Weather again...

Sorry, no pretty pictures. Just passing along the severe weather report in case you haven't heard...

NORTHWEST DESERTS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KINGMAN...GOLDEN VALLEY...
HUALAPAI RESERVATION...DOLAN SPRINGS...VALENTINE...WIKIEUP
1207 PM MST WED DEC 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM
THURSDAY TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY INCLUDING
THE TOWNS OF KINGMAN...VALENTINE...AND THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY.

SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AMOUNTS AT
LEAST BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP
WARM CLOTHING...AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Be careful out there. We are closing our office for the remainder of the day.

Well raise my rates...

Last Monday night City Council approved an increase in water and sewer rates.

Read more about that here.

Rate hikes shouldn't come as a surprise in our current economy. Somebody has to pay for the improvements that are needed to the system, and since the community has fought so gallantly against growth for the past couple of years... we certainly could not pass that cost on to anyone else but the current users. We are getting what we voted for. It is the price of thwarting new development and further prosperity.

A few bits from the article linked above...

The imposed changes are expected to jump the average residential monthly water bill from $21.24 to $26.08 and the average wastewater bill from $14.44 to $21.37.

It could have been worse I suppose. Probably means one less movie to see a month at the re-opened movie theater (later this week).

But here council responds to development issues...

Included in the new water rate is an extra $2 base-rate increase designed to produce extra revenue to cover the difference if Council decided next month not to raise the city's water and wastewater development investment fees, as recommended by an October study published by the Red Oak Consulting firm.

At a workshop meeting on Nov. 24, Finance Director Coral Loyd presented the study in which Red Oak recommends the city raise its water investment fee for the most common meter size from $1,200 to $3,370, with corresponding increases among larger meters.

Several council members were concerned that such an increase would drive off new development and fail to bring in any new revenues.

Well then maybe they should consider drastically reducing the current fees, since new development is practically a contradiction in terms at the moment. I mean, there isn't a line out the door down at the city to pull permits for new projects today. If the city wants to induce development to help pay for costs... some of something is better than all of nothing.

This goes for other items included on the development investment fees. The community risks nothing by lowering the fees, if indeed the fees in the first place are keeping builders and developers from even proposing projects at the moment. It is just basic economics.

Also...

Vice Mayor Janet Watson said raising rates was not something the Council wanted to do.

But it was necessary to increase revenues to maintain operation and maintenance costs, and to prove to the finance authority that the city could raise enough revenue to pay back the $35 million loan.

Again, the voters over the recent years are getting what they voted for. Increased cost burdens.

And...

Councilwoman Robin Gordon noted, however, that the infrastructure would have to be paid for whether new growth occurs or not. She said new growth, especially consistent growth, was not a guarantee in the current economic times, and that depending on income from development investment fees could be a recipe for disaster down the road.

Depending on income from development fees is a disaster right now.

"We're ensuring that we have the money to pay for the infrastructure, it doesn't matter if we have the growth or not," Gordon said. "We have no way of knowing how long this current economy's going to go on."

Yep, we don't know how long the current economy is going to go on for... but we could take steps to do something about it. Since we, the community, has to pay for infrastructure no matter what (she is right, there is no free lunch)... it is time to figure out a way to do that that uses our best assets (Interstate 40 for example) in a way that lessens the burdens. Most communities across this country are engaging in public/private partnerships. Let's at least start there to see if a solution can be found.

Local lender again updates rates...

Just an FYI from my email...

Hello, interest rates have dropped again! 4.500% on a 30 year fixed with one point! I cannot remember a time when rates were lower. Some restrictions apply, FICO score, LTV and etc. What a great time to buy a home or refinance. Don’t wait until it’s too late, they cannot stay this low for long.

This is for the people of the sun...

Of course the snow we are getting this morning in Kingman Arizona is not on par with the kinds of snow many other locations are getting, it is nice to see the stuff every other year or so. On my way to the office this morning I tried to get a few shots to share. These didn't come out like I wanted, and I didn't want to wait around for that elusive perfect shot. And as of 10:00am this morning peering out of my office window... still flurries flying. Enjoy.





UPDATE: Thought I'd share a few more in the 11:00am hour from my office. It is actually snowing harder now and there is even a winter storm warning in effect. Please, locals, be careful on the roads. I doubt the city has dispatched the salt trucks or plows (I doubt we have such things).



The Christmas tree lot across the way. Today only, free snow effect included with purchase!!

Oh... and my hockey league is canceled tonight in Havasu... sucks.

Interesting survey about foreclosures...

Here is a press release I found today from Trulia.com. The subject covers buyers feelings about the purchase of a foreclosed listing. More than 75% of the folks surveyed felt they should pay at least 25% less for a foreclosed home.

Also the appetite for buying a foreclosed home is dwindling, according to the release.

Is your browser your friend??

If you are using the browser that matches the icon above... I ask that you read this. (Hat tip Jim Duncan... Happy Birthday Jim)

The flaw in Microsoft's Internet Explorer could allow criminals to take control of people's computers and steal their passwords, internet experts say.

Now I'm no expert, but I have been avoiding the above browser as often as possible. I'm partial to Mozilla's Firefox.

Avoid 6 mistakes...

I am still catching up on reading and ran into the latest from Evan Fuchs of the Bullhead City Blog. It is an excellent read and I encourage you all to read the whole thing, but here is an excerpt...

3. “It’s going to be a buyer’s market for a long time”

This is a biggie. The mistake here is not whether or not you know when the market will balance out or shift to a seller’s market, but thinking that you should wait for it to do so. Is it going to be a buyer’s market for a long time? Who knows? Everyone has an opinion, but the fact is that it is a buyer’s market today. Do you want to be a buyer in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?

Again, there are six good bits of information to consider.

tick-tick-tick-tick-tick

Donna brought up the 60 Minutes piece from last night and I thought I'd share. Is interesting to note that at the end the interviewee indicates that there are bargains in the stock market now because the stock market has finally figured out the massive problems that got it into the mess it is in.


Watch CBS Videos Online

I'd love to hear from local lenders as to how many Alt A and Option ARM's were written locally after the wave of sub primes, in terms of percentages at the least. Sales in terms of units has been off drastically as compared to 2005 and according to the 60 Minutes piece, the Alt A and Option ARM's were more the rage in 2006 and 2007. Of course in those years, many new homes were sold that may not have been represented by Realtors and therefore appeared on the MLS and hence did not show up on my monthly reports.

If lenders won't chime in... feel free to add any guesses or provide any data that you may have.

Monday reading...

It is too long to post here, but I will ask that you click on the link and read the whole thing.

