While in Minnesota...

I just returned from a visit to cold country... the frozen tundra... the land of ice and snow.

While there I was able to experience a great sporting event. No, not an NFL game as I did on a previous trip. In fact it wasn't even a professional event. In other states THE thing to catch is a high school game. For instance, Indiana packs local gyms for high school basketball games (one of the best sports movies, Hoosiers, depicts this phenomena quite well), and in Texas communities Friday nights are for football... high school football (there is a movie and a TV show about all that).

In Minnesota the appeal is for high school hockey. Last Thursday I took in this experience as I watched Farmington High School take on New Prague. Let me just say that the kids are fantastic, and the crowd at the game gets into it. I never lived in an area that had high school hockey and never played at that level. I've been playing in adult leagues for many years and have been a fan of the game for as long as I can remember.

I was surprised by the speed and the intensity of the game. According the banners on the wall, Farmington has a great tradition of winning in both boys and girls hockey. The girls team is ranked number one going into the playoffs and I'm not sure how the boys team is doing (they lost on this night by a score of 7 to 3).

I stood along the end boards as I watched the game and was able to witness some clean checks right up against the glass. Those boys meant business. I could see the kids 'chirping' at each other after such hits and at times the ref's had to separate the combatants. Other excellent teamwork created scoring chances that were often met with timely saves by the goaltenders (the New Prague goalie had to be six foot two, he was a monster). Most of the goals I saw were scored on the power-play and the refs were handing out penalties at will.

It was a tough game for some of the people that showed up as well. During the game, an errant puck struck a fan in the face. The girl appeared to be of high school age and she needed medical attention and had to be escorted out of the place (a plastic baggie filled with snow was hurried over to those attending to the girl). I never saw the damage, but I did notice many other students busily using their cell phones to either text or send pictures to others shortly after the incident. The new media... if you will.

Some of the temperatures during my visit were extremely cold. Minus 17 was the coldest that I saw in the area I was at... with the wind chill... it made it feel like minus 39... whatever that means.

So in conditions like that I took in some TV viewing from the comforts of home. I like to watch CNBC types of programming at times and with the cold outside, there was time to catch up on the world of investing.

Of course the housing market was a big topic and I watched the National Association of REALTORS president Dick Gaylord give his spiel about how 'now is a great time to buy a house' type of thing. I have nothing against the guy and I am a loyal Member of NAR, but enough with that talking point.

Look, NAR is a large trade association and of course the association is always going to support the notion that it is a good time to buy property and homes... and of course the value of hiring a REALTOR to help with the transaction. Honestly though, to me, the effort is looking rather weak. There is obviously change in our industry and I believe our efforts should be looking internally at what we can do to best meet the needs of clients going forward. We should be having a real debate about the broker-agent business model and updating it to offer more specific needs to the changing needs of clients as the market corrects itself. There are other issues as well but I'm not going into them right now.

For now though, I guess Mr. Gaylord gets to take the punches with the NAR talking points from the talking heads on the cable shows.

Lastly, I finally took in the Mall of America in all its glory. Big place. Here are a couple of photos...





If my wife and I ever get the grandkids up to Minnesota, I'm sure the parents can get some serious shopping in while I take the kids on the rides... fair exchange.

January Sales Report (2008)

Well... 2008 is NOT off to a promising start. Maybe this year is still drowning its sorrows from last year and unfortunately those sorrows look like they've learned to swim.

I continue to hear from other Realtors that things are picking up again, yet the numbers are not showing any evidence of that in terms of closed sales. This last January is down 15 sales from last January and the new sales in units number is the lowest that I've ever reported since I started tracking this data back in 2004.

Plenty more to look at, but first... the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings and sales in units chart:

New listings are down from last January (2007) year some 38 units, but sales are also down like I said earlier 15 units. Inventory problems persist, surplus inventory that is.

Average listings and sales averages chart:

The average sales price holds steady from one year ago, in fact it increased a bit. The new listing average price has dropped and that is good news to some degree but in order to be very good news this trend must continue until there is clear balance throughout the market. Sellers still need to appeal to buyers with price and there is still plenty of gap to make up.

2005 through 2008 unit sales chart:

It is plain to see that 2008 is off to a bad start in terms of units sold.

2005 through 2008 average price chart:

As compared to one year ago, the average sales price is holding steady much like the average sales price did all throughout 2007 did with 2006... but something has to give... and it looks as if it will be price. At this price level the only thing we have seen is a steep decline in sales in units which has to tell you that prices are too high in this market.

2005 through 2008 median price chart:


Sales prices in January of 2008 ranges from a low of $35,000 to a high of $375,000.

Average SFR statistics:

The average home sold in January had 3.04 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2.32 car garage, included 1,620 square feet of living space, and was built in 1997. The average hold sold for an average of $120 per square foot of living space.

