The market... as compared to national news

This morning there was a release of news related to the national real estate market. Read the full article here.

I'll do some side by side comparisons as compared to our local data and what it shows us.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Boosted by a record decline in prices, the U.S. housing market showed signs of stability in February, with sales of existing home rising modestly for the first time in seven months, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.

Resales of U.S. homes and condos rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million, ahead of the 4.85 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

It's the strongest sales pace since October. Sales are down 23.8% compared with a year ago.

Sales are down in the Kingman area 52% compared to a year ago. I've found that historically, our local market lags as compared to reports for larger market areas. If the west region of the country says one thing heading one direction... in Kingman our market seems to lag behind a month or so. We'll have to wait and see if this continues.

Also keep in mind that I don't do sales forecasting for the local market.

Inventories of unsold homes fell 3% to 4.03 million, representing a 9.6-month supply at the February sales pace. Inventories are not seasonally adjusted, but a decline from January to February is unusual.

Our local inventory fell 7% from the previous year. I'm not sure how much of the percentage drop is due to cancellations and/or expirations but likely that figure is a large part of the rate decrease (sales are incredibly weak after all).

At our local February sales pace, the figures indicate that we have over 31 months worth of inventory. This is probably not entirely a true indication of where we are at, it's awfully scary though that our inventory problem is as bleak as it is.

The median sales price plunged to $195,900, down 8.2% from a year earlier, the largest price decline recorded. Prices of single-family homes fell 8.7% in the past year, also the most since the records begin in 1968.

Our local median price decrease is at 17% to the bad as compared to the February 2007 data.

Since the credit crunch first hit in August, resales have been "stuck" in a narrow range around 5 million, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate agents' trade group.

Sales rose in three of four regions, with the West still lagging. Sales rose 11.3% in the Northeast, 2.5% in the Midwest and 2.1% in the South. Sales fell 1.1% in the West.

Median sales prices are down 13.4% in the West, largely because the market for jumbo loans above $417,000 remains frozen, Yun said.

Still correcting out here in these parts. Good to see at least other regions at least treading water favorably. Who knows when we stop sinking??

There will be a series of housing market reports coming out this week. I'm expecting a mixed bag of good news and bad news.

Update:

I found an early media reaction and commentary to the housing news shared earlier. Read the whole thing here.

Commentary: After much preaching about prices, home sellers get religion

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- You might be tempted to think that there was a remarkable resurrection in the housing market in February, given the news that existing-homes sales rose for the first time in seven months. But remember, Easter wasn't until March.

If there was an epiphany a month early, it came from home sellers who seem to have gotten the message that the way to move inventory in this dismal market is to beat the competition on price. The median price of existing homes sold in February dropped a record 8.2% from a year earlier, to $195,900.

Lo and behold, you drop prices and sales go up, nearly 3% for the month. That isn't what you'd call spectacular, especially given that sales are still down almost 24% year over year. But you can't expect miracles in a month like February, a short 29 days of generally dismal weather in most parts of the country when sales are usually sluggish as everyone gears up for spring.

Where have I heard things similar before??

The market may be poised to ascend, but there are still some pretty big stones that have to be rolled out of the way before any revival is more than fleeting:

* March traditionally kicks off the spring selling season, and a flood of inventory onto the market now could easily reverse February's gains.

* Prices are falling, making homes more affordable, but in many markets they are still wildly out of relation to buyers' ability to pay.

* Rates are affordable in the mortgage market, but only the most-creditworthy borrowers are getting the chance to obtain those rates; many marginal borrowers are still frozen out.

* The number of delinquencies and foreclosures is continuing to grow and will likely do so for several quarters yet, threatening to pour more inventory on the market and take more buyers out of it.

Even with February's numbers, the evidence that new life is being breathed into the housing market is scant. If you want to believe, you'll just have to take it on faith.

A tempered enthusiasm, and interest to see where the market goes from here.

Prayers...

Soon after I first moved to Kingman, my wife and I joined a bowling league together. This is where I first met Mike and Barb Blair. Immediately I felt befriended by the Blair's. My wife has known the Blair's for many, many more years than I have lived in Kingman.

Mike has served on the Kingman Planning & Zoning for quite some time and has recently resigned that position for family matters.

Last week, unfortunately, Mike's wife of over 30 years passed away after a long battle with illness.

I consider the Blair's friends of mine and I am saddened by this loss. Every time I saw Barb at places like the bowling alley, she insisted on a hug (and I'm not really the hugging kind of person). She always asked how I was doing and brought a smile to my face. The Blair's are very genuine and I'll always appreciate the friendly contribution they have made on my life.

God has eased her pain, but those left behind are feeling some from the loss. May God bless the Blair family at this time. Thank you Barb for all the smiles, laughs, and friendship.

Barbara Ann (Barb) Blair

Barbara Ann (Barb) Blair passed away peacefully on March 13, 2008. Barb was born in Denver on April 8, 1948.