One of my favorite passages...

I’m willing to concede that I might look at the world through rose-colored glasses if you are willing to concede that my way of seeing the world is simply better. That, whether my way of tilting at the clouds of gloom may be in some way incorrect — according to some imaginary arbiter — nevertheless my way is the way that things get done. It’s always raining somewhere, but if you have time enough to care, you’re not working hard enough.

It's from Greg Swann at BloodhoungBlog.com.

Article to share...

On occasion I get asked to post an article. I feel that this is a good FYI so I am sharing...

by Jesse Herman
Mesothelioma Cancer Center

Asbestos Removal and Green Alternatives – Path to a Healthy Home

When remodeling, foreclosing or purchasing an older home, there are many things to consider in the real estate industry. Used for more than a century as a form of building insulation and piping, homes built before 1980 have the strong potential of containing asbestos.

With increasing awareness and technology, there are a variety of insulation alternatives and building materials which easily replace the need for asbestos. Potential and current homeowners should be aware that exposure to asbestos fibers becomes a health concern when high levels are inhaled over a long period of time.

Used in millions of homes, asbestos insulation can be a real problem for homeowners due to causing a variety of lung ailments, such as malignant mesothelioma and peritoneal mesothelioma. Recent studies indicate that over 2,000 to 3,000 cases are diagnosed every year in the United States alone. Workers and real estate’s-man all over the world are now receiving the proper indications and information towards the risks they face.

The United Nations Environmental Program states that the use of recycled building materials such as cotton fiber insulation can reduce energy use by 25 to 35 percent. The numbers continue to improve as more eco-friendly options become available. These kinds of figures have attracted those who were unaware of eco-friendly construction.

Asbestos removal in public facilities, homes and workplaces must be undertaken by a licensed asbestos abatement contractor if the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) are not violated. Once the removal is complete, green insulation options should be given serious consideration, such as: Cellulose, Cotton Fiber and Lcynene. These asbestos alternatives will not only reduce energy costs, but allow for a clean, healthy home, free of health damaging materials.

Thanks for sharing Jesse.

November Sales Report (2008)

Not the November to remember as you will see. Unit sales were down compared to last years paltry numbers ending a decent string of unit sale increases year over year. Couple that with one closed transaction over $500k to skew the average a bit, we will see the average sales price rise as compared to last month. I'll have more on that after the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings and sales in units chart:


I can't get over how symbiotic the two lines shown above seem to be. The last three months basically mirror each other, as one goes up -- so does the other. Keep in mind that these are two different sets of data. The blue line is new listings that appeared in the month, the red line represents closed transactions for the month. If the oversupply of inventory is ever to be corrected... these lines will have to intersect and actually switch places for a length of time.

Average listings and sales averages chart:

I mentioned the one large dollar transaction at the top of this post. If I take that unit out of the equation, the remaining units sold in November averaged $139,351 each. Prices are still falling, on average. Price your new listing accordingly.

2005 through 2008 unit sales chart:

And thus ends a nice little three month winning streak in terms of unit sales as compared to last year. 2008 will now likely end lower in total single family sales in units than was seen in 2007. In order to end the year higher, 50 units would need to close in December. Christmas miracles, anyone??

2005 through 2008 average price chart:

"Hello down there Light Blue line."

"Hello up there Orange, Yellow, and Pink lines," said the lonely Light Blue line.

"You look lonely down there Light Blue line."

"I won't be lonely down here next year," guessed the lonely Light Blue line.

Something like that.

The average price of closed sales fell 26% compared to sales recorded in November of 2007.

2005 through 2008 median price chart:

The median sales price for closed transactions is off by 31.5% as compared to November of 2007.

The price range of sales for November 2008 is $69,900 through $535,000.

Average SFR statistics:

The average home sold in November had 3.11 bedrooms, 2.2 bathrooms, a 2.2 car garage, included 1,648 square feet of living space, and was built in 1997. The average hold sold for an average of $91 per square foot of living space.

It took an average of 82 days of marketing to attract a buyer to come to an agreement and a total of 116 days from the first day of marketing to the close of escrow.

Sellers reduced price on average $19,006 to attract a buyer on average from the first day of marketing, and conceded and average of another $16,684 to the buyer in the transaction. The total average price concession for the homes sold in November was $35,690 (19.18% total reduction).

Bonus Charts:




Foreclosure Impact:

In terms of units sold, of the 36 sales reported for November -- 16 were listed as foreclosed on (44% of units sold).

The price range of foreclosed units sold for November was from $69,900 up to $176,200.

The average price of foreclosed units sold for November was $123,488 (17.9% lower than the overall November figure).

The median price of foreclosed units sold for November was $109,900.

The average foreclosure home sold in November had 3.06 bedrooms, 2.1 bathrooms, a 2.3 car garage, included 1,546 square feet of living space, and was built in 2001. The average home sold for $79 per square foot of living space. Owners of foreclosed on homes conceded 18% off the initial offering price.

Conclusions:

Traditional sellers actually out sold bank owned sellers in November. I also have noticed a plateau of sorts from the bank owned sales on pricing. This either means that the banks have reached their threshold of pain in this market, or another round of price reductions are coming. No matter which one, newly listed homes still hit the market priced too high for the current market so I suspect further reductions in price to lure more buyers.

Otherwise it is more of the same... can buyers afford to buy?? Can sellers afford to sell?? Only you can answer that question.

Lastly, the only other conclusion I have today is to wish you all a warm and friendly holiday season. My family celebrates Christmas, but I bid you good tidings however your family celebrates. No matter how we celebrate, it is the season to be of good cheer and a good neighbor.

See you back next month for the December wrap up and the year end report. Here is a quick preview... the average sale of a home in Kingman in 2008 will be at a lower level than it was in 2005 by a healthy amount. Yet the Kingman market will only see a little over 40% the amount of units sold compared to 2005.

Advice for present day home buyers...

Yeah, I said home buyers (I know you're out there).

The advice comes from the Arizona Real Estate Notebook, here's just a bit from that post...

Get pre-approved by your mortgage professional. While there are a lot of great deals out there, getting credit is becoming more difficult, and it’s taking longer and longer to complete a transaction.

Click and read the whole thing. It's not long.

"Our markets don't necessarily draw"

There's been plenty of bits about impending rate increases and perhaps even tax increases in the local news lately. I'll bet that our locality is not the only one engaging in such discussions at the present time.

Today in this article from the KDMiner.com about how the city is already tightening it's already tight belt, comes the following quote...