It took an average of 146 days of marketing to attract a buyer to come to an agreement and a total of 175 days from the first day of marketing to the close of escrow.

Sellers reduced price $20,768 to attract a buyer on average from the first day of marketing, and conceded another $13,356 to the buyer in the transaction. The total average price concession for the homes sold in January was $34,124.

Bonus Charts:


More of the same... buyers winning... sellers losing. This chart represents lost time in addition to lost money. Pricing to the actual market is so important right now if sellers want to sell in a timely fashion.

A small bump for price per square foot of living space for units sold in January.

Well, one sale report down for 2008 and eleven more to go. I'd love to say that we have nowhere to go but up from here, but I'm just not comfortable making that kind of prediction. Check back in next month to see the results.

Super Tuesday

I spent most of the day in the cold (for thin blooded Arizonans... today was cold) at polling places meeting all kinds of nice people.

Change seemed to be on everyones mind. Voters seem ready for a better direction both nationally and locally.

There was also a great letter to the editor in today's KDM. It is not on their website as of yet but if I see it I will post. The letter writer made great points. The gist... get out and vote!!

County Real Estate Dealings...

An interesting series of articles came out in the Miner this last week. I am linking to parts one and two today. I read part three in the old fashioned hard copy this morning and will update this post when it is available at the KDM website.

The gist... a local developer sued an out of town developer. The judge presiding over the case found in favor of the local developer. While the case was being heard... the judge appeared to be part of a consensus of County officials that recommended purchasing a multi-million dollar building from the local developer.

The details are better explained by the journalist, who by the way has done a fabulous job with her reporting. Please read all of the links below.

Part one: Controversy dogs county's Probation Department move

Part two: County manager raises questions about deal

Part three: Dunton questions handling of deal

Update and correction...

Earlier I posted in error. The Judge in the case did not find in favor of the plaintiff in the local developer vs. out of town developer. A jury did. I apologize to anyone that may have been offended by my remarks.

It is still my opinion that most people in the area would be a little leery as a defendant being sued by a plaintiff in a court with a presiding Judge that is part of a consensus of County officials that is backing a recommendation to pay the plaintiff millions of dollars for property while the trial is taking place.

The Big Game Today...

I'm not expecting much traffic at the site today with it being game day and all, but I might as well offer my prediction on today's events.

First as an Eagles fan... I hate both teams. I hate practically every other team in the league, but the Pat's beat the Birds a few years back in the Big Game and the Giants play my team at least twice a year every year... and they are punks... alright, they really aren't punks per se, but they made the Eagles look bad twice this year and I'm not over it yet.

My Dad is from Brooklyn and is a Giants fan... although he lives in Florida now and I have heard him refer to 'his' Tampa Bay Buccaneers when they beat the Eagles the year the Bucs won the Big Game. If the Giants win, I may get a call asking if I watched 'his' Giants win the game. To beat him to the punch, if the Giants look like they are going to win the game I will most likely call him and ask how 'his' Bucs are doing... however if the Pats are winning he will likely call me to say that 'his' Bucs are going to be good next year.

Across the street I have a neighbor that is from Boston. She travels back to that part of the country every now and then and always brings me a gift of some sort that is sports team related. Oh I have Tom Brady stuff, Boston Red Sox World Series tee-shirts, and Boston Bruins related material. All of it is great stuff, all of it is appreciated, and all of it reminds me that most of my teams from Philly stink. Still those tee-shirts come in handy over the summer when I am asked to mow the lawn in her back yard and take care of her tortoise... Mertle the Turtle. I mean I can't get caught in public with a Bruins shirt on. Philly fans have been known to eat their own if they see any disloyalty amongst the ranks.

As a fan, I truly am without a team for this game.

I will probably find myself rooting for the Giants today (I just feel dirty even typing that). If I was heading down to a sports book in Laughlin, I'd probably put a small amount of money on the money line for the Giants... maybe $20.

I hope the game comes down to the fourth quarter with some drama. After all the Pats are going for an undefeated season and that would be an incredible feat. Maybe that situation puts some pressure on the all world QB that dates all the hot chicks. I'd like to see some sort of proof the guy is human on the football field... even if he looks mortal for a few plays then puts his superhero cape back on and wins the game at the end (like he's done on other Super Sunday's).

So I'm predicting drama in the game.

I have the Giants winning 34 to 30 with Brady throwing a pick late in the fourth quarter in the red zone driving for the winning score.

Please note, I admit that I have no talent at picking correct results of games like this.

Hope you have a great day, be safe.

January listings report (2008)

Stark contrast between listing numbers and under contract numbers again this month. Hopefully more than 22% of the new listings will sell sometime this year.

Just the facts in this report no opinions...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings:

Today total listings available for single family residence equals 638 (down from 650 on January 1). The rate of new listings taken per day in January was 3.68.

