Would you sign a waiver??

The meeting for the planning and zoning commission only has two agenda items on it this month. One of them though deals with the ordinance for SMALL WIND ENERGY SYSTEMS, or those rascally wind turbines that make the news every so often.

Here is a link to the news article that appears today for tomorrow nights meeting.

I thought I'd share some of my thoughts heading into this subject matter.

First off, the purpose of the ordinance should be to promote safety as it concerns the citizens of Kingman. I agree 100% with that notion as a commissioner on the panel. Lesser parts of the ordinance should allow for effective and efficient uses of alternative energy systems that do not infringe on safety concerns.

My main concern as a citizen of Kingman though are my property rights. I see an alternative energy system as a potential benefit to my property. I can get into specifics, but it is best to just leave what I just said alone. My views as a property owner are just as subjective as any one else that owns property and should simply be respected.

Yet other folks desire these alternative energy sources be used because they deem them to be friendly to the environment, or as a means to reduce global warming (it is snowing today BTW Mr. Gore), or just to feel good about whatever it is that an alternative energy source can make a person feel good. Others are fed up with utility rate hikes (completely understand) and, like the current president, feel compelled to fix the air temperature in their home to whatever temperature that makes them feel happy and without guilt that they are killing the planet. Perhaps a wind turbine and/or some solar powered system will allow it to happen and they are willing to take some risks to improve their wants/needs.

The last group that has an interest in alternative energy sources is the providers of products that offer such things. Folks that participate in the free enterprise system that helped make this country so great.

Now for this agenda item, the city has included materials in the work book that I have read and reviewed. The materials included information from other municipalities, counties, and states that have drafted ordinances that deal with small wind energy systems. Some interesting ideas and perhaps some possible solutions may come out of the session tomorrow night.

I am going to discuss in this blog post a possible solution for the city to consider. I will do my best to make it simple, but I don't do simple as well I would like.

Let's go to the well debated yet seemingly confusing issue of setbacks. As mentioned earlier, the main impetus of such an ordinance from the city should be public safety. What we are talking about is what if the tower somehow fell over??

It would suck to be hanging out in your living room watching TV one moment and then in the next find a wind turbine crashing down through your roof. I get that, it is a legitimate concern.

Likewise, if you kept your prize pure bred canine outside, you wouldn't want your neighbors wind turbine crashing down on Sparky's dog house while he slept peacefully. Maybe you don't have a critter, maybe you just don't want anything to disturb your garden or clothes line... fine. As a property owner you have certain rights to quiet enjoyment and security that a wind turbine falling over could compromise.

So simply, make the setbacks equal to the measure of height of the tower multiplied by a factor of 1.5 for any other structure on any other property surrounding the applicants property. So if an applicant wanted a 200 foot tower, it would have to be at least 300 feet away from any other dwelling on any other lot surrounding the applicants property. Now the 200 foot tower example is purposely extreme in this example.

And if surrounding property owners don't want a tower to fall on their prize garden, then perhaps make the setback equal to the measure of height of the tower multiplied by a factor of 1.1 or some other agreed to factor.

I know, I know... adopting this ordinance would eliminate a clear majority of property owners from obtaining a small wind energy system that may want one within the tiny confines of the city limits . We must keep in mind though that the city must do all it can in terms of safety. So if a property owner knew that he/she has enough space on the property according to the ordinance, they just go right on about getting the product or service they desire. No favoritism, no exceptions, no conditional use permits.

So you don't have enough land space on your property for the required radius conditions of the ordinance... are you out of luck?? Not necessarily.

As you know, I'm a big proponent of private property rights and it is from this perspective that I draw conclusions for many of my opinions. So I ask this question... if I wanted a small wind energy system for my property (all of 8,800 square feet) but a 45 foot tower would potentially collapse on either my property, my neighbor to the east, or my neighbor to the north east, or on a public street to the east... who can possibly be affected by the potential collapse?? The answer of course is all of the above, but no one else.

Now if I wanted to put the tower up in the north east part of my backyard, the street to the east is taken out of the equation. Follow me for a second. Now I approach my two very nice neighbors and tell them of my plans to install a small wind energy system and if they were to agree that it wouldn't be a problem to them for me to place the tower in the location I specified, why would anyone else care??

I'm talking about a waiver policy of course. Something that the local ordinance does not have at this time. The following is an example of part of a waiver policy...

As part of the Special Use Permit or Zoning Permit approval process, property owners may waive the setback requirements of Occupied Buildings on both the Subject Property and/or Adjacent Properties by signing a waiver that sets forth the applicable setback provisions and proposed changes. The written waiver shall notify applicable property owners of the setback required by this ordinance, describe how the proposed wind turbine and/or wind energy facility to not be setback as required by this ordinance. Any such waiver shall be signed by all affected property owners and be recorded in the Currituck County Registrat of Deeds Office. The waiver shall describe teh properties benefited and/or burdened, and advise aqll subsequent purchasers of any burdeneed property that waiver of setback shall run with the land and may forever burden the subject property.