"The shopping venues we have in Kingman are more of the mainstream shopping opportunities," (Finance Director Coral) Loyd said. "People are able to meet their basic needs here ... (but) our markets don't necessarily draw, I would guess, a lot of out-of-town shoppers."

I'm not using the quote as an indictment on Ms. Loyd or anyone else at the city. But I do find it odd that the community has an interested party knocking at the door with a plan for a new shopping center, a huge Interstate cutting through the city with more than 5 million vehicles a year on it (not counting semi trucks), and an economy that leaves us talking businesses in jeopardy/people losing jobs/folks leaving town for hopefully greener pastures. We've also seen the city coordinate an effort to remind locals to shop local for their holiday shopping... even if it means heading outside the city limits to other 'out-of-town' locations within the county.

Yeah, no kidding... it is not adding up.

Not for nothing, but next year I hope we see wall to wall coverage of non stop public workshops, public hearings, and ongoing negotiations with any interested party looking to bring improvements to this community's situation.

I'll go out on a limb and say that the majority of the folks that live in Kingman won't rest easy with talk of increasing sales taxes. Surely the talk of bond measures won't put folks in a good mood on a grand scale. Adding a property tax to the mix will be a non starter.

So what is left??

How about beneficial development meets with the path of least resistance for a change?? Help the market by removing unnecessary obstacles that don't seem to be meeting their intended goals. Let others put their money where their mouth is. Some of something would be better than all of nothing.

While we're at it, let's get rid of the 168 acres of land that isn't doing anyone in the community a bit of good other than those that use it for a dump-site. Auction it off and let someone else come up with a vision since together... we have none for this property (where's the talk about the Kingman version of Central Park anyway?? As suspected, that talk was just a convenient political ruse) .

The 'nice' weather is just not enough of an attractant to bring people here. We just had a glorious fall season weather wise and I bet more people left town than located in Kingman. The money supply shrinks for many reasons, but none bigger than a net loss of people with a buck or two. And as Ms. Loyd correctly pointed out... this ain't no shopping destination. Kingman must find a way to bring money here given the situation we have voted ourselves into over the years.

But I digress...

I didn't vote for the man (The One)... but the words 'hope' and 'change' still resonate with me at this time I guess. Thanks for reading.

Also from the conference...

This image was used in a couple of presentations I attended. You may want to click on it for a larger view.

Planning for growth...

Last Friday I attended the 2008 Boards & Commissions Conference in Phoenix. The city of Kingman sent me there for the opportunity to help me get acquainted with my new appointment to the local Planning and Zoning Commission. The conference was put on by the Arizona Department of Commerce and it included four different sessions on various topics.

Of the sessions I attended, one thing stuck out as a prevailing subject... the expectation of growth throughout the state. (Well, I did attend one breakout session that had to do with Open Meeting Law and Conflict of Interest and growth wasn't really the subject there.)

Of course Arizona is a very diverse state and many communities are in various stages of development. Some of the subject matter was focused on transportation improvements via light rail solutions, something I seriously doubt that Kingman is planning on or is even applicable at this time. Some of the principles covered that would apply to Kingman though I felt were the following...

The encouragement of regional, community, and stakeholder collaboration. This one fits nicely with my overall outlook... calling on the community to come together to identify shared values and common vision for what we want the community to be and making the information accessible leads to greater public involvement and transparency. I think I even wrote a letter to editor some time ago on this subject matter. From that link...

On July 16, I spoke to City Council and briefly shared a vision where an inclusive group of community leaders could collaborate together to provide a list of solutions that would make the decision process a bit easier on the elected officials. The intention was to send a strong signal to the community that we all have a golden opportunity to make a real impact on the future of Kingman. By working together, we could create a friendly path to take that would already have the full support of all.

The next couple of principles could be combined the way I see it in our location... mixed land uses and the creation of walkable neighborhoods. One of the underlying themes to the overall theme of growth was the reduction of the dependence of automobiles for transportation (reduction, not elimination). I believe that new communities/developments in the city will most likely keep this in mind and lead to new kinds of demand for housing in our area. We will likely see such terms as healthier lifestyles, environmental concerns, and energy conversation get thrown around as Kingman continues to grow and develop. Supporting the implementation of mixed land uses and walkable neighborhoods will be key in this regard, if simple support is not enough then the city may want to consider some sort of incentives.

The above principles lead to the next principle in some manner, the creation of a good range of housing opportunities and choices. Housing needs are diverse, no doubt, and I don't have a feel at this time for how good the current choices are in meeting the demands that people have. At this time, it is mostly about affordability for most, given the current economy. Having a nice range of housing options near employment centers will be key going forward.

The next principle covered was fostering distinctive and attractive communities with a strong sense of place. Community characteristics are one driver of economic development. Communities with a strong sense of place must reflect the character and values of the people who live there. My question... are we achieving this in Kingman??

The last principle from the presentation I attended that I felt applied at this time to current events in Kingman is making development decisions predictable, fair, and cost effective. I'll just quote from the materials...

Development tends to follow the path of least resistance, so the development that is the most desirable should be the easiest to do. There should be as few barriers as possible to restoring historic buildings and creating infill development. Design and construction standards, review and approval processes and finance and fee strategies should be clear for all types of development. Uncertainty creates misunderstandings, aggravates disagreements, costs developers money and ultimately serves no one in the community.

To me, the above hits on many tones here in Kingman currently.

Lastly, one other term jumped out at me in the materials I collected... public/private partnerships.

It was an interesting conference and I was glad to be able to attend. I look forward to my appointment and the duties that come with it. I'm sure I have plenty of learning to do along the way.

Thanks again to the many that have called, emailed, or even stopped by to congratulate me.

Local lender says...

Got an email this morning from a local lender...

Hello, as of this morning I can do 4.875% on a 30 year fixed purchase!

Opportunities.

Crazy Headline of the Day...

MarketWatch.com has this today...

U.S. homes now undervalued, economists say

Link here.

Like many would be property owners out there right now... I'm not buying this either.

My last dance at WARDEX

** Warning, this post is more or less about a boring Realtor subject**

My time is up as a serving board director for the Western Arizona Realtor Data Exchange (WARDEX). We are having our annual shareholders meeting today and it marks my last official duty as a member of the Board of Directors.

As some may know, I have been serving as a volunteer for local and state Realtor Associations/Organizations since 2002 (where has THAT time gone??). During this time a new Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Organization was formed that combined three local Realtor Association's MLS's into one regional organization. This sort of collaboration of services is not new and our group didn't invent the wheel on the process. In fact, at some point in the future, there will likely be more collaborative efforts made with other organizations/services. Such is life in the Internet age.