There were 114 new listings taken in January (way back up as compared to 65 in December). The average asking price for the new listings is $224,010 (up again quite a bit from last months $201,624). The median asking price is $199,000 (also up significantly from $174,450 previously).

The average newly listed home has 3.05 bedrooms, 2.1 baths, a 1.96 car garage, with 1,647 square feet of living space and was built in 1993. The average asking price per square foot of living space is $136. Lastly, 28 of the new listings were actually re-listed either by the same or different broker.

Units under contract:

As of today there are 77 total units under contract (up slightly from the number of 70 last month).

30units entered into contracts in the month of January (up as compared to 25 the previous month). The average asking price for homes that received contracts was $164,668 (way down from $206,044 last month) and the median asking price for January was $149,000 (down from the previous months $170,450 figure).

The average home that went under contract in January has 3.03 bedrooms, 2 baths, a 1.9 car garage, with 1,522 square feet of living space, and was built in 1993. The average asking price per square foot of living space for listings that entered contract this month is $108. It was also priced $14,558 higher when it first was listed as compared to its current asking price (the average price reduction was $18,568 last month). The average marketing time to reach a contract was 92 days (from 184 last month).

Conclusions:

Total listings are down 120 from the total we saw in October 2007. That is fine, but there is a long way to go. The average marketing time for the homes that agreed to a contract in January was way down from previous months... but so were the average, median, and price per square foot prices. For any positive we saw in this report, there was an equal negative so no real market changes.

What about you??

So far in the campaign, all of the candidates (including me) have been talking about city funding. As in either how to create more money for the city or such things as tightening the proverbial belts to reduce spending. All of the conversation is interesting enough and you are free to make up your own minds on who would do the best thing along those lines.

Today I'm talking about the Kingman resident.

Have we really looked around recently?? Are we listening to what is happening??

I hear more about good people getting laid off from their jobs, I see places of business going under and closing, and none of it feels good.

I realize that Kingman and most of Arizona is beholden to housing, construction, development, and investment markets and right now the market stinks for all of the above.

Yet at this very same moment there are many interests that seem to be willing to infuse local and growing markets with real capital. Often we hear that it "takes money to make money" and well yes it does. So why is half of this community bent on interfering with the interests that want to bring their money here?? Who here locally is proposing large scale projects that have the ability to create opportunities for anyone motivated enough to capitalize??

I know of one major project that could qualify, but the locals involved have made it clear that they are willing to wait another five or so years in order to have the taxpayer of Arizona pay for most, if not all, of the project before any infusion of capital takes place.

Do you think that the folks getting laid off or the business owners under financial pressure can afford to wait around that much longer before things get better?? I say the answer is no. This local economy is deteriorating right now when it doesn't necessarily have to.

I hear people talk about the housing market locally all the time and many say that the home prices are way too high for what the typical Kingman resident makes income wise. This may very well be true and I'm not trying to argue on the side of higher home prices, that market needs to take care of itself. However, I have some data that shows the household median income for residents in Mohave County in the year 2000 was just a bit over $28,000. That number jumped up to $34,000 by the end of 2006. The main reason for this was the influx of money coming into the economy. Investors, developers, contractors... local or otherwise were contributing and the community was benefiting... the residents were benefiting.

In the last year though we saw in public efforts to defeat more infusion of capital in the area. Today we are seeing out of business signs and good people getting laid off. That is hardly a coincidence.

Do you want to have MORE opportunities next year?? The solution is simple really. It is time to reach out to those that have an interest to invest in our community. It is time to have an open conversation to see if there is a solution that could work towards yielding benefits to the Kingman resident. Can or will these interests with capital create jobs, create new business opportunity, and/or promote further infusion of capital from other sources that may have been on the fence about investing in Kingman?? If the answer is yes, we must make the right decision and move forward.

See it for yourself...

I wrote about the Saturday night Mayor's forum on Sunday. Yesterday we all read the article in the paper.

Now we can all see it for ourselves. Here is the video of Mayoral Candidate Bill Nugent. The video only includes Bill talking so you won't see the other candidates speak.

I'm sharing this here but I am not making endorsements, implied, expressed, or otherwise. The whole town seems to be buzzing about some of the comments from Saturday night so here is a chance for anyone who couldn't make it to the forum to see and hear what was said.

I found the video at youtube.com... enjoy.



To be fair, if the other Mayoral candidates have video that included their presentations I will post those videos here as well. Send me a link.

I love it!!

I don't know if reincarnation is real or not... but by the off chance that it is... this is what I want to be recreated as... a big ol' Great White.


There is a whole series of photo's like this linked here.

Article covering Mayoral Forum on Saturday night...

Plenty of good information included and I believe the article captures the event really well.

Here is the link.

Here are a couple of highlights...

From the applause, laughter and numerous times the crowd said "amen" after his statements, Nugent hit on some pertinent topics with his straight talk about cutting costs and eliminating development impact fees.

