Donna brought up the 60 Minutes piece from last night and I thought I'd share. Is interesting to note that at the end the interviewee indicates that there are bargains in the stock market now because the stock market has finally figured out the massive problems that got it into the mess it is in.
Watch CBS Videos Online
I'd love to hear from local lenders as to how many Alt A and Option ARM's were written locally after the wave of sub primes, in terms of percentages at the least. Sales in terms of units has been off drastically as compared to 2005 and according to the 60 Minutes piece, the Alt A and Option ARM's were more the rage in 2006 and 2007. Of course in those years, many new homes were sold that may not have been represented by Realtors and therefore appeared on the MLS and hence did not show up on my monthly reports.
If lenders won't chime in... feel free to add any guesses or provide any data that you may have.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Monday reading...
It is too long to post here, but I will ask that you click on the link and read the whole thing.
One of my favorite passages...
It's from Greg Swann at BloodhoungBlog.com.
One of my favorite passages...
I’m willing to concede that I might look at the world through rose-colored glasses if you are willing to concede that my way of seeing the world is simply better. That, whether my way of tilting at the clouds of gloom may be in some way incorrect — according to some imaginary arbiter — nevertheless my way is the way that things get done. It’s always raining somewhere, but if you have time enough to care, you’re not working hard enough.
It's from Greg Swann at BloodhoungBlog.com.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Article to share...
On occasion I get asked to post an article. I feel that this is a good FYI so I am sharing...
by Jesse Herman
Mesothelioma Cancer Center
by Jesse Herman
Mesothelioma Cancer Center
Asbestos Removal and Green Alternatives – Path to a Healthy Home
When remodeling, foreclosing or purchasing an older home, there are many things to consider in the real estate industry. Used for more than a century as a form of building insulation and piping, homes built before 1980 have the strong potential of containing asbestos.
With increasing awareness and technology, there are a variety of insulation alternatives and building materials which easily replace the need for asbestos. Potential and current homeowners should be aware that exposure to asbestos fibers becomes a health concern when high levels are inhaled over a long period of time.
Used in millions of homes, asbestos insulation can be a real problem for homeowners due to causing a variety of lung ailments, such as malignant mesothelioma and peritoneal mesothelioma. Recent studies indicate that over 2,000 to 3,000 cases are diagnosed every year in the United States alone. Workers and real estate’s-man all over the world are now receiving the proper indications and information towards the risks they face.The United Nations Environmental Program states that the use of recycled building materials such as cotton fiber insulation can reduce energy use by 25 to 35 percent. The numbers continue to improve as more eco-friendly options become available. These kinds of figures have attracted those who were unaware of eco-friendly construction.
Asbestos removal in public facilities, homes and workplaces must be undertaken by a licensed asbestos abatement contractor if the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) are not violated. Once the removal is complete, green insulation options should be given serious consideration, such as: Cellulose, Cotton Fiber and Lcynene. These asbestos alternatives will not only reduce energy costs, but allow for a clean, healthy home, free of health damaging materials.
Thanks for sharing Jesse.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
November Sales Report (2008)
Not the November to remember as you will see. Unit sales were down compared to last years paltry numbers ending a decent string of unit sale increases year over year. Couple that with one closed transaction over $500k to skew the average a bit, we will see the average sales price rise as compared to last month. I'll have more on that after the disclaimer...
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Listings and sales in units chart:
I can't get over how symbiotic the two lines shown above seem to be. The last three months basically mirror each other, as one goes up -- so does the other. Keep in mind that these are two different sets of data. The blue line is new listings that appeared in the month, the red line represents closed transactions for the month. If the oversupply of inventory is ever to be corrected... these lines will have to intersect and actually switch places for a length of time.
Average listings and sales averages chart:
I mentioned the one large dollar transaction at the top of this post. If I take that unit out of the equation, the remaining units sold in November averaged $139,351 each. Prices are still falling, on average. Price your new listing accordingly.
2005 through 2008 unit sales chart:
And thus ends a nice little three month winning streak in terms of unit sales as compared to last year. 2008 will now likely end lower in total single family sales in units than was seen in 2007. In order to end the year higher, 50 units would need to close in December. Christmas miracles, anyone??
2005 through 2008 average price chart:
Something like that.
The average price of closed sales fell 26% compared to sales recorded in November of 2007.
2005 through 2008 median price chart:
The median sales price for closed transactions is off by 31.5% as compared to November of 2007.
The price range of sales for November 2008 is $69,900 through $535,000.
Average SFR statistics:
The average home sold in November had 3.11 bedrooms, 2.2 bathrooms, a 2.2 car garage, included 1,648 square feet of living space, and was built in 1997. The average hold sold for an average of $91 per square foot of living space.
It took an average of 82 days of marketing to attract a buyer to come to an agreement and a total of 116 days from the first day of marketing to the close of escrow.
Sellers reduced price on average $19,006 to attract a buyer on average from the first day of marketing, and conceded and average of another $16,684 to the buyer in the transaction. The total average price concession for the homes sold in November was $35,690 (19.18% total reduction).
Bonus Charts:
Foreclosure Impact:
In terms of units sold, of the 36 sales reported for November -- 16 were listed as foreclosed on (44% of units sold).
The price range of foreclosed units sold for November was from $69,900 up to $176,200.
The average price of foreclosed units sold for November was $123,488 (17.9% lower than the overall November figure).
The median price of foreclosed units sold for November was $109,900.
