Saturday, April 11, 2009

March Sales Report (2009)

Well it is that time again and I'm a couple of days late getting this report done and published (I have been 'on the road again'). The numbers, again last month, are very interesting to say the least. Some main numbers -- like the total number of sales -- look very good but that number alone does not tell the entire story. The spread between the traditional sellers and foreclosure sales is widening and that is not good for traditional sellers (humans vs. non human banks).

So lets get to those funky charts and telling tables... after the disclaimer of course...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings and sales in units chart:

Hoo-ray!! the units sold number is dramatically up compared to the last two years (as we'll see later)... but darn it if we can't seem to make substantial gains on the gap between new listings and units sold. This is still a big problem that only time is going to cure and until then my bet is that we will still see declining values (at worst) or flat-lined values (at best).

Average listings and sales averages chart:

This is what I mean by flat-lined values, look back over the last four months and three of them show an average sale figure beginning with $125k. Maybe this is a bottom, maybe not. The good news is that new listing average figures are moving closer to the average sale figure. Hopeful sellers seem to be responding to the market conditions. Closing this gap is good, but closing the gap in the first chart above would be better.

Also just want to throw this in there... the foreclosure sales and listings are having a big impact as we will see a bit later.

2006 through 2009 unit sales chart:

I'll be brutally honest with everyone here on this chart... do you know who is breathing the biggest sign of some relief looking at this data?? Realtors, that's who. Why?? Because sales in units are up and to this point killing the numbers from the last two years. Two tough years for many in this industry. The 'sucky' thing is though... Realtors really only have the banks (non-humans) to thank for the increased production.

But others might see the benefit of the increased number of sales as it does mean that homes are selling in greater numbers in the Kingman area, buyers are buying (which means lenders are lending and so on and so forth).

Compared to the previous year, unit sales are up 63%.

2006 through 2009 average price chart:

Last month I said I wasn't ready to call a 'bottom' for prices... and I'm still not but it is nice to see prices hold basically for the last four months. This little bounce back means I won't have to adjust the scale on this chart just yet (and I hope I don't have to -- but only the market knows for sure).

Compared to last year the average price dropped 18.5%.

2006 through 2009 median price chart:

The median sales price is off from last year ONLY 20% from last year... yep, I said ONLY. I'm expecting something more next month.

The price range of all sales in March 2009 was from $35,000 - $305,000

Average SFR statistics:

Data tables for all sales tracked in March 2009

Price Data
ItemMar. '09
Average Price per Unit Sold $125,878
Median Price per Unit Sold $110,000
Average Price per Square Foot $79

House Data
Item Mar. '09
Ave Living Space per Square Foot 1,599
Year Built 1996

Marketing Data
ItemMar. '09
Days on Market to Contract 92
Days on Market to Close 128
Price Reductions on Market $13,333
Negotiated Price Concessions $6,326
Total Price Concessions $19,659
Total Percent Conceded

Bonus Charts:

Eh... buyers may not have done as well last month... but they are still doing pretty well in negotiations.

Foreclosure Impact:

Here we are going to see some alarming spreads as bank owned foreclosures dominated the sales market with 60% of the sales in March. March Madness alright.

Traditional Seller vs. Bank Owned sales comparison for March 2009

Price Data
ItemTraditional Seller
Bank Owned
Total Units Sold in Month
Average Price per Unit Sold $163,692$100,328
Median Price per Unit Sold $134,950$92,450
Average Price per Square Foot $99$64

House Data
Item Traditional SellerBank Owned
Ave Living Space per Square Foot 1,6571,559
Year Built 20001993

Marketing Data
ItemTraditional Seller Bank Owned
Days on Market to Contract 12768
Days on Market to Close 163104
Price Reductions on Market $15,124$10,446
Negotiated Price Concessions $9,133$6,106
Total Price Concessions $24,257$16,552
Total Percent Conceded13%

Traditional sellers held their own in terms of value as compared to the banks. This was the largest 'premium' gap between traditional sellers and bank owned foreclosures so far since I started gathering and comparing this sort of data. Probably an anomaly, but it should be a concern to anyone concerned about the value of their property -- even if there is no intent on selling property. If the gap between sales in units continues to widen (in March it was a 60-40 split between bank owned vs. traditional sellers), values will continue to fall.

Banks are aggressively pushing new listing prices further down in what appears to be some sort of free for all competition between bank vs. bank. Take another look at the marketing data table above... whatever the banks are doing it is working. Banks are getting contracts in half the time that traditional sellers are... and only conceding about the same percentage of price as traditional sellers.

For the sales that closed in March traditional sellers need on average two more months of marketing time... two more mortgage payments, two more months of utility costs, two more months of wondering if their property would sell... and many, many more traditional sellers are sitting on the market waiting even longer.

I will be following up with a couple of supplemental posts on these issues in coming days. One is going to be a comparison of the first quarter sales compared to last years first quarter. However I'm only going to compare the foreclosure sales of 2009 Q1 to all of Q1 sales in 2008. The other post will be about the advantage to traditional sellers of perhaps going the route of short selling instead of letting the foreclosure taking place. Why it is good for the sellers, as compared to getting foreclosed on or even bankruptcy, and why it is good for the values for existing property owners who don't intend on selling in the near future and therefore the community.

It is great to be back after a couple of weeks on the road. Thanks for reading.

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