November Sales Report (2007)

It is almost year end and the data is shaping up now in terms of this year vs. last year. Stay tuned for a year end report but lets first take a look at the numbers from November. Some very interesting charts worth noting.

But first... the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings and sales in units chart:

Okay... the blue line is slowly heading south and it appears that the red line is, at the very least, flat-lining. Keep in mind that the blue line basically represents sellers that have hired a Realtor to help them sell their single family home in the Kingman area. Yes, there are some listings that are of the foreclosure type (either REO properties or short sales) but for the most part that line represents real sellers trying to sell their own property. Of course the red line represents sellers that have hired a Realtor to sell their single family unit... and have had success in getting the desired result.

The blue line still needs to ease off to a larger degree in order to purge the current listing inventory.

Average listings and sales averages chart:


The month to month numbers have been all over the place for both lines since June of this year and to me this signals some needed change. Yes the blue line (new listings) numbers are still much higher than the red line (sold properties) but the lines get close a couple of times and I believe the pricing gap is closing... which will be a good thing. When the numbers begin to get consistent again, and if all goes well, we should see less of a pricing gap between the lines.

2004 through 2007 unit sales chart:

2006 was clearly a down year as compared to 2004 and 2005... and the bad news is that 2007 is way off the pace of 2006. Again, for the umpteenth time, the sellers tried to put up a good fight but the buyers are clearly winning and their patience in this market will pay off. More on that in a bit.

2004 through 2007 average price chart:

Looking ahead to the year end data and 2007 is on pace to yield a lower average price than the average price in 2006... but just by a little. Still, a loss is a loss. You should notice that the yellow (2006) and the orange (2007) lines have been pretty close month in and month out throughout the year to this point, but it is also interesting to note that the average price per home sold in the months of October and November in each of the last three years is basically at the same price point. In fact it is likely that when we look at Decembers data... that the 2005 average price will be higher than the numbers for 2006 and 2007.

One last note, next year I will be dropping the 2004 data from this series of charts. The 2004 figures look lonely right now and many so called experts are saying that average prices may head down towards 2004 prices in the future. I am not a so called expert so I don't know how true that will be and will leave it up to the future charts to see how accurate the real estate pundits are next year.

2004 through 2007 median price chart:

The patient buyers are clearly winning and we are now able to see a measurable drop in prices this last half of the year. We are now seeing single family units selling for 2005 prices and below. If more sellers give in (in order to sell) then there is no telling how far down the price levels drop. Because of the overall inflated inventory of available listings I see no reason why prices won't continue to fall. Only when there is more balance between buyers and sellers will we see a 'bottom' of this market form. Sellers are simply competing with other sellers at this time and until we see buyers begin competing with buyers again I can't see how this equation changes.

Average SFR statistics:

The average home sold in November had 3.17 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2.17 car garage, included 1,727 square feet of living space, and was built in 1992. The average hold sold for an average of $118 per square foot of living space marking the lowest dollar figure since I began tracking this information.

It took an average of 108 days of marketing to attract a buyer to come to an agreement and a total of 153 days from the first day of marketing to the close of escrow.

Sellers reduced price $31,343 to attract a buyer on average from the first day of marketing, and conceded another $14,227 to the buyer in the transaction. The total average price concession for the homes sold in October was $45,570. One of the following bonus charts will show those figures and how they compare to previous months... and really... there is no comparison. Signs of desperate sellers are beginning to be noticed. Sellers are starting to give in and take what the market will bear.

Bonus Charts:

Yowsers!! Flex those muscles buyers.

Is it just me... or can you see a developing trend??

That kind of trend will likely lead to more sales down the road. Plenty of numbers here to chew on... for buyers AND sellers.

See you next time in the new year for the December wrap up and the annual report.