Locally, I remember the first informal conversation about forming a regional MLS in 2004. I spoke with an Association leader from the Lake Havasu City Realtors Association and she made a remark about perhaps working towards that kind of goal. Again, it was an informal conversation and I didn't think it would necessarily lead anywhere (or maybe it was that I didn't want to make an effort at that time, whatever).

Later on, in the summer of 2005 as vice president of the Kingman/Golden Valley Association of Realtors, I attended a local 'Brokers Council' meeting. The subject was brought up by some of the brokers in attendance. I made a note and proceded to make a call or two to the other local Assoiations (the aformentioned Lake Havasu group and the Bullhead City/Mohave Valley Association).

Depending on how history views those moments, what came after was plenty of heavy lifting done by many volunteers that continues to this very day. Hopefully history will be kind.

Here is further reading on the subject as I had written about them before on this blog (here and here).

Somehow or another, a new organization was formed and a new service was unveiled. To say the road was well paved and easy to manuever on... would be lying. The founding members faced many obstacles then and there are still plenty of growing pains today.

I stayed on as a director from day one, was officially appointed to the board for a two year term thereafter... a term that expires basically today.

The overall effort is something that I am very proud to have been a part of. It was a fairly large undertaking made by many volunteers working towards the benefit of the whole of three different local Realtor Associations.

Most importantly for me were the friendships that were made through the entire experience. In some cases it was friendship through fire. Many times I wanted to bang the table with my shoe to get a point across. I lost more arguments than I could count (probably a good thing), but always in the end mutual respect found its way. I doubt that I'll know how much impact the experience has had on my life, career, or otherwise until some time passes and the dust clears (and my schedule opens up a little more).

For any WARDEX members that may stumble across this post, yeah -- I know -- things aren't perfect with the service or even the organization, but my time is up so the time -- now -- is yours. Hopefully you will be inclined to help make the organization better as time goes along. A little goes a long way. And if you can't help, that is okay -- just remember that the folks that are serving are doing so on a volunteer basis and do their best for for the whole.

I was going to post the names of the many that have helped over the years, but I worry that I will leave someone important out. So I'll simply say that I've enjoyed the spirit and the commraderie through it all.

For those that continue to serve, and those that are now coming on to fill the vacant seats, I wish you all good fortune and my gratitude for the time and service to all the members. May you continue with beneficial progress on a long and winding sojurn.

Did Nader win the election for president last month??

I only ask that because last month I posted this...

I'll go out on a limb and say the last dude on the list has as good of a chance to be appointed (to Kingman Planning and Zoning Commission) as Ralph Nader did to win the election for president of the United States a week ago.

Well this morning I received a phone call from P&Z Commission Member Allen Mossberg informing me that I was appointed to the Kingman Planning and Zoning Commission by the City Council. After checking my email this morning I find that MOCO commenter Loyd had left me a message of congratulations for the appointment. I didn't think that I would be considered after the last P&Z meeting when they made their recommendations and left me off that list.

Hey, I'm honored and humbled.

Edit:

I just watched the video of the meeting last night (linked here, it appears early in the meeting and they wrap up the appointments for P&Z within the first 10 minutes). I appreciate the kind words offered by Mayor Salem and the motion made by Council Member Deering.

November Listings Report (2008)

After a glorious holiday weekend spent with my Kingman family, after the tryptophan has worn off, after the surprising play of the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving night, it is time for the Listings Report here at MOCO Real.

Without further delay... the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings:

As of December 1, total listings available for single family residence equals 569 (down from 592 on November1). The total number of units that are listed as 'foreclosure' listings is 92. The rate of new listings taken per day in November was 2.8. Compared to last years total listings available on the market are down by 19.6%.

There were 84 new listings taken in November (down as compared to 100 in October). The total number of units listed as 'foreclosure' listings for November was 30. The average asking price for the new listings is $185,483 (down from last months $201,437). The median asking price is $129,000 (down from $151,900 previously). Newly listed units are down 16 units from last year and the average initial offering price dropped 22.6% as compared to November of 2007.

The average newly listed home in November has 3.08 bedrooms, 2.1 baths, a 2 car garage, with 1,650 square feet of living space and was built in 1992. The average asking price per square foot of living space is $112. Lastly, 11 of the new listings were actually re-listed either by the same or different broker. 4 units listed last month are already under contract and of those none had closed in November.

The original price of new listings last month was from $44,000 through $675,000.

Units under contract:

As of December 1 there are 62 total units under contract (down compared to the number of 75 last month). Of these, 29 were listed as 'foreclosure' sales.

38 units entered into contracts in the month of November (off from the 47 the previous month). Of these, 21 units were listed as 'foreclosure' sales. The average asking price for homes that received contracts was $130,848 (down from $164,844 last month) and the median asking price for November was $114,900 (down from the previous months $134,200 figure). Units entering contract are actually up from November of 2007 by 8 units and the average marketing price is down 33.5%.

The average home that went under contract in November has 3.1 bedrooms, 2 baths, a 1.77 car garage, with 1,468 square feet of living space, and was built in 1990. The average asking price per square foot of living space for listings that entered contract in November was $89. It was also priced $19,742 higher when it first was listed as compared to its current asking price (the average price reduction was $14,753 last month). The average marketing time to reach a contract was 99 days (from 125 last month).

The advertised price of units that entered contract was from $49,900 through $451,000.

Conclusions:

I typed the word down many times in comparison to last month and even last year in this report, but not all of those figures are down-ers... if you are a buyer. A couple of highlights to review...

The inventory number (listings available) has dropped a touch under 20% since last year at this time. Still... inventory is high, too high, but hopefully on the right road to recovery (the road is long though I must warn).

New listing average price is also down over 20% since last year. That means that sellers are entering the market more aggressively, like they should, but might still have some more to go. The good news here is that sellers are at least responding to the market. I'm certain that foreclosed listings have a large part to do with that.

More listings took a contract than the year before, even in this down year... which simply points to a more acceptable price for buyers.

Sellers continue to offer price incentives (discounts) in order to attract buyers. The average home that took a contract last month discounted nearly $20 grand from the time they entered market to the time they accepted a contract. The market is working.

We are in what is traditionally the slowest part of the year for sales. November, December, January, and into February we won't see record breaking production but hopefully we will see similar production as last year at these times. Perhaps establishing a bottom. Stay tuned for those results.

Foreclosures will continue to put pressure on prices as there were more of those listings available than in previous months. If you are selling, do the best you can by improving the condition of your home and price it accordingly as a premium offering. Condition, marketability, location, and of course fair market price will be your friend on your quest to sell.

