HOURS from the Interstate??!! Sounds like a tall order...
Feel free to read the rest of the blog, or even following along with the follow ups promised by the author.
The point here is that rather tiny Ord, a place I never heard of (as far as I know not featured in a song about a road cutting through the country), has taken a chance to bring more economic activity to the community. If you do read further on the blog linked you might like or not like the idea that the young man hired by Ord, Nebraska is undertaking to draw interest to a less than 3,000 person community.
Again, the point here is... at least they are trying and getting some covereage for the attempt.
On a recent cross country road trip, I stopped in Ord, Nebraska, where I interviewed Caleb T. Pollard, a 29 year old man charged with bringing young professionals, businesses, and even tourists to a rural town hours from the Interstate.
TWO HOURS from the Interstate??!! Sounds like a tall order...
The goal is for Ord, population 2,269, to avoid the fate of certain other Midwestern communities: a dearth of young people, a steady population decline, a hollowing of downtown, a flight of the professional and creative classes to the big city.
Feel free to read the rest of the blog, or even following along with the follow ups promised by the author.
The point here is that rather tiny Ord, a place I never heard of (as far as I know not featured in a song about a road cutting through the country), has taken a chance to bring more economic activity to the community. If you do read further on the blog linked you might like or not like the idea that the young man hired by Ord, Nebraska is undertaking to draw interest to a less than 3,000 person community.
Again, the point here is... at least they are trying and getting some covereage for the attempt.
Don't need lights while hiding in a shell...
My Dad used to raise his voice at me when I left the hall light on. No... not quite the Fathers Day tribute for my pops or anything, but it was one of the first things that hit me when I read this...
The other thing that hit me when I read the above is that this is what it probably looks like when the advice of hiding in a shell wins the day.
Might need to drum up an economic development post in the days ahead, where lights (and other services) aren't as threatened.
2 towns turning off street lights to save money
Associated Press - June 20, 2009 10:45 AM ET
RINDGE, N.H. (AP) - Officials in two New Hampshire towns are turning off some street lights to save money.
Pink ribbons on 16 utility poles around Rindge mark the lights that will go dark. In Jaffrey, selectmen last week approved shutting off 70 streetlights as a way to cut back on utility costs. The town also will convert to lower-energy bulbs in the lights that are staying on.
Officials in both towns tell The Keene Sentinel they expect to turn the lights off by early next month.
Jaffrey plans to review the decision in six months to make sure they haven't created any safety hazards.
The other thing that hit me when I read the above is that this is what it probably looks like when the advice of hiding in a shell wins the day.
Might need to drum up an economic development post in the days ahead, where lights (and other services) aren't as threatened.
Friday, June 19, 2009
I'm back...
... but I already want to go back. If you get the chance, ever... Whistler, British Columbia, Canada... is nice <--- (that is a severe understatement).
My wife is already posting photos on Facebook, meanwhile I look forward to catching up on email and the latest and greatest that always seems to happen when I leave town for a few days.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
May Sales Report (2009)
I have my mind on an upcoming vacation and am otherwise distracted, so this might be the shortest sales report so far. Numbers are not spectacular in any one direction or the other but it is time to review them... after the disclaimer of course...
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Listings and sales in units chart:
Maybe next month we will see these lines switch place... for a much needed change. If you read the Listings report earlier this month faint views of a more balanced market are appearing. More sales, along with limited new listings, could make this happen over the summer months. Stay tuned.
Average listings and sales averages chart:
Still not confident about this chart as these data lines need to be closer together... and I'm not expecting the red line to head north.
2006 through 2009 unit sales chart:
As you can see, the numbers so far in 2009 are ahead of the pace compared to the previous two years. This is in response to buyers being attracted to more attractive, and affordable, prices. Numbers would certainly look even better if there was more economic activity taking place in Kingman right now.
Sales in units are up 10% compared to May of 2008.
2006 through 2009 average price chart:
The trend still shows that prices are falling in 2009, but not at the same rate we saw last year. Falling towards a bottom, perhaps... as long as mortgage rates don't increase erasing the buying power of potential buyers.
The average price fell by a rate of 32.6% as compared to May of 2008.
2006 through 2009 median price chart:
Basically the same trend here, trending down but at a slower pace than in 2008.
The median price is off 34% from the same month in 2008.
Final sales prices in May of 2009 ranged from $19,900 to $379,900.
Average SFR statistics:
Bonus Charts:
As stated in an earlier post this month, the negotiated price reduction average is trending lower... meaning that listings are being reduced by sellers to a level closer to eventual market price.
Foreclosure Impact:
Again, basically 60% of the sales in May were on foreclosed bank owned property.
Wrap Up:
Plenty of separation between sold prices for bank owned properties and traditional sellers, about 34% difference. Also the average time to attract a buyer willing to enter negotiations is over two months, advantage bank owned. Still screams that price is everything in this market... the better the price... the quicker the sale.