The average foreclosure home sold in November had 3.06 bedrooms, 2.1 bathrooms, a 2.3 car garage, included 1,546 square feet of living space, and was built in 2001. The average home sold for $79 per square foot of living space. Owners of foreclosed on homes conceded 18% off the initial offering price.
Conclusions:
Traditional sellers actually out sold bank owned sellers in November. I also have noticed a plateau of sorts from the bank owned sales on pricing. This either means that the banks have reached their threshold of pain in this market, or another round of price reductions are coming. No matter which one, newly listed homes still hit the market priced too high for the current market so I suspect further reductions in price to lure more buyers.
Otherwise it is more of the same... can buyers afford to buy?? Can sellers afford to sell?? Only you can answer that question.
Lastly, the only other conclusion I have today is to wish you all a warm and friendly holiday season. My family celebrates Christmas, but I bid you good tidings however your family celebrates. No matter how we celebrate, it is the season to be of good cheer and a good neighbor.
See you back next month for the December wrap up and the year end report. Here is a quick preview... the average sale of a home in Kingman in 2008 will be at a lower level than it was in 2005 by a healthy amount. Yet the Kingman market will only see a little over 40% the amount of units sold compared to 2005.
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Listings and sales in units chart:
I can't get over how symbiotic the two lines shown above seem to be. The last three months basically mirror each other, as one goes up -- so does the other. Keep in mind that these are two different sets of data. The blue line is new listings that appeared in the month, the red line represents closed transactions for the month. If the oversupply of inventory is ever to be corrected... these lines will have to intersect and actually switch places for a length of time.
Average listings and sales averages chart:
I mentioned the one large dollar transaction at the top of this post. If I take that unit out of the equation, the remaining units sold in November averaged $139,351 each. Prices are still falling, on average. Price your new listing accordingly.2005 through 2008 unit sales chart:
And thus ends a nice little three month winning streak in terms of unit sales as compared to last year. 2008 will now likely end lower in total single family sales in units than was seen in 2007. In order to end the year higher, 50 units would need to close in December. Christmas miracles, anyone??2005 through 2008 average price chart:
"Hello down there Light Blue line."
"Hello up there Orange, Yellow, and Pink lines," said the lonely Light Blue line.
"You look lonely down there Light Blue line."
"I won't be lonely down here next year," guessed the lonely Light Blue line.
Something like that.
The average price of closed sales fell 26% compared to sales recorded in November of 2007.
2005 through 2008 median price chart:
The median sales price for closed transactions is off by 31.5% as compared to November of 2007.The price range of sales for November 2008 is $69,900 through $535,000.
Average SFR statistics:
The average home sold in November had 3.11 bedrooms, 2.2 bathrooms, a 2.2 car garage, included 1,648 square feet of living space, and was built in 1997. The average hold sold for an average of $91 per square foot of living space.
It took an average of 82 days of marketing to attract a buyer to come to an agreement and a total of 116 days from the first day of marketing to the close of escrow.
Sellers reduced price on average $19,006 to attract a buyer on average from the first day of marketing, and conceded and average of another $16,684 to the buyer in the transaction. The total average price concession for the homes sold in November was $35,690 (19.18% total reduction).
Bonus Charts:
Foreclosure Impact:
In terms of units sold, of the 36 sales reported for November -- 16 were listed as foreclosed on (44% of units sold).
The price range of foreclosed units sold for November was from $69,900 up to $176,200.
The average price of foreclosed units sold for November was $123,488 (17.9% lower than the overall November figure).
The median price of foreclosed units sold for November was $109,900.
The average foreclosure home sold in November had 3.06 bedrooms, 2.1 bathrooms, a 2.3 car garage, included 1,546 square feet of living space, and was built in 2001. The average home sold for $79 per square foot of living space. Owners of foreclosed on homes conceded 18% off the initial offering price.
Conclusions:
Traditional sellers actually out sold bank owned sellers in November. I also have noticed a plateau of sorts from the bank owned sales on pricing. This either means that the banks have reached their threshold of pain in this market, or another round of price reductions are coming. No matter which one, newly listed homes still hit the market priced too high for the current market so I suspect further reductions in price to lure more buyers.
Otherwise it is more of the same... can buyers afford to buy?? Can sellers afford to sell?? Only you can answer that question.
Lastly, the only other conclusion I have today is to wish you all a warm and friendly holiday season. My family celebrates Christmas, but I bid you good tidings however your family celebrates. No matter how we celebrate, it is the season to be of good cheer and a good neighbor.
See you back next month for the December wrap up and the year end report. Here is a quick preview... the average sale of a home in Kingman in 2008 will be at a lower level than it was in 2005 by a healthy amount. Yet the Kingman market will only see a little over 40% the amount of units sold compared to 2005.
Advice for present day home buyers...
Yeah, I said home buyers (I know you're out there).
The advice comes from the Arizona Real Estate Notebook, here's just a bit from that post...
Click and read the whole thing. It's not long.
The advice comes from the Arizona Real Estate Notebook, here's just a bit from that post...
Get pre-approved by your mortgage professional. While there are a lot of great deals out there, getting credit is becoming more difficult, and it’s taking longer and longer to complete a transaction.
Click and read the whole thing. It's not long.
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
"Our markets don't necessarily draw"
There's been plenty of bits about impending rate increases and perhaps even tax increases in the local news lately. I'll bet that our locality is not the only one engaging in such discussions at the present time.
Today in this article from the KDMiner.com about how the city is already tightening it's already tight belt, comes the following quote...