She is survived by her husband of 30 plus years, Mike; their daughter, Lana and her husband Todd; and her pride and joy, grandsons, Caleb and Logan. She is also survived by her sister, Sharon and her husband Keith Gates, and their daughters, Jessica and Vanessa and their families; also all the relatives in Minnesota and all her friends in Kingman.

There will be a Celebration of Life from noon until 4 p.m. on Saturday, March 22, at the Kingman Elks Lodge, 900 Gates Ave.

Please, in lieu of flowers, if you would like to make a donation to the Kingman Cancer Care Unit, their address is Kingman Cancer Care, P.O. Box 3014, Kingman, AZ 86402.

Ah... What the heck...

The last post got me back into the political mindset so I figure... what's a couple of more posts with with a local political theme??

I'm going to make some comments off of an article that appeared on Monday in the KDM. Some may call it the sour grapes article since it covers the reactions from some candidates that didn't move on passed the primary election.

Article here.

Candidates reflect on losses, turnout

James Chilton
Miner Staff Writer

Bill Nugent pulled in just 23 percent of the votes cast in the mayoral race last week, and after the primary election, he described his defeat as a reflection of what the voters truly wanted.

"Not much to say other than I take the message loud and clear," Nugent said. "Status quo keep going."

In other words... 'Welcome to Kingman... just don't move here, bring jobs here, develop new opportunities here, or blink while driving through along the Interstate'.

Oh... was that too harsh??

Although he received endorsements from the real estate association, the homebuilders association and four of six votes from the Miner's Editorial Board, Nugent secured just 23 percent of the 4,331 votes cast in the mayoral race.

"I'm not bitter. I'm really not," he said. "In fact, I'm somewhat enthused that a thousand people believe in small government," he said of the 1,014 votes he did receive.

I doubt there will be a 'next time', but just in case... next time Bill, I hear having no agenda, buying hot dogs for people at the park, and an 'aw shucks' attitude speaks well to over 2,000 typical voters in Kingman.

Mr. Nugent could have campaigned quite a bit harder and I guess I was expecting him to do just that, but alas -- he did not. (Don't worry... I have criticisms for my own campaign as well.) It must be clear to see from the results... a strong voter education campaign must happen if we are ever going to see a different outcome in these elections for those people that voted for both Mr. Nugent and Ms. Gates. Growth scares the 'jeebus' out of the typical 60% of voters that have the needed votes right now, but it is not about them. It is about the extra thousand or so votes from voters that DON'T vote... but really need to in this community. It is really not that hard of a hill to climb.

Realtor and Council candidate Todd Tarson, who pulled in 18.45 percent of the vote, said intends to run again in two years if Salem, Gordon and the other incoming Council members fail to change what he too called "the status quo."

"I'm obviously disappointed in the results, but I'm not embarrassed," he said. "I'm pretty proud."

One thing I noticed throughout the coverage of the campaign was that I was referred to as 'Realtor and candidate'. Don't get me wrong, I love the pre-fix of Realtor and I have no issues with it. It's just that I never noticed anyone else getting tagged with such a job descriptor with the consistency that I did. Did you ever see 'Retired racing enthusiast and candidate Harley Pettit' with consistency in the Miner?? I didn't either. Again, not a big deal... just something I noticed.

I am proud of the of the votes that I tallied. I have received numerous calls and emails since the election results (just got another call as I was typing) sharing with me their disappointment that I didn't at least move on to the general election. I have been stopped by other fine folks at supermarkets, other stores, and at places where eating takes place that said they voted for me and were saddened by my results. I've even been contacted by voters that didn't vote for me but wanted to pass along well wishes and congratulations for having the guts to simply be part of the important election cycle. All of it humbles me, all of it makes me truly feel honored.

Tarson said he was happy to have shared the stage with his fellow candidates, and that the election had been a learning experience for him.

Now time for 'Todd Tarson... you are a lousy campaigner' comments.

I knew from the beginning that my success was predicated on one thing only. Additional voters that don't normally vote. I did a lousy job appealing to those potential voters in the numbers I needed for success.

If 'our' side really wants to make an impact in future elections, we all must reach out to the folks that are somehow registered to vote, but choose not to. We need to find out why they aren't voting and perhaps give them real reasons to lend their voice to this community.

Many people helped me acquire the necessary signatures needed to qualify my petition to run for council, however after that I took on the bulk of the campaign duties myself. It was my mistake to do so. Even though I had offers from many nice people (with plenty of great ideas) I chose to run my own campaign. I just didn't have the time I truly needed to dedicate to get more votes.

Like other candidates, I attended most of the forums that were offered by the different community groups. One thing that I noticed was at most events, the same faces were there as previous forums and overall the events were not that well attended. I know at the beginning the room at the Elk's Club was full of attendance. It doesn't take all that many people though to fill half that room. My best guess was that the candidates were speaking to about 60 to 100 people at any given forum. It is also my feeling that these folks could be counted on to vote (which is a good thing), but the messages were not getting out to the non-voting public.