Adding this sort of waiver puts the decision back into the hands of the property owners instead of only the governing body. If the safety concerns are those of other property owners, it is those folks that should address the concerns. It also takes care of potential future property owners with the recording of the waivers on the property deed. Disclose, disclose, disclose.

My property does not adhere to the current zoning ordinance because it is not a half-acre or larger. As a property owner, I believe, that I should have every opportunity to improve my property as I desire as long as it does not affect the property rights of my neighbors. If my neighbors agree to the setback waivers I should be able to proceed.

Of course there is no guarantee that your neighbor would play nice and allow you the opportunity to put up a small wind energy system on your property because your neighbor may have a different perception of what is safe and what isn't in terms of a tall tower in the backyard. There are a couple of current city council members that have already stated at a public meeting that they wouldn't want their neighbors to have such monstrosities near their property... and that is their right as property owners. No one would force them to sign waivers (if the neighbor applicant didn't have enough land space to adhere to the ordinance).

I think a waiver policy is a must in order for the overall ordinance to work properly.

If the city settles on a policy where if a tower was to collapse only on the applicants property only, then permits should be issued for proper installment of a small wind energy system.

If your property does not adhere to the city ordinance but you have neighboring property owners that are possibly affected by the placement of the small wind energy system but are willing to grant you notarized recorded authorization for installation, you should be able to obtain the permit needed to move forward.

It seems as fair and equitable as possible. Protecting property rights must be a focus in our community.

I look forward to tomorrow's meeting, I might even bring some of this up for discussion purpose. Come on down and join that discussion. See ya there!!

Weekend reading...

There's been plenty of talk and writing on the causes of the financial mess we seem to be in right now nationally. Because I'm in the housing business I am often intrigued to read and follow up on such articles, blog posts, and other forms of media.

Today I found this article and it is a very telling and complete look at the origins of the problems we face today. It is a long article but one full of facts and figures. I hope you will give it a chance.

Enjoy your weekend.

Here is a snippet...

In 1995, the regulators created new rules that sought to establish objective criteria for determining whether a bank was meeting CRA standards. Examiners no longer had the discretion they once had. For banks, simply proving that they were looking for qualified buyers wasn’t enough. Banks now had to show that they had actually made a requisite number of loans to low- and moderate-income (LMI) borrowers. The new regulations also required the use of “innovative or flexible” lending practices to address credit needs of LMI borrowers and neighborhoods. Thus, a law that was originally intended to encourage banks to use safe and sound practices in lending now required them to be “innovative” and “flexible.” In other words, it called for the relaxation of lending standards, and it was the bank regulators who were expected to enforce these relaxed standards.

Classic rewind...

You know what this country is missing?? Do you know what this country really needs??

Rhetorical questions both, but amazingly we have one of the GSE's making news again by stating they will be loosening rules and standards for homeowners wishing to refinance.

More here...

Fannie Mae will drop some credit-score requirements, reduce income-documentation standards and waive the need for appraisals in some cases, according to a notice yesterday to lenders posted on the Washington-based company’s Web site. The changes apply to loans that the company owns or guarantees.

The loosening of standards, many say, led us all to the housing market we have today. There is another time and place for that never ending argument. I may have some of my own reservations on such practices... but if you are a homeowner with FannieMae or FreddieMac financing and need to lower payments, you will want to read the entire article I linked to above.

'Shop Here!'

The city of Kingman includes a 'news and notes' document along with the monthly water bill. Actually, I'm not sure if the newsletter comes with every water bill or not, I rarely notice it if it does.

This month though for some unknown reason I gave it a glance. I noticed the ongoing promotion of the 'Shop Here!' program that came about heading into the holiday season last year. Now, I'm not a proponent or an opponent of what the city is doing with this. I fulfill my shopping needs locally as best as I can and for the most part I get by just fine. There are occasions though where the shopping experience in Kingman is lacking so I'll head out of the area to spend a few hours in another community that offers more. So in essence the 'Shop Here!' program neither compels me any more or any less based on my wants and/or needs. I suspect that is true for most.

This months newsletter has many program points included on the 'Shop Here!' promotion and there is more than a few blog posts that I could start a discussion on, but for now I'm only going to take on one. I may revisit the newsletter for more later on.

Here is the one I that caught my eye today...

Local retail adds $6M in sales tax revenue to the City budget. If Kingman has a 30% yearly leakage in sales, the City loses $2M in revenue and local businesses lose $200M in sales. That same lost revenue could be allocated to projects like Kingman Crossing and more retail.

I'm sure you can see why this captured my interest.

One could research the actual budget and revenue figures all day if they'd like to present a more accurate view of reality, however I'm just going to use the above program point.

First off the above identifies the problem or concern about sales leakage, the lost $2 million dollars. I can buy the 30% leakage factor in my own case, it is about right. I probably spend 30% of my shopping dollars in other communities. So a problem is identified and a goal is established to close that leakage gap, perhaps to use funds for future projects or simply to maintain city services. The program point speaks directly to adding more retail as a way to close the gap. Using Kingman Crossing though twists the logic to some degree, but the above is merely a sound byte... a talking point... a program point.

But...