Buyers... hey, I know you're out there... I don't know what to tell you in certain terms. If you are able to obtain an advantageous financing product and prospective homes are in the affordable range for you, then it may just be a great time to buy... for you. Only you can answer that. I simply do not know what will be available heading into next year with a new federal government taking control. I will do my best to bring you the latest information as it reveals itself.

I have my fingers crossed that next year will improve in terms of units sold, but I'm not placing any bets (especially on the Philly Eagles).

See you next month!!

You've heard of the CRA...

Investor's Business Daily has an editorial complete with their facts and myths for all to see linked here.

I'm not really trying to play the blame game, instead I'm looking more for solutions and at the end of the piece there is this...

The exotic securitizations that have gotten so much of the blame were a symptom, not the cause, of the crisis.

The architects of the crisis want to divert attention from their own culpability by blaming the markets rather than their own regulations mandating that banks make high-risk loans based on race.

In fact, regulations had almost everything to do with this mess. And instead of strengthening them to atone for the alleged "sins of capitalism," we should be abolishing them.

Two bills in the House would be a good place to start. HR 7264, which has nine co-sponsors, would repeal the CRA. And HR 7094, with 17 co-sponsors, would dissolve Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

During the last severe slump, President Reagan deregulated the economy, saying: "Government is not the solution to the problem; government is the problem." He's as right today as he was then.

Whoops... copying the above and agreeing with it is sorta letting my inner-Reagan shine through a bit much... oh well.

Happy Sunday!!

Some think that wind equals higher values and demand for land...

NY Times piece about what some land owners are doing in response to developers looking to purchase land in Wyoming.

Happy shopping day...

I know that today is called 'Black Friday' but to me that doesn't sound all that great this year. I realize the reference is for the prospects of merchants--retailers being in the 'black' for the year (you know, turning a profit).

But with the endless media reports of the next Great (I've never understood what was so 'Great' about it) Depression accumulating in my RSS feed readers and such, I've decided to call this day simply 'shopping' day. So enjoy yourselves out there, and be safe.

Also, the three local municipalities have launched a shop local campaign... click here to read all about it from MohaveBusiness.com.

I'm giving thanks...

It is the season after all. From the bottom of my heart, thank you so very much for stopping by on occasion to read MOCO Real.

I sincerely hope that you have time for friends and family this year, to share a hug with those that you love, to smile and laugh a little extra for this Thanksgiving holiday.

For me, I'm thankful that my home is full of cherished company for the long weekend. Our family tradition is changing somewhat this year due to the loss of a loved one who always found time to spoil us with her Thanksgiving feast. I might do some sort of live-blogging of my attempt at preparing both the turkey (already in the brine as I type) and the ham... could be good a few laughs.

Together we face serious challenges that we may not have seen before in our lives. It is always my intention to wish for good fortune for all and I continue to do just that for you. But the 'news' reports indicate that times may be restrictive to one degree or another. If there is a silver lining there, it might just be that we will truly appreciate the other things we have always been thankful for on this holiday. Only you know what those are, and I wish you all peace, prosperity, opportunity, health, and love.

Thank you readers, you make my day everyday. Happy Thanksgiving!!

An interesting attack on the so called 'impact fees'...

I was just emailed a heads up about a letter to the editor found in today's edition of the Miner online.

Here is a preview... but please be sure to read the whole thing linked here...

There is very little value added, in my opinion, to attach labels to people who have an established set of beliefs and then collectively attacking everyone who has the same label but don't agree on specific issues.

A case in point, most of the city council members have identified themselves as Republicans but their votes often are aligned with the new Obama financial plan of "spreading the wealth."

We all should be asking if the mayor will be joining Governor Napolitano and asking the Congress for a bailout because we spent more than we earned and we can't break the habit. The financial problems we have are not owned by a political party, but by everyone who wants more than they can afford, and especially wants someone else to pay for it.

A different way to look at it as compared to many of the other arguments so far.

National Real Estate stuff...

Meh... Not much fun in dealing with these sorts of reports.

Here's a few blurbs from the first article... (both articles found on MarketWatch.com)

Realtors' group calls on Obama to adopt housing stimulus measures

That's part of the headline to the article... wow... NAR is testing my will to remain a member quite a bit these days. First asking members to support the (now failing) bailout, and now running to a new president looking for a handout. Sad.

On to other bits...

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, noted that the drop in October sales didn't breach the "gentle upward trend" in sales.

But he pointed out that much of the activity is now related to foreclosures.

Along these lines, the NAR estimates that 45% of all transactions are tied to properties in foreclosure.

Our local market is above the pace based on the latest reports from the last few months here at MOCO.

Meanwhile, the median sales prices fell 11.3% in the past year to $183,300, the October data showed. This marked the lowest sales price since March 2004.

The local median price was the lowest in Kingman since July of 2004 according to the data I have been tracking (since 2004).

(NAR Chief Economist Lawrence) Yun called on the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama to fund a $50 billion stimulus program for housing by lowering interest rates on new mortgages. Essentially, the government would pay points on new mortgages so buyers could qualify for lower rates.

In addition, the NAR would support direct purchases of long-term mortgages in the open market to bring down long-term mortgage rates, Yun said.

I'm just not in the mood for this.

The other article, linked here, is a wrap up from last month that the Case-Shiller group tracks.

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities dropped 1.8% in September from the prior month, and they fell a record 17.4% on a year-over-year basis, according to the Case-Shiller home price index published Tuesday by Standard & Poor's.

Shouldn't be a shock.

Here's how prices in the 20 cities performed in the past year:

Phoenix, down 31.9%; Las Vegas, down 31.3%; Miami, down 28.4%; San Francisco, down 29.5%; Los Angeles, down 27.6%; San Diego, down 26.3%; Detroit, down 18.6%; Tampa, down 18.5%, Washington, down 17.2%; Minneapolis, down 14.4%; Chicago, down 10.1%; Seattle, down 9.8%; Atlanta, down 9.5%; Portland, down 8.6%; New York, down 7.3%; Cleveland, down 6.4%; Boston, down 5.7%; Denver, down 5.4%; Charlotte, down 3.5%; Dallas, down 2.7%.

Emphasis mine above as a reminder that we are located in between both bolded locations.

Indy Mac -- foreclosure fix

This was aired November 10th. The message is clear, if a person is having difficulty making their payments on any note but especially their mortgage it is important to contact the noteholder. In this interview the spokesperson from IndyMac said that 50% of the foreclosures are happening to people who they have tried to reach but for whatever reason they refuse to make any contact back.

Here is the interview:

http://video.aol.com/video-detail/indymacs-foreclosure-fix/2347526260

POSTED BY: YVONNE REIL

Letters to MOCO...