The media coverage for the forums was spotty at best for the forums. While a few of the forums received front page attention, I never noticed any of the staff writers asking follow up questions of the candidates to clarify any positions. One exception, new staff writer for the Miner -- James Chilton -- did ask candidates follow up questions at the NABA (builders association) forum, but I never saw any reporting in the Miner of that event. (In fairness to Mr. Chilton... he told me that he had been on the job for a whole 2 hours before being sent over to cover that event, and in a later conversation he told me he had zero background on the issues important to Kingman and NABA... that he didn't know what Rattlesnake Wash was or the issues surrounding it. I bet he is a quick study though and will do just fine in his new position.)

I'll save my words about The Standard journalist, and RAID member, Marvin Robertson for perhaps another day... but I will say that I didn't appreciate his editorial comments attributed to the things I said at the forums. He doesn't need to speak for me, only write what I said. This is a person with I'm sure infinite wisdom on many things, but he didn't even do basic things like ask questions of this former candidate for clarification on issues that I brought up at various forum events before editorializing my comments.

It was my mistake to rely on the things I did during my candidacy, and mine only. Like I've said before though, this was an incredible learning experience. If the chance to run again does come about, I'll be campaigning much differently and more aggressively.

I will say that I thought that Robin Gordon ran an incredible campaign and I'm very proud of her. I may not agree with all of her issues going forward, but she must be commended for the fine campaign she ran that had obvious success.

Like Nugent, Tarson has his reservations about the mayor-elect regarding some of the things he's said about developers.

"He said some things during those (candidate forums) that I didn't challenge, like that 'wolves at the door' comment; they aren't wolves at the door, they're opportunities at the door," Tarson said. "If things don't get better soon in our economy when we have the opportunity to make it happen, it's going to fall on him."

Mayor Elect John Salem is a quality individual and I will never say otherwise. With that said, he is now a public official (just not officially until June). There were things about his (lack of) issues that I was not comfortable with during his campaign. He said he was against using tax money to pay for one proposed interchange along Interstate 40, but favored making room in the budget with our tax dollars to pay for a different proposed interchange... different standards for different people doesn't sound equitable. He did impress many people, therefore voters, though and I'm not arguing with the voters at all here.

I believed that this election was about the community and as a candidate, Mr. Salem offered me nothing in the way that spoke to improving the opportunities in the community. He wasn't my choice for mayor.

With that said, he will now be mayor and I will support him as best as I can... especially when he is actively leading the community towards more opportunity and prosperity for the 'regular' people here in Kingman that he says he identifies with. That does mean when he is leading the charge for a more growth oriented agenda, one that I'm sure he will see is the best for this struggling community at the present. I will support his efforts to make Kingman a competitive marketplace for new business, to bring new demand, improve infrastructure, and provide modern and accepted amenities familiar with 99% of other similar sized communities throughout the country.

I'd much rather be a friend of the new mayor and council, rather than a foe. I'd rather be a supporter instead of a detractor. This community needs all the support it can get. The task will be large, but if we elected the right people then we should all expect to see progress... not excuses.

If you click on the link for the article you will see some other comments from other former candidates. They are interesting, but I'm not going to review them here.

I wish the new Mayor and the soon to be newly elected Council nothing but the best and I hope that I can help garner support for important issues that would favor the community. They will deserve a fair opportunity to put Kingman back on a path for progress. Please join me in wishing them well.

Rentals...

Every once in awhile I like to offer some insights about the local rental housing market. Before I get to that, here is a pretty good article about the apartment building market.

Forget that American dream about the four-bedroom home on one acre with the white picket fence. That's the dream that people stretched too far for in the past few years, and you see what kind of trouble that got us into.

At the moment, the dream looks more like a two-bedroom apartment of 900 square feet with a security buzz-in. After years of playing second fiddle to the single-family sector as millions became homeowners for the first time, the multifamily housing market today is leading the band.

Please keep in mind that this content is from a national media source as you read.

I was given some information by a fellow Realtor that he was using in his efforts to bring such apartment building opportunities to our local area. His information stated that Kingman has a deficiency of these kinds of apartment complexes here. I don't know how his quest is going at the moment, but his information that he shared does not surprise me especially after seeing this article.

Mark Obrinksy, chief economist for the National Multi Housing Council in Washington, says that demand has increased for apartments, especially professionally managed apartments. He points out that the apartment industry, unlike its single-family counterpart, did not overbuild during the housing boom from 2002-2006 and so the increased demand today is leading to a pickup in construction.

"The long-term demographics are quite favorable for rental housing," Obrinksy said in a news release last week. "The nation's 75 million echo boomers are already entering the housing market, and most begin as renters. Strong immigration levels add even more demand."

In the short run, I don't know if Kingman is attracting 'echo boomers' or 'millennials' or 'Generation X's or Y's' (or whatever they're called) in great abundance to affect the current market. Our community would have to be offering jobs first and it is just not happening at the moment.