I'm not using the quote as an indictment on Ms. Loyd or anyone else at the city. But I do find it odd that the community has an interested party knocking at the door with a plan for a new shopping center, a huge Interstate cutting through the city with more than 5 million vehicles a year on it (not counting semi trucks), and an economy that leaves us talking businesses in jeopardy/people losing jobs/folks leaving town for hopefully greener pastures. We've also seen the city coordinate an effort to remind locals to shop local for their holiday shopping... even if it means heading outside the city limits to other 'out-of-town' locations within the county.
Yeah, no kidding... it is not adding up.
Not for nothing, but next year I hope we see wall to wall coverage of non stop public workshops, public hearings, and ongoing negotiations with any interested party looking to bring improvements to this community's situation.
I'll go out on a limb and say that the majority of the folks that live in Kingman won't rest easy with talk of increasing sales taxes. Surely the talk of bond measures won't put folks in a good mood on a grand scale. Adding a property tax to the mix will be a non starter.
So what is left??
How about beneficial development meets with the path of least resistance for a change?? Help the market by removing unnecessary obstacles that don't seem to be meeting their intended goals. Let others put their money where their mouth is. Some of something would be better than all of nothing.
While we're at it, let's get rid of the 168 acres of land that isn't doing anyone in the community a bit of good other than those that use it for a dump-site. Auction it off and let someone else come up with a vision since together... we have none for this property (where's the talk about the Kingman version of Central Park anyway?? As suspected, that talk was just a convenient political ruse) .
The 'nice' weather is just not enough of an attractant to bring people here. We just had a glorious fall season weather wise and I bet more people left town than located in Kingman. The money supply shrinks for many reasons, but none bigger than a net loss of people with a buck or two. And as Ms. Loyd correctly pointed out... this ain't no shopping destination. Kingman must find a way to bring money here given the situation we have voted ourselves into over the years.
But I digress...
I didn't vote for the man (The One)... but the words 'hope' and 'change' still resonate with me at this time I guess. Thanks for reading.
Today in this article from the KDMiner.com about how the city is already tightening it's already tight belt, comes the following quote...
"The shopping venues we have in Kingman are more of the mainstream shopping opportunities," (Finance Director Coral) Loyd said. "People are able to meet their basic needs here ... (but) our markets don't necessarily draw, I would guess, a lot of out-of-town shoppers."
I'm not using the quote as an indictment on Ms. Loyd or anyone else at the city. But I do find it odd that the community has an interested party knocking at the door with a plan for a new shopping center, a huge Interstate cutting through the city with more than 5 million vehicles a year on it (not counting semi trucks), and an economy that leaves us talking businesses in jeopardy/people losing jobs/folks leaving town for hopefully greener pastures. We've also seen the city coordinate an effort to remind locals to shop local for their holiday shopping... even if it means heading outside the city limits to other 'out-of-town' locations within the county.
Yeah, no kidding... it is not adding up.
Not for nothing, but next year I hope we see wall to wall coverage of non stop public workshops, public hearings, and ongoing negotiations with any interested party looking to bring improvements to this community's situation.
I'll go out on a limb and say that the majority of the folks that live in Kingman won't rest easy with talk of increasing sales taxes. Surely the talk of bond measures won't put folks in a good mood on a grand scale. Adding a property tax to the mix will be a non starter.
So what is left??
How about beneficial development meets with the path of least resistance for a change?? Help the market by removing unnecessary obstacles that don't seem to be meeting their intended goals. Let others put their money where their mouth is. Some of something would be better than all of nothing.
While we're at it, let's get rid of the 168 acres of land that isn't doing anyone in the community a bit of good other than those that use it for a dump-site. Auction it off and let someone else come up with a vision since together... we have none for this property (where's the talk about the Kingman version of Central Park anyway?? As suspected, that talk was just a convenient political ruse) .
The 'nice' weather is just not enough of an attractant to bring people here. We just had a glorious fall season weather wise and I bet more people left town than located in Kingman. The money supply shrinks for many reasons, but none bigger than a net loss of people with a buck or two. And as Ms. Loyd correctly pointed out... this ain't no shopping destination. Kingman must find a way to bring money here given the situation we have voted ourselves into over the years.
But I digress...
I didn't vote for the man (The One)... but the words 'hope' and 'change' still resonate with me at this time I guess. Thanks for reading.
Monday, December 08, 2008
Also from the conference...
This image was used in a couple of presentations I attended. You may want to click on it for a larger view.
Planning for growth...
Last Friday I attended the 2008 Boards & Commissions Conference in Phoenix. The city of Kingman sent me there for the opportunity to help me get acquainted with my new appointment to the local Planning and Zoning Commission. The conference was put on by the Arizona Department of Commerce and it included four different sessions on various topics.
Of the sessions I attended, one thing stuck out as a prevailing subject... the expectation of growth throughout the state. (Well, I did attend one breakout session that had to do with Open Meeting Law and Conflict of Interest and growth wasn't really the subject there.)
Of course Arizona is a very diverse state and many communities are in various stages of development. Some of the subject matter was focused on transportation improvements via light rail solutions, something I seriously doubt that Kingman is planning on or is even applicable at this time. Some of the principles covered that would apply to Kingman though I felt were the following...
The encouragement of regional, community, and stakeholder collaboration. This one fits nicely with my overall outlook... calling on the community to come together to identify shared values and common vision for what we want the community to be and making the information accessible leads to greater public involvement and transparency. I think I even wrote a letter to editor some time ago on this subject matter. From that link...