He said the problems in city hall started when a former reporter for the Miner "destroyed" the campaigns of Jim Baker and Monica Gates in 2006.

This marked the beginning of the negativity that has carried through the past two years, he said, and it's the reason the Council at the time didn't put off implementing impact fees, which have divided the community since their implementation.

And...

Naming Mayor Les Byram, Vice Mayor Dave French and Councilman Tom Carter, Nugent said he couldn't get the Kingman Crossing plans off their desks. In general, he said, they wouldn't make a move unless it was politically correct.

"Then you have the group going around, the Rancho Santa Fe group - Shorts, Schritter, Bruno - doing nothing but destroying anything that comes up in this community that doesn't fit their agenda," Nugent said.

The 60 Minutes Piece

Here is a link to an initial reaction to the report that played tonight.

Mayors race is getting heated up...

I attended the forum last night for the hopefuls for Kingman's next Mayor, hosted by the Praise Chapel.

First off, great event hosted by Pastor Pennington. Beautiful setting that accommodated the largest audience to date in the current election cycle. I was really grateful for the impeccable audio system that allowed me to actually hear 100% of the content that was offered by the candidates. The format was also top notch, with only three candidates up on stage I thought that each had a chance to fully articulate on the issues and questions that were offered.

Each candidate was graceful towards each other and the tone of this election so far has had that feel even among candidates for Council. This really is an issues election, it's business... not personal.

However, one candidate last night did make some very provocative statements... and drew a big round of applause when he was finished. The reactions to what was said will no doubt be interesting in the coming days. Clearly, a line was drawn in the sand.

Unfortunately, I do not have a transcript or access to another means of recording of the event so I will not attempt to quote or even paraphrase what was said by any particular candidate last night. I will link to any article that may appear that might have those statements when they are available.

I will say that I do agree that much of what was said was needed to be said... finally.

Housing report on front page...

The KDM ran an article about the housing market in today's edition.

See it here.

See more here.

For Mr. Royster (the KDM writer), I'm truly sorry that there isn't a better source of this kind of local information about the market... but... I'm glad I could help at least offer you the data I share.

By the way, thanks, you did a fine job with the article.

More Kingman Crossing...

Excerpt taken from a memo sent to the Mayor, Council, City Manager, and Candidates for city office...

As part of the Design Concept Report (DCR) process, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) must approve a change of access report for I-40 that shows that the interchange will not have a negative impact on the Interstate. This generally requires that a new traffic interchange connect to the local arterial street network on both sides of the freeway.

With the failure of the city property ballot issues, and the lack of a plan for the development of the state section, FHWA has preliminarily indicated that an interim solution of a "one-sided" traffic interchange could be acceptable. This alternative would require that the traffic interchange connect to Santa Rosa Blvd, north of the freeway immediately, and ultimately further north to Airway Avenue. On the south side of the freeway no arterial connection would immediately be provided. Ultimately, a connection would have to be provided to Louise Avenue. This connection would happen when the city property and/or state section develop. This scenario would require a second change of access report before the southern connection could be opened to traffic. A final determination from FHWA will not happen until they sign off on the DCR and change of access report showing the interim one-sided interchange. With the current schedule, that should be in April/May of 2008.

So I ask you... how does an interchange that only takes traffic to the north side of the Interstate change the discussion??

Let's see some discussion.

By the way... The developers on the north side will be at the special meeting or work shop before tonights City Council meeting. The fun begins at 4:30pm.

Updates...

If you remember, last month at the Kingman Republican Mens Club meeting I was invited to speak before the members. There were three other candidates that did also. I attended yesterday's meeting because I was interested to hear another three Council candidates speak on the issues.

When it came time for questions all of the Council candidates were called up to take part. It wasn't something that I expected but was glad for the opportunity. I even think that I heard enough from another candidate that would likely earn my vote.

I spent the weekend catching up on some household chores, particularly dealing with thorny rose bushes. The weather was just nice enough and all work was completed in time on Sunday to watch the NFL football action. As an Eagles fan, I hate both teams that will play in the Superbowl for different reasons. Right now for some reason, I feel that the Giants are going to pull that game out... and it pains me to say it.

I've been working on a different website for the campaign and should be able to link to it by the end of the week.

Don't forget that I have a non scientific survey on the sidebar that anyone can participate in. I'm curious about who the readers here are thinking of supporting for Mayor. Please feel free to take part.

Also in just a little while I will be interviewed at the Kingman Daily Miner in front of their editorial board. I'm interested to see who the KDM readers are that were chosen to sit in and participate.

See you in awhile...

Update:

I was merely a week early for the interview at the KDM. Stupid computer calendar program that I entered the wrong information in. Oh well, at least I wasn't a week late.

Interesting look at construction at Hoover Dam

I just saw this video at YouTube on the Hoover Dam Bypass project and wanted to share (hat tip to Justin Chambers for finding this).