So while the rest of the country may be seeing more of this kind of building development, at the moment, we aren't. However, I'm sure that many sub-contractors and building suppliers here locally wouldn't mind a few of these types of projects to pop up sometime soon.

But if you're looking for some good housing news, multifamily is it today.

Well... I'm glad to see there is some good housing news in the national media at least.

Now onto some observations about our local rental market. When I build up the nerve... I'll sometimes risk life and limb, head out of my office and make a hard left, carefully peek into the office next door, and ask the property manager extrodinairre -- the lovely Helena -- about the state of the rental market.

I made it out safe and sound today, only getting a two thumbs down upon my request for information. Pretty much the same story that it has been for the last year or so.

Lot's of empty rentals waiting for tenants. Rents being driven down by the market forces. Tenants moving out (due to eviction or the promise of paying even less in rent somewhere else) leaving damages to property sometimes in the thousands of $$.

Should I wrap this back into politics for minute here?? Well I'm still afflicted with the political fever at the moment, so why not??

This is what Kingman is attracting at the moment. These are the results. Community stake holders are not moving here in decent numbers any longer. Those that are moving here for a long future in Kingman are being outnumbered by folks who will leave once again as rents rise... but for now the welcome mat is out for folks that really don't give a darn about the community or the property they dwell in.

The no-growthers should take notice. The longer you continue to attempt to thwart new development (that bring the prospects of jobs, opportunity, and amenities) the better the odds are that the folks thrashing property across town will be the only ones left to serve you. This is why a progression of growth opportunity needs to be explored at every turn. We must all work together to improve this community, not stagnate it. Your selfish reasons for limiting growth will only hurt you in the end.

New political poll on sidebar...

Now that I'm not in the race for council any longer I thought I'd put up a poll for you to cast your online vote. Please have fun with it. You can change your vote if you decide to if a candidate ends up not to your liking.

If the traditional media continues to hesitate to ask the difficult questions, I may reach out to the remaining candidates via email for a question and answer type of format and offer the results here at MOCO.

Feel free to give me some ideas on the tough questions you'd like to see the candidates answer in the comments.

Care about water resources??

Plan on attending the next Northwest Arizona Watershed Council meeting. More information below...

MEETING NOTICE

DATE AND TIME: WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19, 2008

3 PM TO 5:00 PM

LOCATION: 101 EAST BEALE, KINGMAN, ARIZONA (COOPERATIVE EXTENSION OFFICE)

AGENDA ITEMS:

1. Welcome and Introductions – Elno Roundy, Chairman
2. News from Arizona Department of Water Resources – John Fortune, ADWR
3. News from Mohave County – Kevin Davidson, Planner II, Planning and Zoning Department
4. News from City of Kingman – Dean Wolslagel
5. News from Cooperative Extension – Aline Parker
6. News from Bureau of Land Management – Paul Hobbs
7. Discussion on Developing a Water Fact Sheet for the Sacramento Aquifer – Elno Roundy
8. Drugs in our Water?? – Discussion – Earl Engelhardt
9. Watershed Council Website – Discussion – Denise Bensusan
10. Any other water topic – open discussion

So what now for MOCO??

This site has seen some changes in recent times. It did evolve into more than just a real estate related source of information. Local politics did dictate on many occasions while I was preparing to run for city council and while I ran for city council. It is probable that I will continue to offer the best information of the local real estate market and updated pertinent information on local issues that affect the economy and politics.

When the final general election is over, I'm going to ask a council member or two if they'd like to be a contributor on occasion here at this site. We'll see if there are any takers that would want to lend their insight on the local issues. At the very least, I will be making an effort to at least contact the council from time to time to do a question and answer article for the readers. The worst they can say is no.

Of course I will continue to offer relevant real estate related news as I find it, whether it be national news, statewide, or local.

And as always, I'm counting on you -- the readers here at MOCO -- to contribute as much as you can. If you want to pass along something that the good folks should know then please don't be bashful. Together we can make a difference. You have a voice here so use it.

For me personally, it is time to reorganize my office and tend to some other maintenance issues in my life. The phones are ringing a bit more for business related things, that is good. Hopefully it will continue.

Thanks again for stopping by and having a look. I'm here to serve.

Water for 40,000,000 people

I returned from my annual Arizona Association of Realtor's Winter Conference event. One big highlight of the conference was when the head of the Arizona Department of Water Resources -- Herb Guenther -- informed the attendees that there is adequacy of water resources in Arizona to sustain 40,000,000 people in our state.

Farwell to "The Wire"

For the last few years a TV show on HBO called 'The Wire' has run its course and came to a completion last Sunday night. While the show never had a popular following like others on that cable network (like The Soprano's and Sex in the City), it did receive a loyal cult following over the years.

I won't get into the all the specifics of the program but over the years the show documented an ongoing criminal investigation into the illegal narcotic trade on the streets of Baltimore Maryland. Once I became a fan of the show in the first season I read many articles saying the depiction of the investigation and the life on the streets was basically spot on with the reality of real life.