The next couple of principles could be combined the way I see it in our location... mixed land uses and the creation of walkable neighborhoods. One of the underlying themes to the overall theme of growth was the reduction of the dependence of automobiles for transportation (reduction, not elimination). I believe that new communities/developments in the city will most likely keep this in mind and lead to new kinds of demand for housing in our area. We will likely see such terms as healthier lifestyles, environmental concerns, and energy conversation get thrown around as Kingman continues to grow and develop. Supporting the implementation of mixed land uses and walkable neighborhoods will be key in this regard, if simple support is not enough then the city may want to consider some sort of incentives.
The above principles lead to the next principle in some manner, the creation of a good range of housing opportunities and choices. Housing needs are diverse, no doubt, and I don't have a feel at this time for how good the current choices are in meeting the demands that people have. At this time, it is mostly about affordability for most, given the current economy. Having a nice range of housing options near employment centers will be key going forward.
The next principle covered was fostering distinctive and attractive communities with a strong sense of place. Community characteristics are one driver of economic development. Communities with a strong sense of place must reflect the character and values of the people who live there. My question... are we achieving this in Kingman??
The last principle from the presentation I attended that I felt applied at this time to current events in Kingman is making development decisions predictable, fair, and cost effective. I'll just quote from the materials...
To me, the above hits on many tones here in Kingman currently.
Lastly, one other term jumped out at me in the materials I collected... public/private partnerships.
It was an interesting conference and I was glad to be able to attend. I look forward to my appointment and the duties that come with it. I'm sure I have plenty of learning to do along the way.
Thanks again to the many that have called, emailed, or even stopped by to congratulate me.
Of the sessions I attended, one thing stuck out as a prevailing subject... the expectation of growth throughout the state. (Well, I did attend one breakout session that had to do with Open Meeting Law and Conflict of Interest and growth wasn't really the subject there.)
Of course Arizona is a very diverse state and many communities are in various stages of development. Some of the subject matter was focused on transportation improvements via light rail solutions, something I seriously doubt that Kingman is planning on or is even applicable at this time. Some of the principles covered that would apply to Kingman though I felt were the following...
The encouragement of regional, community, and stakeholder collaboration. This one fits nicely with my overall outlook... calling on the community to come together to identify shared values and common vision for what we want the community to be and making the information accessible leads to greater public involvement and transparency. I think I even wrote a letter to editor some time ago on this subject matter. From that link...
On July 16, I spoke to City Council and briefly shared a vision where an inclusive group of community leaders could collaborate together to provide a list of solutions that would make the decision process a bit easier on the elected officials. The intention was to send a strong signal to the community that we all have a golden opportunity to make a real impact on the future of Kingman. By working together, we could create a friendly path to take that would already have the full support of all.
The next couple of principles could be combined the way I see it in our location... mixed land uses and the creation of walkable neighborhoods. One of the underlying themes to the overall theme of growth was the reduction of the dependence of automobiles for transportation (reduction, not elimination). I believe that new communities/developments in the city will most likely keep this in mind and lead to new kinds of demand for housing in our area. We will likely see such terms as healthier lifestyles, environmental concerns, and energy conversation get thrown around as Kingman continues to grow and develop. Supporting the implementation of mixed land uses and walkable neighborhoods will be key in this regard, if simple support is not enough then the city may want to consider some sort of incentives.
The above principles lead to the next principle in some manner, the creation of a good range of housing opportunities and choices. Housing needs are diverse, no doubt, and I don't have a feel at this time for how good the current choices are in meeting the demands that people have. At this time, it is mostly about affordability for most, given the current economy. Having a nice range of housing options near employment centers will be key going forward.
The next principle covered was fostering distinctive and attractive communities with a strong sense of place. Community characteristics are one driver of economic development. Communities with a strong sense of place must reflect the character and values of the people who live there. My question... are we achieving this in Kingman??
The last principle from the presentation I attended that I felt applied at this time to current events in Kingman is making development decisions predictable, fair, and cost effective. I'll just quote from the materials...
Development tends to follow the path of least resistance, so the development that is the most desirable should be the easiest to do. There should be as few barriers as possible to restoring historic buildings and creating infill development. Design and construction standards, review and approval processes and finance and fee strategies should be clear for all types of development. Uncertainty creates misunderstandings, aggravates disagreements, costs developers money and ultimately serves no one in the community.
To me, the above hits on many tones here in Kingman currently.
Lastly, one other term jumped out at me in the materials I collected... public/private partnerships.
It was an interesting conference and I was glad to be able to attend. I look forward to my appointment and the duties that come with it. I'm sure I have plenty of learning to do along the way.
Thanks again to the many that have called, emailed, or even stopped by to congratulate me.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Local lender says...
Got an email this morning from a local lender...
Opportunities.
Hello, as of this morning I can do 4.875% on a 30 year fixed purchase!
Opportunities.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Crazy Headline of the Day...
MarketWatch.com has this today...
Link here.
Like many would be property owners out there right now... I'm not buying this either.
U.S. homes now undervalued, economists say
Link here.
Like many would be property owners out there right now... I'm not buying this either.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
My last dance at WARDEX
** Warning, this post is more or less about a boring Realtor subject**
My time is up as a serving board director for the Western Arizona Realtor Data Exchange (WARDEX). We are having our annual shareholders meeting today and it marks my last official duty as a member of the Board of Directors.
