Thursday, April 10, 2008

March Sales Report (2008)

Bottom forming?? I know there's been tons of 'hopeful' talk about this phenomenon actually taking place once again at some point in our remaining lifetime... so is it happening here in the Kingman market?? I'm not sure.

But when you look at the charts you will see the average sales price and the median sales price not forming a bottom... but rather a cliff. Prices are falling fast. On bit of good news though... production numbers in terms of units sold increased over the March of 2007 figure AND obviously rose up against the very weak January and February figures for this year. All told though, this last quarter is easily the worst quarter of sales in recent history.

Let's get started... first the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings and sales in units chart:

Hey now... sales better in March then they were in September and March of last year... at least we have that going for us. Still way too many listings hitting the market meaning way too much competition for sellers and hardly any pressure on buyers. Clearly a trend that has move in the opposite direction.

Average listings and sales averages chart:

I thought about including a trend line for the last three months... but the chart already did that for me. Falling fast and hard now and the new sellers to the market are not keeping up. Real sellers will close the gap not widen it.

2005 through 2008 unit sales chart:

We never saw the orange line eclipse the yellow line last year, so it is somewhat surprising to see the new blue line beat the orange line. This marks the first time in 24 months that unit sales increased in a year over year look. Sales in units were UP... I say UP... 22.6% as compared to the previous March. Woot!! (oh yes... there is some sarcasm in my woot exclamation)

I have a feeling though that sales in units will be back down below last April's numbers. I hope I'm wrong.

2005 through 2008 average price chart:

So the previous chart showed some 'good' news because of the increase of sales year over year. The average sales price is DOWN... I say DOWN... 26.5% from the previous March. The average price per unit sold is LOWER... I say LOWER... than it was in March of 2005 = three years ago.

Will this stimulate some form of normalcy for prices?? Is this the new 'floor' for pricing?? Or does the average price continue to trend at the same pace??

Well... there is still a ways to drop in order to reach 2004 average prices. In March of 2004 the average price per unit sold was $112,646. The market average price for March is closer to 2004 levels than it was LAST YEAR.

2005 through 2008 median price chart:

Lowest median price for the month of March in the last four years. Says it all.

The range of units sold in March was between $62,000 through $305,000.

Average SFR statistics:

The average home sold in March had 3.08 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1.789 car garage, included 1,520 square feet of living space, and was built in 1992. The average hold sold for an average of $102 per square foot of living space.

It took an average of 109 days of marketing to attract a buyer to come to an agreement and a total of 149 days from the first day of marketing to the close of escrow.

Sellers reduced price $16,024 to attract a buyer on average from the first day of marketing, and conceded another $7,368 to the buyer in the transaction. The total average price concession for the homes sold in March was $23,392.

Bonus Charts:

The average price per square foot has dropped 22.7% since March of 2007.

On average, sellers conceded 13.15% from their original offering price for listings that closed in March of 2008 (sellers conceded just under 8% in March of 2007).

To sum it up... at the current sales run rate as compared to available inventory in the MLS, we find 17 months of inventory. A 'healthy' market has less than eight months of inventory (and that is pushing it).

See ya next time.

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