The Wire was a drama but it never seemed to be overly dramatic, it always seemed real to me. The writing and the vast array characters made the show. Sometimes the story line was so involved, so intricate, I had to thank the god of invention for creating the DVR just so I could skip back to watch a scene or two over and over again until it all made sense.

There were five seasons of the show in all. Each season brought something new to the story, a new element if you will. The first season was about cops and street thugs. Season two the story shifted a bit to labor union dock workers and some ties to the drug trade there. Season three welcomed in big city politics in the mix. Season four was the most heartbreaking of all, in my opinion, because a good portion of the story brought us into the classrooms of the public school system in the inner city. It tugged at the heart strings because if there is even a shred of accuracy depicted from that storyline, then something drastic needs to be done otherwise it is a shame and a sham to call the school system 'public'.

The kids the writers introduced to us were still in the school system, but the street life was beckoning and tragedy awaited a good portion of the characters.

They put the lid on season five last Sunday night but the new element introduced in that last season was newspaper reporting. I suppose that was fitting since the creator of the show used to be a reporter for the Baltimore Sun newspaper. The Sun went so far as to let the show use the actual name of the paper and, as I understand it, the property where the reporters work to do the filming.

Now I'm not going to bore you with my take on everything but I did find an interesting blog post the other day that covers the relationship of the paper media with what was depicted on the show. I think it summarizes things in a way that might say a few things about our own local paper media.

Here is the blog post from Extreme Mortman.

How fitting that in last night’s “Bonfire of the Vanities”-esque finale of David Simon’s “The Wire” on HBO, grizzled Baltimore Sun city editor Gus Haynes makes a reference to Tom Wolfe.

In Wolfe’s sprawling big city drama, the people on top — no matter how crooked or how lying, and no matter whether their stated purpose is to do the public good or harm — always finish on top. In “The Wire” conclusion, the ending appears upbeat — lots of smiling faces, lots of individual accomplishment, peppy music. But the folks who succeeded are, for the most part, crooks and liars.

The point was driven home — actually, bludgeoned home — by the Sun paper winning a coveted Pulitzer Prize, for essentially knowingly lying. David Simon has the paper winning an award for public service that they most certainly did not deserve. That comes after Haynes, in a newsroom rant, cites journalistic luminaries Jayson Blair and Stephen Glass.

The irony is that today, in real life, newspapers are being done in by the Internet, by bloggers. In Simon’s “Wire,” the Internet is acknowledged — but it’s not the reason for the newspaper’s black eye. It’s their own fault. It’s trampling on the truth, and disinterest in fact checking if it means missing a prize.

There’s an old media anecdote that reporters are told: Your mother says she loves you? Check it out. And there’s the oft-told line that a New Yorker fact checker once made a call to verify that the Empire State Building was, indeed, still there.

In last night’s “Wire,” all of that good public will that newspaper have fought long to build up came crashing down. Not through disgrace or firing, but through an award. Actually, a silly award.

Yes, Tom Wolfe deserves his shout-out. And old media deserves its Simoniz.

Aftermath

Early, early this morning I removed my campaign signs throughout town. Sleep wasn't easy with some feeling of disappointment from the results of the primary election. Of course I had hoped for a different outcome, but it was clear to see that my message did not get out to enough people.

I have zero regrets though about getting this involved and putting my name on the ballot. I did get to say some of the things I wanted to during the campaign in public, and in private conversations I said the rest of the things that needed to be said... but just not to enough voters.

I think the turnout was great, over 4,000 or about 25% of the registered voters and I was lucky enough to garner over 700 votes. I'm proud of that. I'm not going to argue the results of the voters, they let it be known what was on their mind. They liked who they liked.

Before the vote, I had been asked a few times if I didn't make it to the general election if I'd consider running again in two years. Right now it is too early to make that kind of decision. This election was fairly easy to be involved in for me because the housing market is slow, I have been in a volunteer mode on behalf of others for the last five years, and there were no incumbents in the race. Also there were obvious issues that I wanted to have a say in that will be coming up within the next two years.

For now I'm going to concentrate on improving my business (I even sold one of my listings on Monday so it wasn't all bad news this week). I'll likely be spending more time with my wife in Minnesota once it starts to warm up there (I hear the fishing is good in that part of the country). My mother-in-law was recently given some bad news health wise so I'll be helping out there as much as possible. My sister is expecting her second child later this week and since they live in Las Vegas now instead of Hawaii, I'll get to be more involved with my own family. And maybe, just maybe... I'll manage to get a round of golf in sometime in 2008. I'm sure I'm going to focus a bit more on 'Todd-time' for the time being.

For the 700 plus friendly voters that honored me with their vote... I'll be voting for Keith Walker and only Keith Walker in the general election. He is the only candidate remaining that proved to me that he'd give an opportunity to developers looking to front the costs for infrastructure needs of the community and explore a public/private partnership. Even though I consider him a 'good old boy' because of his close ties and friendships with that group, he did appear to be genuine when speaking on the issues that were the most important to me.