As some may know, I have been serving as a volunteer for local and state Realtor Associations/Organizations since 2002 (where has THAT time gone??). During this time a new Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Organization was formed that combined three local Realtor Association's MLS's into one regional organization. This sort of collaboration of services is not new and our group didn't invent the wheel on the process. In fact, at some point in the future, there will likely be more collaborative efforts made with other organizations/services. Such is life in the Internet age.
Locally, I remember the first informal conversation about forming a regional MLS in 2004. I spoke with an Association leader from the Lake Havasu City Realtors Association and she made a remark about perhaps working towards that kind of goal. Again, it was an informal conversation and I didn't think it would necessarily lead anywhere (or maybe it was that I didn't want to make an effort at that time, whatever).
Later on, in the summer of 2005 as vice president of the Kingman/Golden Valley Association of Realtors, I attended a local 'Brokers Council' meeting. The subject was brought up by some of the brokers in attendance. I made a note and proceded to make a call or two to the other local Assoiations (the aformentioned Lake Havasu group and the Bullhead City/Mohave Valley Association).
Depending on how history views those moments, what came after was plenty of heavy lifting done by many volunteers that continues to this very day. Hopefully history will be kind.
Here is further reading on the subject as I had written about them before on this blog (here and here).
Somehow or another, a new organization was formed and a new service was unveiled. To say the road was well paved and easy to manuever on... would be lying. The founding members faced many obstacles then and there are still plenty of growing pains today.
I stayed on as a director from day one, was officially appointed to the board for a two year term thereafter... a term that expires basically today.
The overall effort is something that I am very proud to have been a part of. It was a fairly large undertaking made by many volunteers working towards the benefit of the whole of three different local Realtor Associations.
Most importantly for me were the friendships that were made through the entire experience. In some cases it was friendship through fire. Many times I wanted to bang the table with my shoe to get a point across. I lost more arguments than I could count (probably a good thing), but always in the end mutual respect found its way. I doubt that I'll know how much impact the experience has had on my life, career, or otherwise until some time passes and the dust clears (and my schedule opens up a little more).
For any WARDEX members that may stumble across this post, yeah -- I know -- things aren't perfect with the service or even the organization, but my time is up so the time -- now -- is yours. Hopefully you will be inclined to help make the organization better as time goes along. A little goes a long way. And if you can't help, that is okay -- just remember that the folks that are serving are doing so on a volunteer basis and do their best for for the whole.
I was going to post the names of the many that have helped over the years, but I worry that I will leave someone important out. So I'll simply say that I've enjoyed the spirit and the commraderie through it all.
For those that continue to serve, and those that are now coming on to fill the vacant seats, I wish you all good fortune and my gratitude for the time and service to all the members. May you continue with beneficial progress on a long and winding sojurn.
My time is up as a serving board director for the Western Arizona Realtor Data Exchange (WARDEX). We are having our annual shareholders meeting today and it marks my last official duty as a member of the Board of Directors.
As some may know, I have been serving as a volunteer for local and state Realtor Associations/Organizations since 2002 (where has THAT time gone??). During this time a new Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Organization was formed that combined three local Realtor Association's MLS's into one regional organization. This sort of collaboration of services is not new and our group didn't invent the wheel on the process. In fact, at some point in the future, there will likely be more collaborative efforts made with other organizations/services. Such is life in the Internet age.
Locally, I remember the first informal conversation about forming a regional MLS in 2004. I spoke with an Association leader from the Lake Havasu City Realtors Association and she made a remark about perhaps working towards that kind of goal. Again, it was an informal conversation and I didn't think it would necessarily lead anywhere (or maybe it was that I didn't want to make an effort at that time, whatever).
Later on, in the summer of 2005 as vice president of the Kingman/Golden Valley Association of Realtors, I attended a local 'Brokers Council' meeting. The subject was brought up by some of the brokers in attendance. I made a note and proceded to make a call or two to the other local Assoiations (the aformentioned Lake Havasu group and the Bullhead City/Mohave Valley Association).
Depending on how history views those moments, what came after was plenty of heavy lifting done by many volunteers that continues to this very day. Hopefully history will be kind.
Here is further reading on the subject as I had written about them before on this blog (here and here).
Somehow or another, a new organization was formed and a new service was unveiled. To say the road was well paved and easy to manuever on... would be lying. The founding members faced many obstacles then and there are still plenty of growing pains today.
I stayed on as a director from day one, was officially appointed to the board for a two year term thereafter... a term that expires basically today.
The overall effort is something that I am very proud to have been a part of. It was a fairly large undertaking made by many volunteers working towards the benefit of the whole of three different local Realtor Associations.
Most importantly for me were the friendships that were made through the entire experience. In some cases it was friendship through fire. Many times I wanted to bang the table with my shoe to get a point across. I lost more arguments than I could count (probably a good thing), but always in the end mutual respect found its way. I doubt that I'll know how much impact the experience has had on my life, career, or otherwise until some time passes and the dust clears (and my schedule opens up a little more).
For any WARDEX members that may stumble across this post, yeah -- I know -- things aren't perfect with the service or even the organization, but my time is up so the time -- now -- is yours. Hopefully you will be inclined to help make the organization better as time goes along. A little goes a long way. And if you can't help, that is okay -- just remember that the folks that are serving are doing so on a volunteer basis and do their best for for the whole.
I was going to post the names of the many that have helped over the years, but I worry that I will leave someone important out. So I'll simply say that I've enjoyed the spirit and the commraderie through it all.
For those that continue to serve, and those that are now coming on to fill the vacant seats, I wish you all good fortune and my gratitude for the time and service to all the members. May you continue with beneficial progress on a long and winding sojurn.
Did Nader win the election for president last month??