Since Kingman Crossing was brought up, lets use that to see if there is a solution to close that gap of $2 million dollars in lost revenue due to leakage.

So what do we know about this Kingman Crossing thingy anyway?? First we do know that landowners and developers have desired to improve the infrastructure along the Interstate by having an interchange built that would allow for easy access to and from the land via the Interstate in order to attract retail and other business interests. We know that in 2005 a proposal was made to the city that had a series of developers paying for the infrastructure needed to accomplish the easy access aspect, but this proposal never made it anywhere.

After the city rejected the proposal made in 2005, the private land on the north side of the Interstate in the area was sold to different party that also had plans to develop a commercial retail area (retail?? you mean a potential for additional sales tax receipts?? Hmmm...). The new (and still current) landowners and developers also wanted easy access to traffic flows on the Interstate but haven't said that they would pay for the infrastructure needed for that easy access stuff.

However, they did make some intimations that they might be willing to enter into a public/private partnership with the city as a possible solution to the infrastructure need, but to my knowledge no details were ever given or debated to the possible solution.

And that folks, is all we know as it stands at the moment. Sure we could delve into other things that muddy up the waters, the politics involved here might make a decent book (or a comedy routine)... but I'll save all that for another time. So let's get back to the issue at hand... the leakage and lost revenues. To do that though, we have to make some assumptions from this point out.

It is no secret, I am intrigued by the concept of public/private partnerships as I think they offer fair solutions to communities all over the world (they are being used all over the world). In this case the current landowners and developers have made a series of these partnerships with communities right here in the state of Arizona. In the last year I have spoken with city officials and residents of communities where such agreements have recently been made. Based on those conversations I feel I can play out a scenario to see if it could combat the issue of leakage and lost revenue.

In my view, a successful public/private partnership means shifting a great deal of risk onto the private side of the agreement. How much risk is determined by the final agreement, but it needs to be at least half the risk (IMO) and certainly could be more. For an example concerning risk, if the citizens of Kingman had to fund an infrastructure project 100% via a bond or a tax increase then the citizens would be on the hook for the entire cost and risk. In this current economy that would be a stupid decision, and one I would not support as it leaves all of us with ALL of the risk.

From here on out I'll refer to the term public/private partnership as a PPP.

Based on other PPP's this is how the concept could work in Kingman.

First, the private party agrees to fully fund the infrastructure project, in this case we are talking about an interchange offering access to and from the Interstate as well as an alternative crossing from one side of Kingman to the other. There have been many different dollar amounts attributed to this infrastructure project in the past, for this example I will use a round about number of $30 million dollars.

While the private party seems to be nice enough to front the cost, they aren't buying everyone a free lunch... they will want that money back. So how might that happen??

Like other PPP's, the private party is willing to take repayment in installments... okay but at this point the risk is still on the citizens of Kingman. So how do we shift the risk??

Well the city simply agrees to make annual payment to the private party out of a portion of the sales tax dollars that are generated at their development. For this we'll just use a 50-50 split of those sales tax receipts. Okay, the risk has started to shift but has it gone far enough?? Probably not.

So now the city and the private party agree that these installment payments, from the sale tax receipts generated at their development, will only happen for a certain period of time. For this we'll use a term of 20 years. So is this enough risk?? Well, lets take a look at the numbers.

The infrastructure project costs $30 million dollars and now the developer has 20 years to recoup that outlay of funds. So if we divide the $30 million dollars by 20 installments, it would mean that they must generate $1.5 million dollars a year in installment payments. I'd say yes, the risk is more on their side now than it would be on the citizen of Kingman.

Let's also not forget one other thing... if the developer is recouping 50% of the tax dollars generated at the development, it means the city is also putting $1.5 million dollars in the treasury every year. Clearly closing the gap caused by leakage. (at this moment, zero dollars are being contributed to the treasury from that property)

Shop local you say??

Clearly this sort of PPP is a performance risk squarely on the developer. No citizen of Kingman is compelled to risk any of his or her dollars towards the project, ever. Surely there won't be a law that forces anyone to actually shop at the development and therefore generate sales tax dollars. If the developer can't appease your shopping tastes (or entertainment and maybe dining pleasures that require exchange of fundage), then you won't be a patron at the development... yet you still could use the Interstate access or even just get from one side of town to the other on the infrastructure they built at no charge.

There are other possible benefits I haven't touched on either. On the south side of the Interstate directly across from this proposed commercial development is 168 acres of land. The interchange would increase the value of that land... cool for the owners of that land. Just who owns that asset anyway?? Oh yeah, the City of Kingman. Just south of city owned parcel sits a section of land owned by the state of Arizona that has yet to be developed. My guess is that land would also end up with a higher value than the value it has currently. The future sale of that land would help fund education in the state.

I realize the above scenario that I've painted is just one persons view, but it was based on information shared with me by online resources and conversations with citizens and elected officials in other communities that have entered PPP's with developers. I also realize that what I shared was a rather simple example.

There will be a gazillion details likely to hammer out to reach an agreement that could offer the basic fundamentals of this sort of PPP. That is what lawyers are for, and elected officials, and without a doubt -- public input.