You may draw your own conclusions when looking at this data... meanwhile I have to dust off my hiking shoes as I prepare for a flight to Vancouver, British Columbia and a nice scenic drive to Whistler.
I'll be at a local Canadian sports bar on Friday night catching game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals, hopefully surrounded by fans of the sport. I'm saying go Red Wings.
I'll also be celebrating my 8th wedding anniversary with my incredible wife while away. My gift to her is no complaining about hiking on the vacation... but I'm sure I'll try my best to get away for a fishing expedition or a round of golf at some point.
See you next month for the next installment of the latest Sales Report.
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Listings and sales in units chart:
Maybe next month we will see these lines switch place... for a much needed change. If you read the Listings report earlier this month faint views of a more balanced market are appearing. More sales, along with limited new listings, could make this happen over the summer months. Stay tuned.Average listings and sales averages chart:
Still not confident about this chart as these data lines need to be closer together... and I'm not expecting the red line to head north.2006 through 2009 unit sales chart:
As you can see, the numbers so far in 2009 are ahead of the pace compared to the previous two years. This is in response to buyers being attracted to more attractive, and affordable, prices. Numbers would certainly look even better if there was more economic activity taking place in Kingman right now.Sales in units are up 10% compared to May of 2008.
2006 through 2009 average price chart:
The trend still shows that prices are falling in 2009, but not at the same rate we saw last year. Falling towards a bottom, perhaps... as long as mortgage rates don't increase erasing the buying power of potential buyers.The average price fell by a rate of 32.6% as compared to May of 2008.
2006 through 2009 median price chart:
Basically the same trend here, trending down but at a slower pace than in 2008.The median price is off 34% from the same month in 2008.
Final sales prices in May of 2009 ranged from $19,900 to $379,900.
Average SFR statistics:
Data tables for all sales tracked in May 2009
| Item | May. '09 |
|---|---|
| Average Price per Unit Sold | $114,793 |
| Median Price per Unit Sold | $97,200 |
| Average Price per Square Foot | $75 |
| Item | May. '09 |
|---|---|
| Ave Living Space per Square Foot | 1,530 |
| Bedrooms | 3.02 |
| Bathrooms | 2.02 |
| Garage | 1.7 |
| Year Built | 1993 |
| Item | May. '09 |
|---|---|
| Days on Market to Contract | 95 |
| Days on Market to Close | 134 |
| Price Reductions on Market | $18,044 |
| Negotiated Price Concessions | $4,416 |
| Total Price Concessions | $22,460 |
| Total Percent Conceded | 16.36% |
Bonus Charts:
As stated in an earlier post this month, the negotiated price reduction average is trending lower... meaning that listings are being reduced by sellers to a level closer to eventual market price.Foreclosure Impact:
Again, basically 60% of the sales in May were on foreclosed bank owned property.
Traditional Seller vs. Bank Owned sales comparison for May 2009
| Item | Traditional Seller | Bank Owned |
|---|---|---|
| Total Units Sold in Month | 27 | 38 |
| Average Price per Unit Sold | $142,987 | $94,761 |
| Median Price per Unit Sold | $139,900 | $79,900 |
| Average Price per Square Foot | $93 | $62 |
| Item | Traditional Seller | Bank Owned |
|---|---|---|
| Ave Living Space per Square Foot | 1,536 | 1,526 |
| Bedrooms | 3.0 | 3.03 |
| Bathrooms | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Garage | 2.19 | 1.37 |
| Year Built | 1999 | 1989 |
| Item | Traditional Seller | Bank Owned |
|---|---|---|
| Days on Market to Contract | 131 | 70 |
| Days on Market to Close | 177 | 104 |
| Price Reductions on Market | $20,124 | $16,567 |
| Negotiated Price Concessions | $6,874 | $2,668 |
| Total Price Concessions | $26,998 | $19,235 |
| Total Percent Conceded | 15.9% | 16.9% |
Wrap Up:
Plenty of separation between sold prices for bank owned properties and traditional sellers, about 34% difference. Also the average time to attract a buyer willing to enter negotiations is over two months, advantage bank owned. Still screams that price is everything in this market... the better the price... the quicker the sale.
You may draw your own conclusions when looking at this data... meanwhile I have to dust off my hiking shoes as I prepare for a flight to Vancouver, British Columbia and a nice scenic drive to Whistler.
I'll be at a local Canadian sports bar on Friday night catching game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals, hopefully surrounded by fans of the sport. I'm saying go Red Wings.
I'll also be celebrating my 8th wedding anniversary with my incredible wife while away. My gift to her is no complaining about hiking on the vacation... but I'm sure I'll try my best to get away for a fishing expedition or a round of golf at some point.
See you next month for the next installment of the latest Sales Report.
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