The newly elected mayor says he's an 'average guy' and ran on no agenda (according to this morning's paper)... well I do hope he realizes that many average folks around here are looking for work and other opportunities. It is no time be 'average'. The last two years of 'average' hasn't worked out for many families in Kingman. I know all too well his direct ties to the long time power brokers in Kingman and my guess is that the new mayor will do what they tell him before he answers to the 'average guy'... but I hope he proves me wrong. He is the candidate that said he would protect us all from the 'wolves at the door'... and for someone like me that doesn't equate progress with a pack of 'wolves' his comment is not very encouraging.

I'd like to offer my sincere best wishes to fellow candidate that also didn't move on to the general election, Allen Mossberg. He was a true gentleman and I thought he would have made a great council member. If he decides to run again and I don't, I'd probably like to help him next time.

To the many readers from across the world here at MOCO, my friends and family throughout the country that kept encouraging me, the local folks that voted for me, the local Realtor Association that financially backed my campaign with PAC money, and my incredible and beautiful wife Gail that was there for me every step of the way... I say to you all thank you. This has been a great experience in my life, one with no regrets.

Cheers Kingman.

I lost...

Congratulations to the winners, your new Kingman mayor is John Salem and one new Council Member is Robin Gordon.

I thank each of the 765 folks that voted for me this election season.

Maybe next time.

Election Day!!

February Sales Report (2008)

Production numbers fell again to a new low since I've been tracking this data in 2004. Average sales price tumbled below any number posted in 2006 and 2007, very soon it looks as if this number will align with 2005 numbers or even drop back down below that to 2004 levels. The only hope appears to be the stronger numbers of units under contract I reported on in the last two listing reports, here and here.

The charts will do most of the explaining, but first the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings and sales in units chart:

It has been a very long time that this chart symbolized a 'pretty picture' where there was some semblance of balance between new listings and sold production. The longer this picture looks the same, the longer the market will likely suffer.

Average listings and sales averages chart:

This chart remains a mess, but clearly states that buyer's can take their time to get the best deal... whenever they feel that may be.

2005 through 2008 unit sales chart:

Place your bets... will next months unit sales end up above the orange line representing weak 2007 numbers??

2005 through 2008 average price chart:

February's average sales price is lower than the average sales price we saw in July 2005, so pretty safe to say that the market is back to 2005 levels.

2005 through 2008 median price chart:

More of the same. The price range of successful closings in February was $98,900 on the low to $319,900 on the high.

Average SFR statistics:

The average home sold in February had 3 bedrooms, 1.9 bathrooms, a 2 car garage, included 1,593 square feet of living space, and was built in 1990. The average hold sold for an average of $111 per square foot of living space.

It took an average of 84 days of marketing to attract a buyer to come to an agreement and a total of 117 days from the first day of marketing to the close of escrow. These numbers are improved from the prior month as almost half of the closed listings received a contract within a month.

Sellers reduced price $13,820 to attract a buyer on average from the first day of marketing, and conceded another $7,970 to the buyer in the transaction. The total average price concession for the homes sold in February was $21,790. These figures also dropped quite a bit, but keep in mind that the original listing price for these listings was below $200,000 dollars for the first time in a long time. The previous 6 months original list price was between $217,000 and $249,000... there just wasn't as much room to drop prices to reflect the current sales threshold.

Bonus Charts:

Sales price per livable square foot continues a consistent slide.

Here you will see what I spoke about earlier. While the numbers look like they are coming down, nearly half the closed listings last month went under contract in less than a month. Probably meaning that nearly half were listed with an attractive list price from day one. If that continues then I suspect we will see these numbers improve.

Well, let me know what you think. There is plenty of data with plenty of trends identified. Tell me where all this goes next. I won't hold you to your predictions as there are many variables at play including; what is happening politically at the federal level, the state level, and even the local level. Some are saying the bottom of the market has appeared, while many more seem to indicate that we are in for an even rougher ride.

I am interested in the month of March for many reasons, it is my hope that we will see a new 'march' towards something better... both for the real estate market... and for better community leadership with the results of the local primary election.

See you next time.

No KDM endorsement for me...

I don't know if this is a bad thing... or a good thing.

Here are some of the views of the council candidates they are endorsing...

Address the format of City Council meetings: Move Call to the Public to the beginning of meetings and find a new venue to accommodate more people.

This is going to take all of two meetings to accomplish and I'm hearing the city is working with the county to make the County Building available for City Council meetings.

Spur economic development. Consider making economic development research a full-time job for Council members.

In other words, this candidate -- once elected -- will be asking for a raise.

Extend Louise to DW Ranch Road to lessen the burden on Stockton Hill until funding can be found for Rattlesnake Wash.

DW Ranch is about 9 miles away from Stockton Hill Road. Come on. How could this proposed solution do anything for the traffic on Stockton Hill?? This is not a solution at all. And the funding for Rattlesnake Wash?? Well a big chunk of that is supposed to be state funded, but the state is $1.7 BILLION in the hole right now with no money in the transportation funds... what if the state doesn't come through?? How long do we wait to find funding??