I only ask that because last month I posted this...
Well this morning I received a phone call from P&Z Commission Member Allen Mossberg informing me that I was appointed to the Kingman Planning and Zoning Commission by the City Council. After checking my email this morning I find that MOCO commenter Loyd had left me a message of congratulations for the appointment. I didn't think that I would be considered after the last P&Z meeting when they made their recommendations and left me off that list.
Hey, I'm honored and humbled.
Edit:
I just watched the video of the meeting last night (linked here, it appears early in the meeting and they wrap up the appointments for P&Z within the first 10 minutes). I appreciate the kind words offered by Mayor Salem and the motion made by Council Member Deering.
I'll go out on a limb and say the last dude on the list has as good of a chance to be appointed (to Kingman Planning and Zoning Commission) as Ralph Nader did to win the election for president of the United States a week ago.
Well this morning I received a phone call from P&Z Commission Member Allen Mossberg informing me that I was appointed to the Kingman Planning and Zoning Commission by the City Council. After checking my email this morning I find that MOCO commenter Loyd had left me a message of congratulations for the appointment. I didn't think that I would be considered after the last P&Z meeting when they made their recommendations and left me off that list.
Hey, I'm honored and humbled.
Edit:
I just watched the video of the meeting last night (linked here, it appears early in the meeting and they wrap up the appointments for P&Z within the first 10 minutes). I appreciate the kind words offered by Mayor Salem and the motion made by Council Member Deering.
Monday, December 01, 2008
November Listings Report (2008)
After a glorious holiday weekend spent with my Kingman family, after the tryptophan has worn off, after the surprising play of the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving night, it is time for the Listings Report here at MOCO Real.
Without further delay... the disclaimer...
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Listings:
As of December 1, total listings available for single family residence equals 569 (down from 592 on November1). The total number of units that are listed as 'foreclosure' listings is 92. The rate of new listings taken per day in November was 2.8. Compared to last years total listings available on the market are down by 19.6%.
There were 84 new listings taken in November (down as compared to 100 in October). The total number of units listed as 'foreclosure' listings for November was 30. The average asking price for the new listings is $185,483 (down from last months $201,437). The median asking price is $129,000 (down from $151,900 previously). Newly listed units are down 16 units from last year and the average initial offering price dropped 22.6% as compared to November of 2007.
The average newly listed home in November has 3.08 bedrooms, 2.1 baths, a 2 car garage, with 1,650 square feet of living space and was built in 1992. The average asking price per square foot of living space is $112. Lastly, 11 of the new listings were actually re-listed either by the same or different broker. 4 units listed last month are already under contract and of those none had closed in November.
The original price of new listings last month was from $44,000 through $675,000.
Units under contract:
As of December 1 there are 62 total units under contract (down compared to the number of 75 last month). Of these, 29 were listed as 'foreclosure' sales.
38 units entered into contracts in the month of November (off from the 47 the previous month). Of these, 21 units were listed as 'foreclosure' sales. The average asking price for homes that received contracts was $130,848 (down from $164,844 last month) and the median asking price for November was $114,900 (down from the previous months $134,200 figure). Units entering contract are actually up from November of 2007 by 8 units and the average marketing price is down 33.5%.
The average home that went under contract in November has 3.1 bedrooms, 2 baths, a 1.77 car garage, with 1,468 square feet of living space, and was built in 1990. The average asking price per square foot of living space for listings that entered contract in November was $89. It was also priced $19,742 higher when it first was listed as compared to its current asking price (the average price reduction was $14,753 last month). The average marketing time to reach a contract was 99 days (from 125 last month).
The advertised price of units that entered contract was from $49,900 through $451,000.
Conclusions:
I typed the word down many times in comparison to last month and even last year in this report, but not all of those figures are down-ers... if you are a buyer. A couple of highlights to review...
The inventory number (listings available) has dropped a touch under 20% since last year at this time. Still... inventory is high, too high, but hopefully on the right road to recovery (the road is long though I must warn).
New listing average price is also down over 20% since last year. That means that sellers are entering the market more aggressively, like they should, but might still have some more to go. The good news here is that sellers are at least responding to the market. I'm certain that foreclosed listings have a large part to do with that.
More listings took a contract than the year before, even in this down year... which simply points to a more acceptable price for buyers.
Sellers continue to offer price incentives (discounts) in order to attract buyers. The average home that took a contract last month discounted nearly $20 grand from the time they entered market to the time they accepted a contract. The market is working.
We are in what is traditionally the slowest part of the year for sales. November, December, January, and into February we won't see record breaking production but hopefully we will see similar production as last year at these times. Perhaps establishing a bottom. Stay tuned for those results.
Foreclosures will continue to put pressure on prices as there were more of those listings available than in previous months. If you are selling, do the best you can by improving the condition of your home and price it accordingly as a premium offering. Condition, marketability, location, and of course fair market price will be your friend on your quest to sell.
Buyers... hey, I know you're out there... I don't know what to tell you in certain terms. If you are able to obtain an advantageous financing product and prospective homes are in the affordable range for you, then it may just be a great time to buy... for you. Only you can answer that. I simply do not know what will be available heading into next year with a new federal government taking control. I will do my best to bring you the latest information as it reveals itself.
I have my fingers crossed that next year will improve in terms of units sold, but I'm not placing any bets (especially on the Philly Eagles).
See you next month!!
Without further delay... the disclaimer...
Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.
