There are some surprising results from the new contract activity. Noticeable increases in the total number of units going under contract to the plus side each of the last three months. Of course this is spurred by the foreclosure listings available as they offer the best price to buyers, and they ARE bringing out the buyers. Banks outpaced traditional sellers in negotiated agreements.
Now will these numbers turn into noticeable sales increases in units?? Still unable to determine in my opinion as some of the contracts taken are no doubt short sales, and short sales do not always make it to a successful close of escrow. The key thing that jumps out is the level of activity. More to come, but first the disclaimer...
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Data tables for all new listings tracked in the month of February 2009
| Item | Total Units | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Total Listings On Market | 510 | 498 |
| Total Listings Listed as Foreclosed | 66 | 68 |
| Item | Month of February | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| New Listings Total | 104 | 90 |
| New Listings Listed as Foreclosed | 33 | 22 |
| Average Asking Price Per Unit | $169,214 | $175,140 |
| Median Asking Price | $135,150 | $134,900 |
| Average Asking Price Per Square Foot | $102 | $105 |
| Units Re-Listed | 15 | 18 |
| Units Already Under Contract | 13 | 10 |
| Item | Month of February | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Living Area Square Footage | 1,649 | 1,665 |
| Bedrooms | 3.16 | 3.02 |
| Bathrooms | 2.1 | 2.06 |
| Garage | 1.9 | 1.73 |
| Year Built | 1996 | 1989 |
| Item | Lowest | Highest |
| Listings | $27,900 | $599,900 |
New listings popped back up over 100 for the shortest month of the year. That is never good news for an over-supplied market, but the silver lining is the continued downward movement of the initial price offer. That figure is down 20% from last February as you will see in a table later on in this report.
I did my own little calculation on supply of inventory based on the rate of new contracts (averaged over the last three months) and it appears that there is still at least nine months worth of inventory on the market. Still too high, but it was ten months less than at this point last year based on the same formula and calculations. I'll live with nine months worth of inventory over 19 months worth.
Getting better, but not solved.
Data tables for all new Units under contract tracked in the month of January 2008
| Item | Total Units | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Total Units Under Contract | 106 | 88 |
| Total Contracts Listed as Foreclosed | 55 | 45 |
| Item | Month of February | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| New Contracts Total | 62 | 55 |
| New Contracts Listed as Foreclosed | 34 | 31 |
| Average Marketing Price Per Unit | $137,313 | $131,448 |
| Median Marketing Price | $119,500 | $104,950 |
| Average Marketing Price Per Square Foot | $86 | $83 |
| Days on Market to Acquire a Contract | 84 | 111 |
| Average Marketing Price Reduction | $12,155 | $17,134 |
| Item | Month of February | Previous Month |
|---|---|---|
| Living Area Square Footage | 1,586 | 1,589 |
| Bedrooms | 3.05 | 3.15 |
| Bathrooms | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Garage | 1.9 | 1.76 |
| Year Built | 1998 | 1994 |
| Item | Lowest | Highest |
| Listings | $44,900 | $394,900 |
I say again, problem NOT solved, but some things jump out at me. It is at this price level that is bringing more activity from buyers. If you talk to just about any local real estate agent locally, I'm certain that most would say that the level of activity from buyers is up. So, if you are a seller, take a good look at the pricing here. If you can list at this level, you will likely get more traffic from buyers.
But keep in mind sellers that with the still excessive inventory, prices will likely get pushed further down until some balance returns to the market. The prices will likely overshoot to the low side before all is said and done.
I'm only guessing here, but long term out... these price levels look as if they will be the norm when the local housing market comes out of intensive care.
Year over year data listings/pending contracts
| Item | UP/DOWN | unit/dollar amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Listings | DOWN | 122 | (19%) |
| New Listings in February | UP | 10 | 10% |
| Average Price per New Listing | DOWN | $42,507 | (20%) |
| Median List Price | DOWN | $29,850 | (18%) |
| Item | UP/DOWN | unit/dollar amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Pending Contracts | UP | 4 | 3.9% |
| New Contracts for February | UP | 16 | 35% |
| Average Marketing Price per Unit | DOWN | $33,922 | (22%) |
| Median Marketing Price | DOWN | $29,500 | (20%) |
If you look closely at the two tables above, you can still see that buyers are still getting more of what they want as compared to the sellers and their initial price offerings in terms of percentages. Sellers are better at keeping up with the pace, but still falling behind.
The average marketing price is down on new contracts 22% from last year... they are down 40% compared to February of 2006.
Conclusions:
I've been waiting for a month like this to report on for quite some time. Not simply for the numbers to improve year over year... they have been improving month over month. The last time a month went by that saw over 60 new contracts reported was May of 2006. Now 60 is not a magic number... and I have no idea as of yet what the magic number might be (other than more of the good, less of the bad).
If, if, I say IF the data continues to roll in such a manner into the next quarter the local market will be closer to finding balance. Prices will continue to slide though, but perhaps begin to slide at a slower rate. Will still depend on the banks and how they handle the foreclosures as they are proving to be the best sellers at this time.
Now please understand that I'm basing all of this on the local activity, nothing else. I don't have any idea as to how the federal, state, or even local government and the actions they are taking will affect the market in the future. For now, without intervention, the bottom of the market feels like it is in sight.
Bottom line for this report is that activity is up and has been in what is basically the slower part of the year. Activity is up because prices are at a level that is drawing more buyers. Will it continue?? Check back next month to find out. Look for the sales report on the 9th or 10th later this month. Happy March!!
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