A PPP similar to the scenario I outlined was even approved by voters in an election, so yes the public must play a vital role.

And yes, there is always the politics to be worked out but I'm only a 'wannabe' politician so I'll leave it to the pro's. There obviously could be other competing solutions that appear that may even offer the community something better while addressing the need to 'Shop Here!'. I'm all ears and not playing favorites. Whoever can get it done without sticking it to the citizens of Kingman is good in my book.

Reading this newsletter that came along with my water bill, the city is telling me they have a concern with me spending money outside the cozy confines of the city limits. That city services could be threatened and maybe even the quality of life offered by Kingman. I don't want that so I'll do the best I can... and while I make some adjustments I hope the city does all it can to find a solution to the problem they face. The leakage is NOT my problem. City revenues based on sales tax receipts is NOT my problem. The fact that I have always seen another person from Kingman when shopping at the Target in Bullhead City is NOT my problem.

I'll loosely paraphrase the following and substitute characters from a favorite movie of mine...

Todd: I told my wife I wouldn't drink tonight. Besides, I got a big day tomorrow. You guys have a great time.

Kingman City Council Member: A big day? Doing what?

Todd: Well, um, actually a pretty nice little Saturday, we're going to go to Lowe's in Bullhead City. Yeah, buy some wallpaper, maybe get some flooring, stuff like that. Unfortunately we didn't like what Home Depot in Kingman had to choose from. Then Maybe Bed, Bath, & Beyond, Sam's Club, and Target, I don't know, I don't know if we'll have enough time.

If I knew that within a couple of years that it could be possible to pull this off above right here in Kingman... I might delay that wallpaper and flooring purchase.

For today though, at least I paid my water bill.

Because all economies have issues...

Whatafiasco

I mentioned the following in a post last week...

As an aside, come Monday there will be one less place open for business to collect sales tax dollars from in Kingman.

I was referencing this. How many more jobs will be lost?? How many more places of business where local tax dollars are collected will we lose??

I know many will criticize the dick-move of the corporate types that dropped the hammer on the employees with no notice, and rightfully so, but this happening is just a small part of the big picture.

The message within the message...

From this article reporting on this mornings stock market activity come this bit from the National Association of Realtors...

Markets got off to a sluggish start but investors waded in tentatively after the National Association of Realtors reported a 6.3% rise in its gauge of pending home sales in December. Lower prices are drawing in buyers, the trade group said. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, observed that the "biggest gains were in areas with the biggest improvements in affordability."

Now frankly, this isn't about the stock market or any reports offered by the NAR. There are plenty of critics of the NAR, whoever holds the title of chief economist for NAR, and basically anyone that is a member of the NAR, but the quote itself is telling.

Key words that I emphasized above are words that have appeared many times right here on this blog speaking directly to this local market.

And no, I don't point out the above for vindication -- not my style. However, for all the talk of how to 'fix' the real estate markets... the answer has been crystal clear from day of the panic. Let the market work itself out.

By no means does any of this mean that the worst is behind us and that we will avoid catastrophe as there is still plenty of dust to clear. Locally we need to focus on promoting growth that will lead to putting people back to work and improving prospects for business. The sooner that happens, the sooner we will actually see a price bottom. We can't just rely on things that may or may not happen five or more years down the road, unless we simply can all afford to hang on that long.

Liveblogging the council meeting (sorta)

Decided to open a blog post while watching the live link to the city council meeting.

Tuned in a bit late, but in time to see the council pass approval to enter an intergovernmental agreement with ADOT to begin acquisition of right-of-ways in the area of the proposed Rattlesnake Wash traffic interchange.

Council just turned down the Fripps Ranch request to rezone the property on Southern Avenue. This has turned out to be a pretty contentious item. While this issue and debate means very little to me personally since I live on the other side of town and not affected one way or the other, there is something that is bothering me and this issue is just a microcosm of the whole thing.

The concept of private property rights, in Kingman, is basically dead... if you are the property owner. John Locke is turning over in his grave.

The next few items move along with not much fanfare.

Next up the conditional use permit for a personal use wind turbine. Approved unanimously.

Last item up now... the city desires to buy an old building downtown with the intention of using it as a larger council chambers for city meetings. I was reading comments earlier about how this issue was just another one of those 'back room deals'. I figured that we might see watchdog groups come out against such a move, perhaps a couple of citizens coming unglued, for old times sake. Nothing of the sort materialized.

Council approved the purchase of the property listed on the agenda as 429 East Beale. Not a one person spoke up against it as a back room deal.

The second quarter financial report was given... things seem to be in line along the budget.

No...

Enough with the nanny state bull-crap. I know for a fact that accidents happened on the roads and freeways of this state before the invention of the cell phone ever occurred.

Personally, I don't care if you talk on the phone, fix your lipstick, chow down on a cheeseburger, adjust the radio, read a book, or whatever when you are behind the wheel. I just ask that you be responsible for your actions, nothing more -- nothing less. It is the same thing I offer the other motorists on the roads as a bare minimum. Accidents happen for many reasons, sometimes for no reason at all other than the occurrence of an accidental happenstance.