A few notes about the campaign...

Yesterday I did my first sit down interview for the local TV cable channel 77. I have satellite TV service so I won't be able to watch the show on the tube myself, but hopefully you will have a chance. Look for it in the next week or two. I will be attaining a copy of the interview and I will attempt to put it up on youtube and then link it here so you can all see the big dufus that I probably am (... yeah, I'm being a little self critical here).

The show is interview style and runs for a half-hour. We did two 12 minute segments, or thereabouts, and I was really surprised how fast each segment went along.

Also, last night another candidate forum was held by the CIVIC organization and the event was held at the high school auditorium. All of the candidates were up on a stage with an orchestra pit off the stage area. There was a safety net in that gap area. I realized the opportunity for embarrassment and noticed that one of my shoes became untied... but managed to avoid any pratfall during the forum.

It was great to see some new faces last night, but I was a little disappointed that there wasn't a better turn out when, after all, it was held in a large comfortable room and there was no $10 charge to get in the door.

Even though I was seated basically right behind the podium where all the candidates spoke from, into a microphone, I was not able to hear most of what the other candidates were speaking on (I gotta break down and get those hearing aids). At times it was difficult for me to gauge how the audience was reacting to what the other candidates were saying. I could see some audience members straining to hear some of the candidates.

After answering one question about the vision I have for Kingman in the year 2015, I was asked a follow up question about the estimated population of Kingman by then and I answered 50,000... and I really meant to say 150,000. Sometimes the mouth and the brain are coy with each other, it is not nearly as bad as it used to be though.

The questions were different and creative. I especially liked the one I just alluded to... how do we see the situation in Kingman eight or so years down the road. I think about the future all the time and I envision opportunity to grow and expand my own business in that time frame and I want nothing more than to do that right here in Kingman. Of course with only two minutes to answer, up on a stage, in front of a diversely interested audience... I found that I couldn't articulate everything I wanted to. That gives me an idea for a blog post though, one where I will expand on my vision. Stay tuned.

I know that a frequent commenter, Ken, had already posted some feedback on the post from yesterday... but I wouldn't mind seeing some more thoughts from anyone else that was there. How'd I do?? How did the other candidates do?? Who is making the most sense?? That kind of thing. So if you have a moment, please leave a comment or two.

The last bit of information about my campaign is that I filed my paperwork for my committee, which means I can raise campaign funds to help fund the campaign. If you are interested in perhaps making a donation, please email me at toddtarson@remax.net. I can accept up to $390 from an individual but would be honored to accept whatever you could contribute.

I'll be putting up campaign signs and running ads for my candidacy with that money. Maybe even a mailer or two. If you want to help me spread the word please consider making a contribution. We are all in this together to move Kingman forward.

2007 Listing and Sales Activity Wrap-Up...

"Full disclosure."

You might hear that terminology from time to time. For me, that term goes nicely with the 2007 year end listing and sales report that I'm about to share.

For the last year and a half... I have been reading, hearing, and seeing people talk about the real estate market and of Realtors... most of what I'm privy to is not complimentary. Depending on who you believe, Realtors were the cause of the the deflating housing market. Realtors got the whole country into 'this' mess. Realtors lie and are willing to say anything, by any means necessary, to ensure that when a home sells -- a 6% commission of the sale flows into the greedy pockets of agents and brokers everywhere. Bottom line, Realtors will say anything to paint a rosy picture of what is happening in the market... well... that is what the critics offer.

Hmm... I'm willing to bet that this year end report flies in the face of the critics. I am a Realtor and I have been offering data on a consistent basis... raw data... no frills data... it is what it is. Most of it has not been pretty... all of it has been honest... and yes I'd love to sell a few more units a year to line my greedy pockets with funds from negotiated agreements I have with my clients.

But I see the data and know what I'm in for as a professional in this industry and when you see the following charts... you should be able to come to the same kind of conclusion that I have.

But first... the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Where oh, where should I begin?? Listings or sales?? Alright... listings it is...

2007 Listing Activity Report:

In total, there were 1,563 listings that hit the market as reported by WARDEX in my research area. Folks, when I was telling you all year long that sellers were outnumbering buyers by a wide margin I had no idea how this chart would look like when all was said and done for 2007. As you can see of the 1,563 listings taken last year, only 22% (or 340 units) successfully attracted a buyer and transferred ownership.

If you want to equate that to baseball terms... batting .220 in the major leagues usually means sitting on the bench or getting shipped back to the minor leagues. Our market certainly was not a rising star in 2007... it was merely a bench player or minor leaguer at best.

35% of the listings taken last year are still on the market. 38% of the sellers that tried their hand in the real estate sales market either quit (withdrawn listings) or let the listing period lapse (expired listings) and saw no positive results. If you factor in the 2% of sellers that have at least 'temporarily' pulled their listing from the active market you will see a total of 40% of the sellers probably learned that the competition was too stiff last year.