Listings:
As of December 1, total listings available for single family residence equals 569 (down from 592 on November1). The total number of units that are listed as 'foreclosure' listings is 92. The rate of new listings taken per day in November was 2.8. Compared to last years total listings available on the market are down by 19.6%.
There were 84 new listings taken in November (down as compared to 100 in October). The total number of units listed as 'foreclosure' listings for November was 30. The average asking price for the new listings is $185,483 (down from last months $201,437). The median asking price is $129,000 (down from $151,900 previously). Newly listed units are down 16 units from last year and the average initial offering price dropped 22.6% as compared to November of 2007.
The average newly listed home in November has 3.08 bedrooms, 2.1 baths, a 2 car garage, with 1,650 square feet of living space and was built in 1992. The average asking price per square foot of living space is $112. Lastly, 11 of the new listings were actually re-listed either by the same or different broker. 4 units listed last month are already under contract and of those none had closed in November.
The original price of new listings last month was from $44,000 through $675,000.
Units under contract:
As of December 1 there are 62 total units under contract (down compared to the number of 75 last month). Of these, 29 were listed as 'foreclosure' sales.
38 units entered into contracts in the month of November (off from the 47 the previous month). Of these, 21 units were listed as 'foreclosure' sales. The average asking price for homes that received contracts was $130,848 (down from $164,844 last month) and the median asking price for November was $114,900 (down from the previous months $134,200 figure). Units entering contract are actually up from November of 2007 by 8 units and the average marketing price is down 33.5%.
The average home that went under contract in November has 3.1 bedrooms, 2 baths, a 1.77 car garage, with 1,468 square feet of living space, and was built in 1990. The average asking price per square foot of living space for listings that entered contract in November was $89. It was also priced $19,742 higher when it first was listed as compared to its current asking price (the average price reduction was $14,753 last month). The average marketing time to reach a contract was 99 days (from 125 last month).
The advertised price of units that entered contract was from $49,900 through $451,000.
Conclusions:
I typed the word down many times in comparison to last month and even last year in this report, but not all of those figures are down-ers... if you are a buyer. A couple of highlights to review...
The inventory number (listings available) has dropped a touch under 20% since last year at this time. Still... inventory is high, too high, but hopefully on the right road to recovery (the road is long though I must warn).
New listing average price is also down over 20% since last year. That means that sellers are entering the market more aggressively, like they should, but might still have some more to go. The good news here is that sellers are at least responding to the market. I'm certain that foreclosed listings have a large part to do with that.
More listings took a contract than the year before, even in this down year... which simply points to a more acceptable price for buyers.
Sellers continue to offer price incentives (discounts) in order to attract buyers. The average home that took a contract last month discounted nearly $20 grand from the time they entered market to the time they accepted a contract. The market is working.
We are in what is traditionally the slowest part of the year for sales. November, December, January, and into February we won't see record breaking production but hopefully we will see similar production as last year at these times. Perhaps establishing a bottom. Stay tuned for those results.
Foreclosures will continue to put pressure on prices as there were more of those listings available than in previous months. If you are selling, do the best you can by improving the condition of your home and price it accordingly as a premium offering. Condition, marketability, location, and of course fair market price will be your friend on your quest to sell.
Buyers... hey, I know you're out there... I don't know what to tell you in certain terms. If you are able to obtain an advantageous financing product and prospective homes are in the affordable range for you, then it may just be a great time to buy... for you. Only you can answer that. I simply do not know what will be available heading into next year with a new federal government taking control. I will do my best to bring you the latest information as it reveals itself.
I have my fingers crossed that next year will improve in terms of units sold, but I'm not placing any bets (especially on the Philly Eagles).
See you next month!!
Sunday, November 30, 2008
You've heard of the CRA...
Investor's Business Daily has an editorial complete with their facts and myths for all to see linked here.
I'm not really trying to play the blame game, instead I'm looking more for solutions and at the end of the piece there is this...
I'm not really trying to play the blame game, instead I'm looking more for solutions and at the end of the piece there is this...
The exotic securitizations that have gotten so much of the blame were a symptom, not the cause, of the crisis.
The architects of the crisis want to divert attention from their own culpability by blaming the markets rather than their own regulations mandating that banks make high-risk loans based on race.
In fact, regulations had almost everything to do with this mess. And instead of strengthening them to atone for the alleged "sins of capitalism," we should be abolishing them.
Two bills in the House would be a good place to start. HR 7264, which has nine co-sponsors, would repeal the CRA. And HR 7094, with 17 co-sponsors, would dissolve Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
During the last severe slump, President Reagan deregulated the economy, saying: "Government is not the solution to the problem; government is the problem." He's as right today as he was then.
Whoops... copying the above and agreeing with it is sorta letting my inner-Reagan shine through a bit much... oh well.
Happy Sunday!!
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Friday, November 28, 2008
Happy shopping day...
I know that today is called 'Black Friday' but to me that doesn't sound all that great this year. I realize the reference is for the prospects of merchants--retailers being in the 'black' for the year (you know, turning a profit).
But with the endless media reports of the next Great (I've never understood what was so 'Great' about it) Depression accumulating in my RSS feed readers and such, I've decided to call this day simply 'shopping' day. So enjoy yourselves out there, and be safe.
Also, the three local municipalities have launched a shop local campaign... click here to read all about it from MohaveBusiness.com.
But with the endless media reports of the next Great (I've never understood what was so 'Great' about it) Depression accumulating in my RSS feed readers and such, I've decided to call this day simply 'shopping' day. So enjoy yourselves out there, and be safe.