Maybe the government should outlaw accidents, instead of going after silly things like this.

The cell phone ban itself is not what bugs me. I might use my phone for about 1% of the total driving time I'm in my vehicle. If this is passed into law, it won't have a dramatic affect on my life... but I am troubled about the threats to my liberty. Enough is enough.

Helluva game!!

Some thoughts...

I actually think the Cardinals carried the play for most of the game. In my eyes, the better team.

The football bounces in funny ways... a play here... a play there... perhaps a play without a penalty flag (for a change) -- the outcome would have been more fitting.

Congrats to the Steeler's, hats off and a deserving win in one of the best games I've seen with the title on the line.

The big game has been living up to the hype in many of the recent years.

Cardinals fans... savor this even though it was not a win. What a great season, surprising in many ways. They have nice team on both sides of the ball. They will get even better.

The Fitz kid is something else, I hope he keeps it up, a real superstar.

Good luck next year, unless the match is against the Eagles... that is.

January Listings Report (2009)

Welcome to Super Sunday!! Today is the day of the big game of course, but it is also big for MOCO because I've decided to change the format of the listings report. It is my hope that the change will make it easier to follow along with the data. This is something that I've wanted to do for awhile now but I'm not all that great with HTML codes, but maximum effort brings maximum results (at least that is what I kept telling myself yesterday as I tackled the task of cutting down the many and large rose bushes in my backyard).

The data may surprise you a bit, especially in the year over year category. If you can recall, last year at this time was absolutely terrible on the data front in terms of housing in Kingman.

I hope you like the new format, and for whichever team you call yours today in the big game I say good luck and fortune to you. I might even throw in my prediction at the end. But first the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Data tables for all new listings tracked in the month of January 2009

As of February 1 Total Listings on Market

Item	Total Units	Previous Month
Total Listings On Market	498	514
Total Listings Listed as Foreclosed	68	89

Listing Data for January

Item	Month of January	Previous Month
New Listings Total	90	86
New Listings Listed as Foreclosed	22	33
Average Asking Price Per Unit	$175,140	$171,308
Median Asking Price	$134,900	$124,550
Average Asking Price Per Square Foot	$105	$103
Units Re-Listed	18	14
Units Already Under Contract	10	11

New Listing House Data

Item	Month of January	Previous Month
Living Area Square Footage	1,665	1,660
Bedrooms	3.02	3.12
Bathrooms	2.06	2.1
Garage	1.73	2.0
Year Built	1989	1994

Price Range of New Listings in January

Item	Lowest	Highest
Listings	$39,900	$895,000

Here we are comparing data on listings taken in January 2009 and including the data from the previous month for comparison. The average and median asking prices ticked upwards, but there were 12 new listings that carry a price tag north of $300,000 that skewed the pricing figures. No real out of the ordinary changes on listings this month to note other than perhaps the foreclosed listings were 11 short compared to December.

Data tables for all new Units under contract tracked in the month of January 2008

As of February 1 Total Units Under Contract

Item	Total Units	Previous Month
Total Units Under Contract	88	71
Total Contracts Listed as Foreclosed	45	33

Units Under Contract Data for January

Item	Month of January	Previous Month
New Contracts Total	55	46
New Contracts Listed as Foreclosed	31	30
Average Marketing Price Per Unit	$131,448	$125,725
Median Marketing Price	$104,950	$113,900
Average Marketing Price Per Square Foot	$83	$82
Days on Market to Acquire a Contract	111	79
Average Marketing Price Reduction	$17,134	$13,951

New Units Under Contract House Data

Item	Month of January	Previous Month
Living Area Square Footage	1,589	1,521
Bedrooms	3.15	3.13
Bathrooms	2.1	2.1
Garage	1.76	1.7
Year Built	1994	1995

Price Range of New Pending Contracts in January

Item	Lowest	Highest
Listings	$24,380	$349,900

Again the table above compares the pending contracts taken in January 2009 to the previous month. Here the surprise, to me, was the jump in new contracts. While not a huge jump, the units listed as foreclosed stayed at the same basic level and the traditional sellers made up some ground. Good news for those sellers.

Year over year data listings/pending contracts

Listings

Item	UP/DOWN	unit/dollar amount	Percentage
Total Listings	DOWN	140	(22%)
New Listings in January	DOWN	24	(21%)
Average Price per New Listing	DOWN	$48,870	(22%)
Median List Price	DOWN	$64,100	(32%)

Pending Contracts

Item	UP/DOWN	unit/dollar amount	Percentage
Total Pending Contracts	UP	11	14%
New Contracts for January	UP	25	83.3%
Average Marketing Price per Unit	DOWN	$33,220	(20%)
Median Marketing Price	DOWN	$44,050	(30%)

The tables above compare conditions this year vs. the same month last year. Obviously the number that jumps out is the percentage increase of new contracts in January '09 compared to the previous year. As I said earlier, last year at this time was a very dark time for this market. As to what led to the change this year?? I believe the answer is that foreclosed properties have led the way and mostly due to the pressure those listings have put on prices. As homes and property market values decline, more buyers see an affordable opportunity to purchase. It is really no secret. It is the market, and it is working the way it should.