If we removed the withdrawn, expired, and temporarily off the market listings from the data, then we would see that 41% of the listings taken in 2007 have achieved success. Folks those are all-star numbers if we are using a baseball analogy. In fact Hall of Fame numbers. This was not reality though... just wishful thinking.

Quite simply the listing market was extremely bloated in 2007. Lot's of choices for buyers, plenty of opportunity to simply wait for the best deal... and all the while sellers were slow to react... well at least 40% of them were.

For the hopeful sellers in 2008, you should definitely get an in depth market report before you put your home on the market. You must understand the competition that you will face and be prepared to price your home to the current market. Gone are the days when your home will sell for more than your neighbors did 6 months ago... even though your home is much nicer and has all the upgrades, bells, and whistles. Gone are those days until some balance comes back to the market. Sellers can affect the balance in the market and it is all in the numbers.

2007 Sales Activity Report:




See a trend in the charts above?? Sales in units were off a whopping 37% from the previous year. The total dollar volume of business was off even more... down 40% (est.).

That is nothing as compared to how far the market has fallen compared to 2005 (59% in units sold and 52% in dollar volume). We have been told that 2005 was the best year ever for real estate sales and when you have the all time best in anything, often what follows a command performance is a lack luster effort. I'm sure there is some 'spin' out there that will say that 2007 was in the top ten performing years of all time... but home sellers and real estate professionals won't be impressed.

So how did the average sales stack up against previous years?? I'm glad you asked...


What?? Down only 1.9%?? If you were one of the lucky sellers this last year you probably made it out without too many scratches or other types of flesh wounds... especially if you bought the home originally before 2006.

Now I'm not too familiar with a failing market, but I'm guessing this kind of data above lags the data in the other two charts by a year or so. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm just basing that on how this data lagged when the market was going the other direction.

How far will prices drop?? Where will it stop?? Dudes and dudette's... I do not have those kinds of mental powers to make that kind of determination. There is a new movie coming out (or is out... we don't have a movie theater in Kingman at the moment) called 'There Will Be Blood" and while the movie looks good (I'm sure I'll see it when it comes out on dvd), the title may be a little harsh for the upcoming market but many may think it will feel like that.

If you are thinking of selling in 2008, make sure you get all the data you can get your hands on before placing a sign in the front yard. Marketing your home in a quick fashion should be the goal and appealing to buyers, for the time being, will mean a price tag that screams 'GREAT DEAL' today... but keep in mind that it may not scream that in 30 to 60 days.

There will be many tough choices to make in 2008... the easiest of the toughest choices may be to not sell your home. I hope and pray that you don't find yourself in a situation where this option isn't available.

Looking back, it appears we are at least 24 months into this 'slide' down in the market. If some sense of balance can be achieved this year between buyers and sellers then I believe we would be making progress towards recovery.

Of course there are other factors at play here, but I'm only focusing on the local market. The sub-prime meltdown, the banking and credit fiasco, and the government intervention are things that none of us have control of. Sorting that stuff out is for someone else.

If we see a better sense of balance between the number of buyers and sellers in 2008, then this report next year will be plenty easier to write. Be sure to check back throughout the year for the monthly updates. Good luck and fortune to all.

Don't forget tonight...

There is another public forum event for candidates running for city offices tonight at the Kingman High School north campus on Bank St. The event begins at 6:30pm, there are plenty of seats at this facility and it would be great to see at least half the place filled.

Come out and hear the candidates.

Come out and support me.

More about the event here.

General Plan and local politics...

As I said before... I intend to use this blog to help communicate to voters where I stand on the issues... AND how I view the issues differently than perhaps some or all of the candidates for city council. In this post I will be disagreeing with another candidate on an issue he spoke about at the Mohave Republican Forum last Tuesday night.

Before I begin... I know that I sometimes write these posts with a flair of sarcasm, and to some degree, the intention of humor. I realize that humor is judged by the reader individually and not by the writer. So when I do these kinds of posts... perhaps disagreeing with a fellow candidate... I will do my very best not to include the usual sarcasm and will maintain a healthy level of respect towards the candidates.

In fact, I am feeling a sort of kinship with the other candidates at this time. I think that it is wonderful that the 13 of us (originally) that qualified for the ballot stepped up at this time to, hopefully, rally the community and ultimately move Kingman in a positive direction. Kingman voters will have to make tough choices on March 11th.

I am going to copy and paste some quotes from this article that covered the Forum event on Tuesday night. The quotes are attributed to Harley Pettit and I'm sure most of you know that he is a founding member of RAID but apparently had to resign from that group once he announced his intention to seek office. You also know that I have disagreed with RAID on numerous occasions on numerous issues for the last year or so. I am not singling out Mr. Pettit because of his affiliation with RAID though, I'm doing this because I disagree with him on a very important issue... an issue that I think has become very blurred in this community.