In keeping with my desire to post other opinions of reasonable issues, real estate related mostly... with a flash of local politics as well... another letter from a MOCO reader has appeared.

Without further ado, I'm passing this along from Michael Allison. Here is his take on an idea for what to do about foreclosures, banks, and vacant homes.

As you know, banks and other lending institutions own more real estate than ever before and they are just sitting on them. The longer they hold them the more the price goes down, until eventually an investor buys the property - rehabs it and resells it making a profit. Nothing wrong with that.

However, here is what I would like to see happen. Each bank that owns property opens a division in their bank that operates as an investor with a twist. Using fix and flip formulas, the bank picks houses with a lot of equity and very few issues to habitability and gets it ready for move-in. Then they hire a management company to get the unit sold on a lease to own contract. Management companies require nothing out of pocket. They only get paid from a portion of the rents. Now, the house that was just drawing money is now producing money. All of the costs to the bank will be pulled from the equity in the house on the final purchase price. Lease to own contracts are the least expensive and will put Americans back in houses. So, instead of the investors making all of the money, Joe the plumber ends up in a house with a little bit of equity and the banks no longer have property on their balance sheets making it difficult to lend money. At the end of the lease period, the bank provides a loan to the home owner. Which is how they make money in the first place. Everybody is a winner. I am a contractor and I want to help rehabbing these house so the economy can start moving again. Please contact me so we can worked this out.

I have been pushing this idea around for a couple of days now and I have heard that banks do not want to be in the real estate business. They don't like to allocate the resources to deal with delinquent mortgages and foreclosed properties. What they are effectively doing is pushing their head in the dirt hoping the problem will go away. If they let the properties go for 50% of value instead of the 80% they are holding out for, the properties would be flying of the shelf. Maybe you could help them realize that they are in the Real Estate and make them use some of the bail out money to get these house off their books by fixing them up and selling them.

Michael Allison

If you would like to contact Michael, please email me and I'll forward it on to him.

Thanks for the mail Michael, and readers please feel free to drop me something that you might want to share on subjects often covered on the MOCO blog.

As seen on the local interwebz...

I found this little bit on a message board in a long thread regarding the Rhodes Homes -- Pravada master planned community in Golden Valley. For three years a decision has been waited on to allow a utility company to provide water services for the long planned community.

The person that left the following post goes by the moniker The Magic Man, take what he posts for what it is worth to you, but I've always found the person as knowledgeable on local issues.

I was just contacted by the ACC. Here is what they said.

I am contacting you on behalf of Chairman Mike Gleason of the Arizona Corporation Commission ("ACC"). The approval for the Certificate of Convenience and Necessity ("CC&N") is awaiting the Recommended Opinion and Order ("ROO") from the Administrative Law Judge and for it to be presented before the Commissioners. After discussing this with the staff attorney we are anxious for this to be scheduled for the December 2008 Open Meeting. I agree with your concerns about economic growth in your area as well as the entire state.

If the ACC is at least moving on this... I take it as good news. If all goes well and approvals are handed out, it then rests on the developer as to when building starts and if the master planned development is successful. As it should be.

The 'more-on' impact fees...

Title in salute to an old TV show (as in the right on Dan Rowen and the more-on Dick Martin... feel free to look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls!).

Ah yes, back to local impact fees. Our friend Ric Swats has put together an interesting column complete with looks at Arizona Revised Statutes and even bits of the Kingman Municipal Code for good measure.

Read the entire column here at MohaveBusiness.com.

One bit from the column...

The third paragraph, quoted in its entirety, says “Development fees shall result in a beneficial use to the development.”

State law also requires specific accounting and proof of the benefit the development receives from the payment of the fees.

It would be very difficult to prove diverting traffic to Kingman Crossing will be of benefit to businesses at the three current I-40 exits. It would be very easy to prove that it is, in fact, detrimental. So impact fees from construction accessed by way of Stockton Hill Road and Andy Devine could not be used to fund Kingman Crossing or Rattlesnake Wash because there is no way to prove they are of benefit to the developers.

Council members repeatedly referred to impact fee money benefitting Kingman Crossing or Rattlesnake Wash at the meeting Monday.

That law is quite specific. Not only does the money have to be spent to the benefit of the particular development, it must be held in a specific account and the interest on the account must also go to the benefit of that development.

Councilwoman Robin Gordon spoke about the possibility of lawsuits if the fees are lowered. It is more likely that the impact fee money already collected, but not spent to the benefit of the development from which it was collected, becomes the subject of a lawsuit.

Now I must admit that I'm not an attorney (although I'd be happy to play one if I was on TV), so I'll leave it to you to do your own fact-checking. We'll see where this goes.

Here is the write up from the KDM edition from yesterday. Incredible comments appear below, including this one...

PLEASE TELL ME WHAT "REVENUE" YOU ARE TRYING TO PROTECT HERE!!! Have you looked out your windows lately and see the economic carnage???

Yep, read the whole thing. Verrry Eeen-ter-es-ting!

Letters to MOCO...

Got this one just a few minutes ago and wanted to share. It is from a local developer regarding the decision last night on the subject of so called 'impact' fees.

Open Letter to the People of Kingman:

I understand that the city counsel effectively killed any hope of reducing the impact fees that builders pay via new construction permits. As a developer myself, I am absolutely stunned and shocked at this council’s decision.

I believe that the NABA (Northern Arizona Building Association) presented valid arguments for reducing these fees. Was anyone on council listening? Basically, these “fees” are simply new “taxes” that make homes and buildings more expensive. It also drives business and development out into the county where the city will not receive any new sales tax revenue from these businesses.

And as a developer, I want the pubic to know that all new projects in Kingman already are required to provide substantial improvements such as streets, curbs, sewers, underground electric, water lines, curbs, water retention areas, and other important infrastructure that benefits the entire community. I also understand that these new homes provide additional burdens on the overall system such as the waste treatment plants, but these new home owners also contribute towards these plants via their water and sewer taxes moving forward.

However, there is a much greater concern that I have. This council decision sends out a very loud “anti-business” and “anti-growth” message to investors, businesses, and people thinking of coming to Kingman which is simply devastating to our town’s future.

This city and nation is in one of the worst economic times since the Great Depression, and our federal government is doing everything in its power to stabilize the economy and put our country back on a positive tract.

So, what do our leaders here in Kingman do in their infinite wisdom? They basically gave “the bird” to the main economic driver of Kingman (construction), and also sent out a very strong signal to businesses in general thinking of coming to Kingman…. “We are anti-business. We are anti-growth. And, we will make it as hard and expensive as possible for you to set up shop in our town.”