Also, the three local municipalities have launched a shop local campaign... click here to read all about it from MohaveBusiness.com.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
I'm giving thanks...
It is the season after all. From the bottom of my heart, thank you so very much for stopping by on occasion to read MOCO Real.
I sincerely hope that you have time for friends and family this year, to share a hug with those that you love, to smile and laugh a little extra for this Thanksgiving holiday.
For me, I'm thankful that my home is full of cherished company for the long weekend. Our family tradition is changing somewhat this year due to the loss of a loved one who always found time to spoil us with her Thanksgiving feast. I might do some sort of live-blogging of my attempt at preparing both the turkey (already in the brine as I type) and the ham... could be good a few laughs.
Together we face serious challenges that we may not have seen before in our lives. It is always my intention to wish for good fortune for all and I continue to do just that for you. But the 'news' reports indicate that times may be restrictive to one degree or another. If there is a silver lining there, it might just be that we will truly appreciate the other things we have always been thankful for on this holiday. Only you know what those are, and I wish you all peace, prosperity, opportunity, health, and love.
Thank you readers, you make my day everyday. Happy Thanksgiving!!
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
An interesting attack on the so called 'impact fees'...
I was just emailed a heads up about a letter to the editor found in today's edition of the Miner online.
Here is a preview... but please be sure to read the whole thing linked here...
A different way to look at it as compared to many of the other arguments so far.
Here is a preview... but please be sure to read the whole thing linked here...
There is very little value added, in my opinion, to attach labels to people who have an established set of beliefs and then collectively attacking everyone who has the same label but don't agree on specific issues.
A case in point, most of the city council members have identified themselves as Republicans but their votes often are aligned with the new Obama financial plan of "spreading the wealth."
We all should be asking if the mayor will be joining Governor Napolitano and asking the Congress for a bailout because we spent more than we earned and we can't break the habit. The financial problems we have are not owned by a political party, but by everyone who wants more than they can afford, and especially wants someone else to pay for it.
A different way to look at it as compared to many of the other arguments so far.
National Real Estate stuff...
Meh... Not much fun in dealing with these sorts of reports.
Here's a few blurbs from the first article... (both articles found on MarketWatch.com)
That's part of the headline to the article... wow... NAR is testing my will to remain a member quite a bit these days. First asking members to support the (now failing) bailout, and now running to a new president looking for a handout. Sad.
On to other bits...
Our local market is above the pace based on the latest reports from the last few months here at MOCO.
The local median price was the lowest in Kingman since July of 2004 according to the data I have been tracking (since 2004).
I'm just not in the mood for this.
The other article, linked here, is a wrap up from last month that the Case-Shiller group tracks.
Shouldn't be a shock.
Emphasis mine above as a reminder that we are located in between both bolded locations.
Here's a few blurbs from the first article... (both articles found on MarketWatch.com)
Realtors' group calls on Obama to adopt housing stimulus measures
That's part of the headline to the article... wow... NAR is testing my will to remain a member quite a bit these days. First asking members to support the (now failing) bailout, and now running to a new president looking for a handout. Sad.
On to other bits...
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, noted that the drop in October sales didn't breach the "gentle upward trend" in sales.
But he pointed out that much of the activity is now related to foreclosures.
Along these lines, the NAR estimates that 45% of all transactions are tied to properties in foreclosure.
Our local market is above the pace based on the latest reports from the last few months here at MOCO.
Meanwhile, the median sales prices fell 11.3% in the past year to $183,300, the October data showed. This marked the lowest sales price since March 2004.
The local median price was the lowest in Kingman since July of 2004 according to the data I have been tracking (since 2004).
(NAR Chief Economist Lawrence) Yun called on the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama to fund a $50 billion stimulus program for housing by lowering interest rates on new mortgages. Essentially, the government would pay points on new mortgages so buyers could qualify for lower rates.
In addition, the NAR would support direct purchases of long-term mortgages in the open market to bring down long-term mortgage rates, Yun said.
I'm just not in the mood for this.
The other article, linked here, is a wrap up from last month that the Case-Shiller group tracks.
Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities dropped 1.8% in September from the prior month, and they fell a record 17.4% on a year-over-year basis, according to the Case-Shiller home price index published Tuesday by Standard & Poor's.
Shouldn't be a shock.
Here's how prices in the 20 cities performed in the past year:
Phoenix, down 31.9%; Las Vegas, down 31.3%; Miami, down 28.4%; San Francisco, down 29.5%; Los Angeles, down 27.6%; San Diego, down 26.3%; Detroit, down 18.6%; Tampa, down 18.5%, Washington, down 17.2%; Minneapolis, down 14.4%; Chicago, down 10.1%; Seattle, down 9.8%; Atlanta, down 9.5%; Portland, down 8.6%; New York, down 7.3%; Cleveland, down 6.4%; Boston, down 5.7%; Denver, down 5.4%; Charlotte, down 3.5%; Dallas, down 2.7%.
Emphasis mine above as a reminder that we are located in between both bolded locations.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Indy Mac -- foreclosure fix
This was aired November 10th. The message is clear, if a person is having difficulty making their payments on any note but especially their mortgage it is important to contact the noteholder. In this interview the spokesperson from IndyMac said that 50% of the foreclosures are happening to people who they have tried to reach but for whatever reason they refuse to make any contact back.
Here is the interview:
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/indymacs-foreclosure-fix/2347526260
POSTED BY: YVONNE REIL
Here is the interview:
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/indymacs-foreclosure-fix/2347526260
POSTED BY: YVONNE REIL
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