From the article...

Former Residents Against Irresponsible Development member Harley Pettit's opinions have been in the community for months now: he prefers Rattlesnake Wash. For one, residents voted on it in the General Plan. Secondly, Kingman Crossing, he believes, would take sales tax revenues away from existing businesses in Kingman.

"I think the Nov. 6 ballot spoke loud and clear on the Kingman Crossing being funded by the city," he said, referring to the 60 percent majority of voters opposing two Crossing measures.

"Rattlesnake Wash has a plan and a purpose, and he have maps on that," he said.

Settle in and grab your favorite drink (one with caffeine in it, cause this may take awhile)...

Preferring Rattlesnake Wash is fine with me (I prefer both proposed interchanges), but I don't think the rationale he delivered works for the community.

Mr. Pettit alludes to the General Plan and says that voters of Kingman voted for approving the plan, in part, because it had the Rattlesnake Wash interchange on the map... and obviously not the Kingman Crossing. The General Plan is a long document with many things included, it is way more than a land use designation map. I'll be responding to the General Plan stuff a bit later (because of length) and for now will respond to the other comments first.

Sales tax migration:

The other point Mr. Pettit brings up above is how sales tax dollars could be diverted away from other existing commercial businesses in Kingman, assuming in the event that Kingman enters into a development/reimbursement agreement with a developer that would front the cost of infrastructure improvements and later be reimbursed over time. I could very well agree that this could be an issue... only if the population of this area was to remain static for many years. Will our population remain static?? Here in the southwestern part of the United States?? In one of the fastest growing states in the country?? In one of the fastest growing county's in the nation?? Folks... before you answer...

The issue that he bring up stems from what I perceive to be a misinterpretation of how development and public/private reimbursement agreements work in the state of Arizona. It is impossible to make the kind of determination that Mr. Pettit has until a private entity and a municipality agree to have a feasibility study done to determine the affects a reimbursement agreement will have on the community. Until that study is ordered, completed, and studied (by the public)... none of us can really make a clear determination about whether or not a reimbursement agreement would be a worthy path to take to improve infrastructure needs within our community.

Nobody should assume anything at this point. The 'investment' into a feasibility study is rather low (much less than what Kingman gave to the Chrysler corporation to 'incentivize' them to move their testing operations to the Yucca area), especially as compared to what could be a significant increase over time to the collection of sales tax dollars in Kingman... as Kingman grows. And just what if the feasibility study shows no increase in tax dollars or harm to the revenues for the reasons Mr. Pettit stated?? That is easy... don't enter into a development/reimbursement agreement.

November 6 local issues election:

Did the voters of Kingman have a chance to cast their vote about development/reimbursement agreements, or the proposed interchange itself, or the development on the north side of Kingman Crossing last November the 6th?? The answer simply is no.

Proposition 301 was the only issue that I would consider to be closely related to the remarks that Mr. Pettit offered. Prop 301 only dealt with the land use designation on the Kingman resident owned property on the south side of the Interstate at Kingman Crossing. But yes, 60% of the voters voted to hold the current land use designation in place and bypassed a chance to increase the value of our own property. Something that I bet all those voters would not have voted to do if they individually owned those 168 acres of prime real estate.

I remember well the organized effort by RAID to defeat the proposition on the ballot. I know that members of that organization really believed in what they were doing... and I don't hold anything against them... I still simply disagree with their lack of intention to do something positive with the very best land asset that Kingman will likely ever have.

Rattlesnake Wash:

The proposed interchange at Rattlesnake Wash most assuredly has a plan and a purpose, as Mr. Pettit alludes to in the above quote. And yes, there are maps that have the proposed interchange on them.

What many people may not know is that developers and land owners on the south side of the Interstate near Rattlesnake Wash and the city entered into one of those development agreements some time ago. While that agreement does NOT have a reimbursement element included back to the developers, it certainly is the kind of agreement that benefits the City of Kingman AND those landowners and developers. I'll offer more details about this existing development agreement in a future blog post, but yes Mr. Pettit is right... there is a strong purpose for the Rattlesnake Wash interchange project... including (but not limited to) profiting many millions of dollars for private interests due in large part to public funding.

The General Plan stuff:

Let's jump in the 'way back' machine and head back in time to the date of May 18th, 2004. Do you remember what you were doing that day?? Well while you were doing whatever it was you were doing, there were 2,262 of us voters here in Kingman that voted to approve the General Plan. That number represented just short of 75% of the voters that bothered to show up to cast their vote on what has become such a huge and important document that has become just short of being worshiped by some people here in the community.

On that particular election day voters were asked to decide on a Mayor, one City Council seat, the Home Rule Option, and the aforementioned General Plan. There were 13,134 registered and eligible voters that day and; 3,970 voters cast a vote for their choice for Mayor, 3,761 votes were cast to decide who would sit on the City Council, 3,724 folks chimed in on the Home Rule Option, and the General Plan only appealed to 3,538. See the results for yourselves here.