Thanks a lot city council!

Kenneth Herskind

Developer, La Costa Luxury Townhomes

Thank you Ken.

Readers... I'm happy to publish your thoughts as well on any reasonable subject, especially if you believe that the other media outlets won't publish them (they have their reasons). Feel free to send me what you have. More voices need to be heard on important issues that face our community.

Thinking of buying a foreclosure??

Well, Popular Mechanics has a decent write up on some points to look at with some added advice.

See the article linked here.

From the article an important piece of advice...

That's why everyone we talked to agreed on one definitive piece of advice for prospective foreclosure buyers: Hire a home inspector. With this litany of possible pitfalls, Lutzke said, you'd be crazy not to have an expert tell you exactly what shape the house is in. Staub tries to get any buyer he works with to schedule a home inspection; for the .01 percent who have resisted in the past, he said, he eventually just broke down and paid for it himself. "Absolutely, get a home inspector," he said. "It's worth the investment." Whether the same can be said for that bargain house remains to be seen.

No Change for Impact Fees

MohaveBusiness.com has the write up from last nights Kingman City Council meeting...

KINGMAN – Local builders were stunned and angered when the Kingman City Council decided not to give further consideration to lowering impact fees following a public hearing Monday night.

On Sept. 2, the Council voted 6-0 to initiate the process to consider reducing the Transportation Development Investment Fee by 50-percent. On Monday the Council voted 4-2 not to direct staff to research and draft an ordinance, effectively ending any hope builders had for a reduction of impact fees in the near future.

Read the whole thing linked here.

One other telling quote from the article...

Dr. Munawar Pavacha is building a 16,000-square foot medical building and is paying $120,000 in fees and permits. The $5.30 per square foot impact fees amount to $86,400.

“I wish I was never here,” Pavacha said. “Now I’m stuck.”

I hate seeing people say things like that... it is the second time in recent months that I have seen or heard a property owner say something like that. Not good for business.

As a town drowns in debt...

Found an article that was published last Monday in the NY Times and linked here.

A doom and gloom article like all the endless reports from the main stream press on housing these days. I wouldn't have posted it here except for the last quote in the article, copied below...

“My house is underwater, so I’m not doing too much impulse shopping or any renovation. But I’m not cutting back on this,” said Ray Lopez, a database administrator, as he placed a $24 petite sirah on the counter. “Life’s too short.”

See not all is bad in this economy... guns and spirits/booze will probably do alright (and lottery tickets). The housing article and quote remind me of a lyric...

In my dream I was drowning my sorrows
But my sorrows they learned to swim

--U2's End of the World

From the mail bag...

I'm talking the traditional mail, not email on this one.

Last week I received a newsletter from the Mohave County Landowners Association (no link and as far as I can tell, no web site). I am not a member of this association but I suspect I received the newsletter because I am a property owner in this county and this is an effort to create more association members.

I thought I'd share with the readers here some of MCLA's take on what is happening around these parts. I'll just share some bullet points and offer how to contact the association at the end if you are interested in getting this sort of information in your mail box.

From newsletter #68

From the heading 'MOVING FORWARD'

Despite all the bad news and problems on Wall Street and other national news, MCLA remains optimistic about the future of Mohave County. They talk about the strategic location between Phoenix and Las Vegas, the availability of relatively inexpensive land, and plentiful groundwater to foster commercial and residential development.

Also mentioned is the growing industrial park at the Kingman Airport and opportunity to expand the Interstae 40 Industrial Corridor. Goes on to say that hundreds of millions of dollars have been dedicated to upgrading the transportation routes in the area.

Now from the heading 'KINGMAN'

MCLA offers the opinion that Kingman has the best long-term development potential of the incorporated areas of Mohave County... due in large part the vast expanse of privately held undeveloped land and possible annexation of said land.

Mentioned is the construction of the new hospital in the Kingman Crossing area of Kingman. The hospital under construction had its 'topping off' celebration a couple of weeks ago. The new hospital hopes to start receiving patients in the fall of 2009.

This newsletter included a review on the special election that took place over a year ago in determining the present fate of 168 acres of land that is under the ownership of the city of Kingman near the proposed Kingman Crossing interchange. Included is a bit on the efforts of a slow or no-growth activist group... also known as my favorite local special interest political action committee group... also know as RAID... in that special election a year ago. Moving on...

Goes on to say that the landowners on the north side of I40 are still moving forward with plans of a regional shopping center AND an infrastructure improvement. Talks about a potential sales tax reimbursement agreement between the city and the developer/landowner, but concluded that this sort of agreement would be a hard sell.

Also describes a bit on another I40 infrastructure improvement slated to begin in 2013 with completion sometime in 2015... and that is just phase one of a two phase project. I've mentioned the Rattlesnake Wash interchange plenty of times here at MOCO and the MCLA assesment of the project is very similar.

A map was included in the newsletter focusing in on the more east side of Kingman and notes the proximity of some future projects.

I'll skip the stuff about Bullhead City and Lake Havasu and move on to the heading titled 'JOBS'...

First up is some information about the old North Star Steel plant under new ownership Nucor, and how it plans to invest $30 million dollars to upgrade the plant and actually reopen the middle of next year (2009).

Next is the new county jail that has started construction. Also the new Canyon Distribution Center nearing completion.

Under the heading 'HOOVER DAM BYPASS'

MCLA has indicated that a key element for the future growht of Mohave County will be the completion of the new bridge in late 2010. The go on to mention how it may impact the home construction market as mega developers anticipate future growth in the county once the project is completed. Also mentioned is the funding needed to widen the 15 mile approach to the Hoover Dam Bypass has been identified and bids have been sought for that project.

There's plenty of other good information included in the newsletter as well, for that you will have to contact the association to get a copy (and perhaps become a member). To contact the Mohave County Landowners Association, phone 800-441-2816 toll free -- or 753-3055 locally. You might also try email address HGause@aol.com.

BHC Blog takes a look at Homes vs. Stocks...

My pal, Evan Fuchs of the Bullhead City Blog, has a nice post worth reading. Linked here.

What is an FHA Short Refinance??

Paul Dunn has the answers here. Might be worth looking into as a way to avoid foreclosure.

FHA Short Refinance is when a home owner refinances a loan where they owe more on their mortgage than their current mortgage is worth. FHA Short Refinance applicants are upside down on their equity, and so they need an FHA Short Refinance. The only way to refinance the home for any reason, is if the current lender takes a “short pay” on the amount owed and writes it off as a loss, thus the FHA Short Refinance. It is basically the same as a short sale with the exception that the home owner keeps their home.