Conclusions:

Slowly the total inventory of listings is coming down, but I believe that has more to do with attrition (sellers giving up) than it has with successful sales. The level of new listings hitting the market is down quite a bit from where it once was a couple of years ago, but the pace of sales is off at a greater percentage. However, because prices have crumbled there is at least some established pace of sales. If the listing pace continues the same this year, and the sales pace increases to higher levels there may be good chance that a real bottom of the market appears.

Predictions:

As you know, I don't do a ton of predicting on real estate markets. I share feelings based on what the current data tells me, but in the end my crystal ball is cracked and I deem it unreliable.

But today's prediction is for a football game.

My heart says one thing, but my head says another. The Cards beat my beloved Eagles a couple of weeks ago. Usually I end up hating the team that triumphs over mine, but my heart won't let me this time. So today I do pull for the Cardinals to win and would love to see the local team do well. Besides, I have a really difficult time rooting for the yinzers from western PA to do well in anything sports related.

However, the Cardinals will have to establish the run early and beat the blitz the way they did against the Eagles. The right plays will have to be called each and every time. The Steelers are, in my opinion, the toughest team in the league. A team full of tough guys. I just don't see the Cards establishing the run to set up play action or to make the secondary continually guess. The QB for the Steelers has always impressed me on third down. He finds a way to continue drives, and I see him doing that today.

I see this game as a dreary imposition of will, the Steelers will be the imposer. Final score 34 -13 for the yinzers.

Cardinal fans, please don't hate. One thing that I am aware of is the fact that I am rarely ever correct on sporting event predictions. Sports Books in Vegas were known to stay open longer if I was on the property back in the day, just in case I wanted to donate.

And that dress your are wearing...

With only day to go before the big event... the monthly listings report for January (oh... you thought I meant the football game thingy?? No silly) I found a great take that I'd like to share about what some are dealing in this thing we call reality.

Come to us today from the BloodhoundBlog by Thomas Hall. Please read the whole thing.

Here is a snippet...

My conversation with my client earlier today started off rather pleasant, really.

Our talk was lighthearted - what were the plans for Superbowl Sunday, the latest buzz about work - the winter weather in Chicago and the prospects of warmer weather arriving soon - hopefully. It wasn’t the reason for my call, but the banter was really my attempt to put off the inevitable. I needed to have “the talk.”

“Your child is ugly.”

The union of the snake

The title above is in reference to the likely fact that I have been listening to way too much 80's pop music on my iPod lately. However the title of the song has the word snake in it and it also appears as part of a word in a local infrastructure project known as the Rattlesnake Wash interchange.

This morning an article covering the recent city council workshop appears in the KDMiner.com website.

Before moving on to post the part of the article I found most interesting, I want to say once again that I am in favor of this future project and hope that five or six years from now it will reach completion. I feel I have to do this because so many folks in the area seem to be either 'for' or 'against' this project or a different proposed interchange project, Kingman Crossing. For years now I have been 'for' both projects. The way I see it, both are equally as important for long range benefits to the community.

Now, from the article...

"This would really be beneficial for the city and the public at large, and it would also put a lot of people to work once this interchange is put into place, once it is constructed," (Kingman Mayor John) Salem said. "At this point, it would be my opinion that perhaps we could go to bond for this or we could come up with some other type of a tax mechanism to earmark some kind of funds for this project."

Emphasis mine above.

On the first part, this notion that jobs will fall from the sky once the interchange is completed rings kind of hollow to me. I've seen this talking point quite a bit in comments at other sites in reference to the benefits of the project. The thing that escapes me though, is how do we know that all these jobs (high paying jobs as many of said) will magically appear (and by that I'm assuming they mean at the industrial center at the airport)?? What folks seem to imply is that here in the early part of 2009, there is a certainty that jobs will show up... in five plus years from now.

Look, I'm all for job creation and hope to see more companies take a chance on Kingman and the labor force, but I hope they do so TODAY. Looking around TODAY and most of us can observe that folks are moving out of the area to find work TODAY. So if the airport authority, other interests, and city officials really believe in the promise that this new road from I40 that will lead to the airport will bring jobs five plus years from now... why not they do something about it TODAY?? If that road is the only thing standing in the way of all these new jobs... why even deal with ADOT or their schedule?? Let someone else play sugar daddy.

As for the second part I emphasized above from the article... really no surprise there. I wrote about what would likely happen back in 2007. While I may have the dates and years off by a bit here and there, I intimated that the movement to defeat the bonds in 2007 was to preserve the bonding capacity for this Rattlesnake Wash project whenever it may be needed in the future. The same folks that were telling the citizens of Kingman that the city shouldn't be planning for an infrastructure project that would help developers and/or landowners (including all of the citizens of Kingman that own 168 acres of Interstate frontage) in another part of town, will now be asking the same citizens of Kingman to aid their development plans and improve their property by funding this infrastructure project. Certainly not shocking, but nonetheless hypocritical.