Hire a city manager and a city economic development manager.

I just find this laughable since the above is more of a no-brainer rather than a campaign agenda.

Well, I've said from the beginning that I felt it was more important to appeal to the community rather than the media for votes and support. I feel that I am getting support and votes. I'll know soon enough after the votes are counted.

I wish these candidates and the rest the best of luck on March 11th. I feel the candidates treated each other with respect and I am grateful for having the opportunity to meet all of them.

Please vote on March 11th, make your voice heard.

Community First

My observations about the upcoming election...

March 11th is almost here, just a few more days. This experience for my campaign is one that I have no regrets with. I'm extremely pleased to have decided to get this involved and run for office. Win, lose, or go on to the general election... the last few months worth of experience has been a pleasure.

I've met so many wonderful people that live in Kingman that I haven't before. We really do have a great community, one that I'm proud to be a part of. Each time that someone has told me that they are either voting for me on March 11th or has already early voted for me has been an honor and I'm very humbled by the many nice things that have been said about my candidacy.

Again, the following will be my observations on how things are going based on feedback from various people that I've had election discussions with. I know that I haven't talked to everyone, nor do I believe that I've even scratched all of the different sides of either the candidates themselves or the issues and how the voting public views all of it.

The mayoral race...

Wow. Very, very interesting. All three candidates seem to have large groups of supporters. I've had the opportunity to meet all of these candidates and listen to them speak at forums and have read the in depth and thorough editorial board reviews that appeared in the local KDM.

It has been somewhat enlightening, and even amusing at times, listening to the critics of each candidate. One candidate is described as a bully, one a failed mayor, and the other one a propped up candidate of the 'good old boy' class. In my opinion all of these criticisms are simple broad brush strokes against each candidate and for the most part, not entirely true.

I feel that all three candidates are running for office for the right reasons as each sees them, however they have different views on the issues. I'm more comfortable with two of the candidates and their views than the the other. The main reason for this is because I get the sense that the one candidate is pursuing a protectionist agenda and I don't see how that will benefit the community now or even into the future when this community needs to explore all potential opportunities starting now... not protect us from them.

Again, folks, this is my observation and opinion only... and I will not be making any endorsements for any current mayoral candidate in the primary.

The poll that I have been running on the right sidebar here at MOCO has been interesting to follow. With less than 200 votes though, I don't think it gives any clear indication of what the results will actually be come the night of March 11th. When I add up all the feedback from the people I have talked to during this campaign, neither my head or my heart is telling me what the results will look like. To me, this primary mayoral race is wide open.

The council race...

Obviously as a candidate in this primary race this will be a bit more difficult to write about. Hey, I make no bones about it, I want to win... this is why I decided to get in the race. I can't be as impartial as I've been about the mayor's race above.

Here is the question that I have been asked over and over for the past month... 'who else should I vote for??' I've been asked that about 20 times in the last week alone from folks that I know and some that I've never talked to before.

I have wondered if some of the people were just putting me on the spot, but I never really got that feeling that this is what was happening. It is obvious that there are some good choices among the nine candidates and decisions will be difficult for voters. All of us candidates have had the opportunity to speak at forums and attempt to convey our views of the important issues, but with so many candidates I know that it has had to be difficult for the audience of the forums to not think that many of us were answering the same questions in a very similar manner.

My answer to the folks that wanted to know who else to vote for was basically the same as the following...

I have been doing my best to speak to the issues that I think the community is asking for the most help on. Better planning, more infrastructure, more public conveniences, a path for more jobs and business opportunity, and to make Kingman more competitive environment to attract all of the above. I've tried to earn votes by speaking to those issues.

There are some campaign issues that I'm hearing too much of that do not speak to the community in my opinion. For instance, the majority of the people in Kingman really don't care where the 'call to the public' appears on the city council agenda... yet that issue gets brought up quite a bit in the forums. To me that is an easy issue to get out of the way. It would take all of a couple of council meetings to amend.

I simply do not think the 'call to the public' is as an important of an issue as say... jobs, amenities, and improved public services. And certainly the solution for the 'call to the public' is easy in comparison.

Voters have choices and one choice is simply to not vote for a candidate that is not speaking to your issues... or... contact the candidate that you want to know more information of on the issues that are most important to you. Make those candidates answer your questions before deciding.

Personally, I do like a few of the other candidates and some of their views. I won't reveal who those candidates are simply because at this time we are all competitors for the same seats on council. Until the last vote is counted I want to earn the votes of the voters, so I hope others understand that it doesn't do my candidacy any good to recommend other candidates for possible votes.

Lastly...

I've met my goals in this part of the campaign. I had the opportunity to speak to the issues that I feel the community wants resolutions on. I've stated my case.