City Leaders share views on city finances...

A few elected city leaders were guests at the Mohave Republican Forum event last night and MohaveBusiness.com has an article covering... linked here. Please click on that and read the whole thing.

One quote from that article I wanted to share here...

One part of addressing income is that the three cities also agreed to a marketing program aimed at keeping more tax dollars in the region.

“We’ll roll out a campaign to shop locally. During this holiday season we’re asking people to shop locally,” (Council Member) Young said. “If you don’t find what you want here then shop Havasu, but keep it local because those tax dollars are so important.”

Interesting.

Also from the KDM today a preview to a short agenda for the P&Z meeting tonight, including this...

Nine other citizens also have applied to serve on the commission in the event the commissioners decide not to recommend reappointment of an incumbent. The applicants include former commissioners Mike Blair, Vance Miller and Scott McCoy, as well as newcomers Bill Delmar, Debra Sixta, Daniel Del Monaco, Ronald Tanner, Scot Kern and Todd Tarson.

I'll go out on a limb and say the last dude on the list has as good of a chance to be appointed as Ralph Nader did to win the election for president of the United States a week ago. (Hey... if you can't laugh at yourself...)

Welcome, Californians

According to this article, folks in California may be faced with huge increases in taxes (income or otherwise).

Home prices here are back down towards 2004 levels and rents are still very inexpensive. Sure could use some great new neighbors and we are only one state over. We also just passed a change to the Constitution that won't allow for taxes on property transfers.

Hope to see you soon!!

October Sales Report (2008)

Last month turned in a better than expected performance. More units were sold in October of 2008 than in each October the previous two years. Without details it may have seemed that it was a good month for sellers, however once again more than half the closed sales last month were sold by banks holding non performing assets.

I'll let the data speak for itself... after the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings and sales in units chart:

The spreads between new listings and closed sales continue to get slightly better and certainly better than it was last year. Still... not a fine time to be a seller in this market. However, more REO properties (foreclosures) are on their way to the new listings category, I doubt we see these lines cross next year (not a real prediction, just a feeling).

Average listings and sales averages chart:

The spread here really need to close from the listing side down because I don't see the closed sales average increasing as more and more bank owned properties hit the market next year.

2005 through 2008 unit sales chart:


As you can see, production numbers are up as compared to the last two years. If 86 more units sell in the remaining two months, production will be higher than it was last year. The last two years might have the look of a 'bottom' in terms of production... I certainly hope so (but not holding my breath). Even if it is though, sort of a hollow victory given that production has relied on the sale of bank owned properties, especially the last three months.

2005 through 2008 average price chart:

And clearly, the bank owned properties that sold are 're'-setting the prices (there will be a comparison later). It is still a supply and demand issue now, and will be so going forward.

The average price of closed sales fell 27.9% compared to sales recorded in October of 2007.

2005 through 2008 median price chart:

The median sales price for closed transactions is off by 26% as compared to October of 2007.

The price range of sales for October 2008 is $43,900 through $417,000.

Average SFR statistics:

The average home sold in October had 3.04 bedrooms, 2.14 bathrooms, a 1.79 car garage, included 1,581 square feet of living space, and was built in 1994. The average hold sold for an average of $90 per square foot of living space.

It took an average of 108 days of marketing to attract a buyer to come to an agreement and a total of 153 days from the first day of marketing to the close of escrow.

Sellers reduced price $20,423 to attract a buyer on average from the first day of marketing, and conceded another $8,232 to the buyer in the transaction. The total average price concession for the homes sold in October was $28,655 (16.78% total reduction).

Bonus Charts:




Foreclosure Impact:

In terms of units sold, of the 57 sales reported for October -- 29 were listed as foreclosed on (51% of units sold).

The price range of foreclosed units sold for October was from $43,900 up to $250,900.

The average price of foreclosed units sold for October was $112,989 (20.5% lower than the overall October figure).

The median price of foreclosed units sold for October was $107,500.

The average foreclosure home sold in October had 3.03 bedrooms, 2.17 bathrooms, a 1.62 car garage, included 1,487 square feet of living space, and was built in 1994. The average home sold for $76 per square foot of living space. Owners of foreclosed on homes conceded 13.9% off the initial offering price.

Conclusions:

Traditional sellers (I call them human sellers) averaged a sales price of $172,270 in October, or a price that was 52% higher than bank owned sellers. Traditional sellers received an average $102 dollars a square foot of living space compared to $76 dollars a square foot for bank owned sellers.

However, it also took traditional sellers more than twice the time to attract a buyer and close on their sale (68 days for a bank owned sale to attract a buyer and contract compared to 149 days for the traditional seller). More than three additional months of mortgage payments and other monthly costs associated with home ownership.

Bank owned properties are out producing traditional sellers and are using price to get it done. Traditional sellers with marketable property do not need to compete with bank owned properties on a dollar for dollar basis, however traditional sellers would be wise to out work other traditional sellers at this time. The work is not difficult, the price simply needs to be set to attract buyers... and buyers do exist... even in this market.

Until next time... happy selling (and buying!!)

Breaking the Cycle

I read other blogs about Real Estate. Mainly, I do so that I can keep up with what is going on in other markets besides Kingman/Golden Valley. That’s right; real estate is local just like Evan Fuchs wrote recently in an article called, Market Panic: A psychological phenomenon.” Which by the way is great!

While it is true the economy globally is behaving erratically, there is almost predictability to it all. An announcement made one day makes the market go up, the hype ends and the market goes back down. Simplistic, but true. The question is why and when will it end. The truth is, it will end. We don’t know when, but it will end. So what about now?

Well, there are some out there taking the plunge. What about those brave few who have purchased homes during the 'economic crisis' --I’ll tell you what—at least locally they have done remarkably well. These brave soles have been able to take advantage of some terrific deals.

Since October 1st to present in Kingman alone:
15 brave soles have bought a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home including a 2 car garage*.

These folks paid from $87,000 to $215,000 for their home. One of these fine folks, with the aid of a realtor, was able to negotiate a price of $59 a square foot for their house.

Evan Fuchs said in his blog:

One of these days some smart people are going to get sick and tired of watching and waiting and swimming against the current. Sometime just this side of exhausting themselves, they will act on the opportunity in this crisis while everyone else is still focusing on the danger.

I say, Congratulations to those of you who took advantage of this market and enjoy your new home.

*For simplicity sake, I asked for data on: 3 bed, 2 bath homes with a 2 car garage (stick built) in Kingman only, closed sales only, Oct 1 through Oct 30th only.