I'm not going to chide the mayor for any of this. I know he is up against it and has been since he took office. I know he is in favor of improving the economic conditions of this city and would love to do so yesterday. Economic development is a joke in Kingman as it stands right now though, an oxymoron... a contradiction in terms (save for that shop local promotion I suppose). As an aside, come Monday there will be one less place open for business to collect sales tax dollars from in Kingman.

If anything, I'm pleased to see that this project is on the minds of the locals right now. I wish to see it be debated openly and perhaps other solutions to cover costs might be revealed because of it. For now, I'll just look forward to when I'm 42 years old... that is how old I'll be when the interchange at Rattlesnake Wash opens for convenient passage.

The difference between a short sale and a foreclosure (explained)

I get a question from time to time, folks want to know the difference between a short sale and a foreclosure sale. Instead of reinventing a quality post for some detailed information, I found one already written and ready to share. (I love the Internet)

Click here for more information from the AZ Foreclosure Blog.

Read the whole thing.

History lesson...

If history has taught us nothing else, it is that these hard times, too, shall pass. In fact, periodic downturns that constitute the business cycle share much in common with growing cycles that farmers deal with every day, thanks to factors like wind, drought and pests. To every thing there is a season, even misery.

My country, like my company, has weathered the worst of everything and managed to prosper. That’s what we do. We’re Americans, the genetic beneficiaries of adventurers, explorers, optimists. We endure and then we succeed, and the more of us who can maintain our confidence and perspective, the faster this season of misery will pass into prosperity.

Read the whole thing.

A MOCO response

Our pal with the new blog at the Miner's website has offered up something that I thought I'd bring back to MOCO. Unfortunately for Loyd, he is many years late in publishing a common theme that has appeared on thousands of real estate 'bubble' blogs. While the tired rhetoric has the very real feel of 'been there - read that' to it, since it has a bit of a local slant... I figure what the heck.

Before moving on, I do find Loyd's writing style pleasing. He chooses descriptive words and terms very creatively to move his thoughts along. I love his sense of imagery, in fact I wish I had a bit more of that in my writing.

The following will contain some minor disagreements and perhaps some mere reminders, and I'm not offering a harsh rebuke or admonishment... just a little fun writing to start the week.

Find the entire post linked here.

[T]he recent article in the Miner titled "Realtors see light at the end of the tunnel" by James Chilton, is an absolute gem.

When the real estate boom hit here in 2005-06 the Realtor euphoria just could not be contained. They flocked here to the tune of 600-650 souls by some counts just like the California Gold Rush.

What Loyd won't tell you is that the number of Realtor Members of the local Association really has no defined bearing on how many properties change hands. He has even said himself that he has never used the services of a Realtor, yet he seems to indicate that he has either purchased or sold property on occasion over time in his life.

Loyd guesses that Association Membership swelled to 650 at one point, but he has no idea how many other folks in the area that were issued a license to act as an agent to a party on the sale of real property (attorney's also have the ability to represent a party in a property transfer). Not every person with a government issued real estate license is a Realtor.

While I do not have any data to back the following up, I have heard many times that in Mohave County only about 40% of all real property transfers are made by a party (buyer or seller) that has hired representation services of a Realtor. If true, this means that 6 out of 10 transactions happen without us 'pesky' Realtors involved at all.

I cannot speak for any other Realtor or licensee, but I have never been the sole reason that a person of free will has ever decided to buy or sell property. Each and every time I have answered the phone, an email, or have been visited in person by a potential client at my office, after greetings and pleasantries have taken place they always start out with the same following four words... "I would like to"... and end with either "purchase or sell property". That is as true today in this slow market as it was in the booming market.

The point really is, with or without the 650 Realtor Members (at one time) property would have changed hands at break neck speed.

Skyrocketing real estate prices carried the illusion of get rich overnight and every lot and shack for sale in Kingman got labeled. "Just no way to lose" seemed to be the rallying cry to every "house flipper", "speculator" and "rent to riches" tycoon and slum lord within driving distance.

And a few even called me to help them with their transaction. Others certainly called on other Realtors and non member licensees. Still many others turned properties without the need for services.

I was working in my front yard a lot during that time frame and if I had just $10 for every quick buck artist with Nevada plates that pulled up and offered to buy my house, I could just about pay the run up in property taxes I've been hit with.

Yet we are left guessing as to how much his taxes actually went up. Here his words say a lot, but actually don't tell us anything. For all we know his taxes only went up $31 dollars which would 'just about' pay his increased taxes if three vehicles with Nevada plates pulled up and offered to buy his property.

A Realtor or Realtor associate (licensed to sell) is a proverbial Cheshire cat – always smiling, upbeat, and positive – just bubbling with enthusiasm.

Don't forget that Realtors are business owners, and I can't think of a business owner that checks his or her enthusiasm when they open up the office or shop for the day. Loyd has told me that he was a one time business owner himself. Now I'm left wondering if he was downtrodden, sullen, and negative around his customers and if that improved business or not. No way, I'll bet that the sound of a cash register still brings somewhat of a smile to his face in some Pavlovian manner.