Agree with me or not, now more than ever is the time to vote. Folks, normally we might see 3,500 voters show up and be counted... we must do better. We must have a better sample of the community... but that is squarely on you to deliver. I won't tell you how to vote, I have only hoped to earn your vote, but most of all I want you to vote. Voting gives you the right to be the boss and it is my belief that, if elected, the voters will be my boss.

Thank you, it continues to be an honor.

Community First

The New Target Store

Photo by Jeff Mangum - The Daily News

Link to article here.

It says it all.

Edit:

Mostly it says... this is not in Kingman.

Hey.. Home Buyer's...

I know I've spent the vast majority of the last two years appealing to sellers to consider the real and actual market prices when they decide to put their home or property on the market... well now I'm seeing someone (not affiliated with Realtors) speaking to you.

Read the whole thing here.

It may be the best time to buy a house in more than four years.

Home prices have dropped so quickly and so far that valuations - the difference between what a home should cost and its actual price - are the lowest they've been since 2004, according to a report.

The Cleveland-based bank National City Corp., together with financial analysis firm Global Insight, revealed Tuesday that more than 88% of the 330 housing markets surveyed showed price declines and improved affordability during the last three months of 2007.

"Housing valuations are almost back to long-term norms," said National City's chief economist, Richard DeKaser. He called current affordability "the best in the past four years."

But DeKaser cautioned that home prices could fall even further.

"This isn't to say home price declines are over," he said. "We could move below historic norms. By the end of 2008, housing markets could be broadly under valued."

I emphasized certain words in the above. It is interesting to read but in the end, you will make the decision.

Buyers, you still have time. The foreclosure market is still very active and will add to the supply or inventory problem that this current market faces. I don't see the supply going away, but I hope to see it at least stabilize throughout this calendar year.

While I am not telling you that now is the best time to buy, it does appear that many are gathering together ready to take the plunge. Many meaning buyers. The 'best' time to buy is subjective and nothing more.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Have you voted yet??

While the primary election will be held one week from today... don't forget that you can cast your vote today at the county building and avoid the lines or anything else your schedule throws your way next Tuesday.

I've had the honor an pleasure to hear from other voters in Kingman that they have already cast their ballot and voted for my candidacy.

Your vote counts.

Community First

February Listings Report (2008)

I think I just heard a faint... real faint... heartbeat. Let's see what you think after reading this listing report for last month.

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings:

Today total listings available for single family residence equals 632 (down just a bit from 638 on February 1). The rate of new listings taken per day in February was 3.24.

There were 94 new listings taken in February (back down as compared to 114 in January). The average asking price for the new listings is $211,721 (down from last months $224,010). The median asking price is $165,000 (also back down significantly from $199,000 previously).

The average newly listed home has 2.95 bedrooms, 2 baths, a 1.9 car garage, with 1,584 square feet of living space and was built in 1991. The average asking price per square foot of living space is $134. Lastly, 10 of the new listings were actually re-listed either by the same or different broker.

Units under contract:

As of today there are 102 total units under contract (nice improvement from the number of 77 last month).

46 units entered into contracts in the month of February (up as compared to 30 the previous month). The average asking price for homes that received contracts was $176,235 (up some from $164,668 last month) and the median asking price for February was $149,000 (the exact same the previous months $149,000 figure).

The average home that went under contract in February has 3.22 bedrooms, 2 baths, a 1.739 car garage, with 1,591 square feet of living space, and was built in 1992. The average asking price per square foot of living space for listings that entered contract this month is $111. It was also priced $20,308 higher when it first was listed as compared to its current asking price (the average price reduction was $14,558 last month). The average marketing time to reach a contract was 141 days (from 92 last month).

Conclusions:

It is encouraging to see the amount of homes that entered contract rise back up to the same number we saw in August of last year (with two less days in the month even). Looking back to the previous February though and we are still off by 2 units (with one more day this year). Also important to note is the average price of a listing that took a contract last year was priced $26,477 dollars higher than this years figure. So for sellers, it's a bit of good news and bad news.

The other thing that I see is that even though another 94 new listings hit the market, the overall number of listings is basically the same. This most likely means that wish-to-be sellers are dropping out of the market.

The increase of the number of units that took a contract in February has me hoping that there is some life left in this current market. I would love to see that number continue to build as we approach what normally is the best time of the year for home sales (spring and summer months).

Way too early to hang our hats on anything as of yet.

See ya next time... and don't forget to vote on March 11th. In fact... why wait?? Head on down to the county building and vote right now. If you can make time to do that you won't face the whatever your schedule throws at you on the 11th. Kingman needs your voice now more than ever!!

Not everybody has caught campaign fever...

I knew it was windy on Saturday night, but it couldn't have been windy enough to bend three 1/2 inch rebar posts connected to a political sign.

This photo was taken right at the entry/exit of the Walleck Ranch community, just off of Kino.


That is one of my signs on the lower left hand corner. I put it back up yesterday. You can't see it in the photo, but there is a nice dirty boot (or shoe) imprint on the back of the sign. Where is the CSI team when you need them??