You may draw your own conclusions, but when I see that 1 out of every 10 voters that decided who would be the Mayor -- but didn't bother to vote either way on approving the General Plan or not -- I'm guessing the issue wasn't clear or even important to voters one way or another.

To give you some idea, here is a link to the city website that has the entire General Plan... that the voters voted on. Now if you decide to wade through that long document -- your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to find exactly where the voters of Kingman approved the Rattlesnake Wash interchange project... both phase 1 and phase 2.

I searched the Kingman Daily Miner's website for past articles about the general plan before that election and came up with NOTHING, so I don't know (and can't remember) the community discussion about this very important (as it seems now) subject. The only thing I vaguely remember about deciding to vote to approve the General Plan or not was the fact that according to state of Arizona statutes... municipalities had to HAVE one. I certainly do not remember anyone selling me on the idea that approving the General Plan equated to a huge infrastructure project moving forward. If the interchange was a selling point I know that I would have remembered it since I've been saying since I moved here in 2000 that I didn't think there were enough interchanges in Kingman along Interstate 40.

If you decide to peruse the General Plan that I linked to above, be sure the read chapter 9 of that document. It is the cost of development element that talks about the various ways that the City of Kingman should consider, going forward, as ways to pay for improvement projects. See the following...

The Cost of Development Element includes:

A.) A component that identifies various mechanisms that can be used to fund additional public services necessary to serve new development, including, but not limited to: bonding, special taxing districts, development fees, in lieu fees, facility construction, dedications, and service privatization.

B.) A component that identifies policies to ensure that any mechanisms adopted by the City of Kingman under this element result in a beneficial use to the development and bear a reasonable relationship to the burden imposed on the City to provide the additional public services.

Easy enough right?? I'll share a bit more from item number 9-2 from this chapter named Funding Mechanisms of the General Plan...

In order to achieve Kingman's goal of meeting the needs of our growing community, the City must continue to expand public infrastructure and facilitate services. It is important that the City establish specific policies, plans and strategies that can be implemented with community support to address financial needs and achieve stated community goals.

With continued growth, Kingman has made efforts to fund increases in the number of police and fire personnel, and other employees, services and facilities. City facilities and services are funded through the general fund and some special grants. The general fund is funded through sales tax revenues, which are the largest source of revenue, and other population-based revenues from the State or through payment for City services. Sales tax revenue tends to be unpredictable due to fluctuating economic conditions such as employment rates, stock market changes, and tourism levels.

Among the list of funding mechanisms mentioned in 9-2.1 of the General Plan is the following...

Development Agreements

Development agreements are permitted under A.R.S. 9-500.5 for municipalities. Development agreements permit contractual arrangements between the City and property owner(s) regulating the permitted uses, density, maximum height, and other aspects of the land subject to the agreement. Advantages of development agreements are that they are voluntary and, therefore, mutually agreeable to all parties involved in the negotiations. Also, they can enable the City to attain planning goals at minimal or without costs.

Yep... Kingman voters voted on this. Now let's take a look at the goals, objectives, and policies from 9-4 of this chapter of the General Plan...

GOAL: To apportion the costs of development by ensuring that development pays its "fair share" of the costs of additional public service facilities, and needs generated by new development.

Objective 1.0:

Ensure that City services, facilities, equipment and infrastructure properly serve the community in a manner that enhances quality of life, optimizes existing facilities, and provides for future needs.

Policies:

1.8 Evaluate public/private partnerships, and development agreements.

To save space I did not include all the listed policies in this subsection of the General Plan. I do find it interesting that Mr. Pettit uses the General Plan to make his point about Rattlesnake Wash, doesn't seem to want to abide by the General Plan when it comes to evaluating public/private partnerships as stated as a policy.

Mr. Pettit also mentioned something about maps earlier... stating in the past that the Rattlesnake Wash interchange was included on the land use map for the General Plan. Click on the land use map at the link I offered earlier... once you have opened that map please notice that the Kingman Crossing interchange is now that map... and also notice that the map itself has be revised in 2005, 2006, and 2007 (and likely again in 2008... probably due to change and growth).

I don't think the General Plan should be used politically the way we've seen it used in that manner over the last year or so. Especially since the whole concept of the plan is mandated by the state of Arizona first and foremost. The other bit of importance is that this plan is primarily used as a guideline and not something set in stone... the plan can be altered based on change and need.

I see the need for change in Kingman because of the growth we have experienced. The flow of growth is moving nicely east along the Interstate.

With the utmost respect towards a fellow candidate for the office of City Council, I am compelled to disagree with him for the reasons I have included in this blog post. I certainly wouldn't mind discussing these issues further with anyone who wanted to, whether you agree or disagree. Candidates for office are invited to chime in as well if they choose.