Here is one observation to get us started today, this first day of June of 2009 (Happy Birthday goes out to my Dad and my now one year old granddaughter Delaney). Since June of 2006 I have been recording the total amount of active listings that appear on the first day of the month. Over those now 37 months the average tally of active listings is 645. Over that same period of time the average number of unit sales per month comes in right around 49 units. Meaning that the absorption rate of inventory is a little over 13 months worth. Not pleasant numbers for sellers to say the least.
Well on this June 1 of 2009 the total number of active listings comes in at 423, marking the lowest such figure that I have collected. That figure is remarkable not only compared to the 37 month average but also compared to the number posted on March 1 of 2009. The total number of active listings has shed 87 units since March 1.
I don't typically run the monthly final units sold figures for another 10 days or so, but quickly looking at it today and I see that 60 units have closed in May... making the absorption rate a little over 7 months worth of inventory. That would be the closest thing to a balanced market we've seen in many years.
However... there is always a however... the reduction of inventory probably has NOT materialized due to increased sales alone. I believe the bigger factor making the impact is sellers giving up in this market. I don't have data to back that up, the data I do have (sales vs. new active listings) though shows that in most of those months more than 50% more listings hit the market than there were successful closings.
But whether due to increased sales or simply attrition... the market appears to be finding a path to balance and I'm guessing, based on the data alone, a bottom.
Let's see what else this report has in store for us... so to the disclaimer we go!!
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Data tables for all new listings tracked in the month of May 2009
| Item | Total Units | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Total Listings On Market | 423 | 451 |
| Total Listings Listed as Foreclosed | 48 | 62 |
| Item | Month of May | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| New Listings Total | 78 | 112 |
| New Listings Listed as Foreclosed | 24 | 41 |
| Average Asking Price Per Unit | $163,294 | $161,142 |
| Median Asking Price | $120,000 | $129,900 |
| Average Asking Price Per Square Foot | $102 | $97 |
| Units Re-Listed | 12 | 21 |
| Units Already Under Contract | 11 | 31 |
| Item | Month of May | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Living Area Square Footage | 1,603 | 1,663 |
| Bedrooms | 3.0 | 3.05 |
| Bathrooms | 2.03 | 2.04 |
| Garage | 2.0 | 1.97 |
| Year Built | 1994 | 1991 |
| Item | Lowest | Highest |
| Listings | $34,900 | $430,000 |
First thing that pops out to me is that a little over one in ten active listings on the market is listed as a foreclosed listing. Foreclosures are where the action is at based on sales and even pending contracts (we'll get to those in a moment). So no surprises about the talk going around about multiple offers being made to those foreclosed listings. I'm guessing there is a little over one months worth of available inventory of foreclosed listings.
The other hoped for surprise was the new listing unit figure for May dropped to the lowest recorded figure that I've been collecting for over the last three years. Only 2.5 listings were taken a day in May. I really hope this is the beginning of a trend that lasts until a true market bottom is recognized by most... however I have my doubts that new listings stay in this range.
Lastly for the listings... the average asking price is still too high for the current market. The reported price per square foot above shows sellers are asking for $102 dollars a square foot. The banks that put new listings on the market in May did so for $71 dollars a square foot. It is why there is only a little over a months worth of foreclosed inventory. Well we'll see if the sellers can hold the line... if they actually are sellers.
Data tables for all new Units under contract tracked in the month of May 2009
| Item | Total Units | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Total Units Under Contract | 144 | 150 |
| Total Contracts Listed as Foreclosed | 63 | 67 |
| Item | Month of May | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| New Contracts Total | 70 | 85 |
| New Contracts Listed as Foreclosed | 36 | 41 |
| Average Marketing Price Per Unit | $123,585 | $121,881 |
| Median Marketing Price | $114,900 | $99,233 |
| Average Marketing Price Per Square Foot | $80 | $79 |
| Days on Market to Acquire a Contract | 137 | 83 |
| Average Marketing Price Reduction | $18,570 | $16,538 |
| Item | Month of May | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Living Area Square Footage | 1,548 | 1,522 |
| Bedrooms | 2.9 | 3.01 |
| Bathrooms | 2 | 2 |
| Garage | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Year Built | 1996 | 1994 |
| Item | Lowest | Highest |
| Listings | $39,900 | $355,000 |
New contracts in May slipped a bit as compared to the previous two months but still maintain a better than terrible rate that was seen over the last couple of years. Even the foreclosed units numbers slipped a bit... but that might simply be because there are now less foreclosure listings available on the market.
Also the number of days on market to attract a buyer shot up nearly two months time and the average price reduction also rose compared to prior months. This clearly tells me that the buyers still have as much negotiating power they need to get the deal they are looking for. While buyers might feel some pressure if they are shopping for a foreclosure, they probably don't feel the same pressure for the bulk of the human seller owned listings. Not at the asking prices being offered.
Time now for some year over year action...
Year over year data listings/pending contracts
| Item | UP/DOWN | unit/dollar amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Listings | DOWN | 173 | (29%) |
| New Listings in May | DOWN | 40 | (34%) |
| Average Price per New Listing | DOWN | $49,814 | (23%) |
| Median List Price | DOWN | $69,000 | (37%) |
| Item | UP/DOWN | unit/dollar amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Pending Contracts | UP | 57 | 66% |
| New Contracts for May | UP | 17 | 32% |
| Average Marketing Price per Unit | DOWN | $52,997 | (30%) |
| Median Marketing Price | DOWN | $35,000 | (23%) |
More of the same since I started reporting these year over year figures in table format on this blog. So far I haven't had to change the up/down categories in any month with the sole exception being more new listings in Feb. 2009 than in Feb. 2008. As long as the listing unit numbers continue to go down and the pending unit numbers continue up compared to the previous years, the end of this rather poor market may be within reach.
It is all based on price though.
Don't forget that I'm helping folks avoid foreclosure, as much as it might be possible in a given circumstance. I'm working with an outfit that can offer solutions such as loan modification and/or negotiating services with lenders for possible short sale situations. Contact me for more information. Please, lets try to limit your exposure to this current market if you are facing a distressful financial times. It is easy to look at the data and say that this is a buyers market... no arguments here... but it is also an agents market. What I mean is at times like these for sellers an experienced agent with helpful resources can help make the best of a miserable situation.
See you sometime next week for the May sales report (and all the pretty charts). Happy selling. Happy hunting.
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