By nature, they are a resourceful bunch. They may haunt the Chamber of Commerce for new prospects scoping out Kingman to possibly relocate; or they might cruise the hallowed halls of the Superior Court looking for those divorce settlements that are so just right for down payments. And they are always trolling the Internet looking for the slightest nibble.

When they find one they will spirit them away in their $50,000 SUV and probably assure them they know the address of their dream home and the investment of a lifetime.

Wait, wait, wait. I drive an SUV... are you saying it is worth 50 grand?? It is for sale if so.

Now what else did he just say, that business owners use marketing in the hopes of attracting more business?? Who'd a thunk that?? As for the creative examples he offered, I only market on the Internet.

At the top of the bubble or at the bottom of the crash, the story is always the same.

"There's Never Been A Better Time To Buy!"

This applies to any business owner in some respect. Lawyers will say there's never been a better time for a lawsuit, Wal-Mart will tell us that prices are slashed so don't miss out on the sale of the century, even the kid at the Kool-aid stand will make some kind of encouragement to passers by that may not even look thirsty. It is called free enterprise and I don't begrudge anyone that gives it a shot. Sure beats waiting in a bread line by many accounts.

Now for the record, as a Member of the National Association of Realtors... I absolutely hate the marketing pitch that includes the 'never been a better time' crap. I detest it so very much. I do not use it in my marketing, in fact I go to great lengths to offer an easy way for people to determine if now is a good time to buy for them by way of my monthly sales reports that, in my opinion, offers very revealing data about the current market.

And even though the data still looks pretty bad on average at this time -- the phone rings, the emails come in, and kind folks walk through the door to my office and at some point utter four words to the beginning of a sentence... "I would like to"... either buy or sell real property.

If it's going up – It will never be any cheaper

If it's going down – The turn-around is just around the corner

If it's hit bottom – There's nowhere to go but up

Actually if it has hit bottom, then wouldn't it be fair to say there's nowhere to go but up??

When the mad rush is on, no matter what the rush is for (especially pertaining to issues involving the chance at financial improvement), it is started when actual people observe other actual people that have improved their financial lot... not some lame brained industry marketing ploy.

Seriously, do you believe a marketing effort or a neighbor that says they cleared 50 grand (the value of my SUV, as Loyd has indicated, that is now for sale) on the sale of their property?? Very few neighbors are saying that today at this moment, and sales are down quite a bit even with the continued marketing ploy. I see a relation.

For the short time I have been in real estate, I have yet to hear a client or potential client come to me convinced to buy or sell because of NAR's marketing efforts. However, most all of the real estate investor clients have shared an anecdote about a neighbor, friend, or even family member that found 'riches' when buying or selling property (that is if finding 'riches' is the goal, often times the transfer of property has nothing to do with attaining 'riches'). The ones that haven't credited neighbors, friends, or family for the epiphany tell me they've done it before themselves.

Whatever is going on, the tendency is to paint it with a rainbow and try to convince that it is the best decision and investment ever made. Homeless millions will disrespectfully disagree.

Those millions to be made homeless can thank government that meddled and then failed to regulate, opportunists that manipulated mortgage instruments, greedy developers that capitalized on easy credit and a real estate industry with a "Gold Rush" mentality.

Empty rhetoric.

Loyd, I know you watch TV and maybe even listen to the radio at times. When I happen to enjoy these media outlets I am inundated with commercials to invest in gold (or Obama dinner plates). So what do you think Loyd?? Is now a good time to invest?? The ads certainly make it seem like it is a can't lose opportunity.

If I get burned on a gold investment, will you please write a blog post damning the people that 'made' me invest by painting rainbows and convincingly leading me to believe that it would be the best investment ever made?? After all, judging by what you wrote above, there will have to be plenty of people to blame for my decision.

And, here we sit – assured that very soon – just as soon as those pesky foreclosed homes are all bought up – we can start all over again.

Frankly, I'm just thrilled at the prospect – how about You?

You mean that no doc, no down loans will be back again??

The only way anything starts all over again will be due to greater demand for property in this area. I don't know what would be the incentive used to bring back at least some level of demand for certain. However I do believe that it will likely have to do with progress and the community working with interests that can help improve the area through job creation and other forms of development that spur on even more opportunity. In other words, risk takers are needed.

Yet the way that risk takers are treated here locally, especially over the last couple of years, it is doubtful that Loyd has anything to worry about.

Looks like fun...

I heart traffic interchange discussions

While I was away attending to other things on my schedule, I noticed a lengthy letter to the editor at the KDMiner.com website. The subject is a favorite of mine and I thought that I'd examine the letter here and make a few comments as needed.

Find the letter in its entirety here.

First I want to say that I'm merely commenting on some things to perhaps add more things to the discussion. I won't be 'fisking' in harsh disagreement. I think it is better to simply have more discussion than it is to dig in and take sides until the public has been exposed to as many facts as possible.

The subject is on future infrastructure, namely traffic interchanges proposed along Interstate 40 in Kingman. The author of the letter is making it known that he sides with the future plan for the Rattlesnake Wash project and is against the other proposed project known as Kingman Crossing.

The first part of the letter details his observation of the current condition of the two possible locations of the projects. One project is in the midst of existing residential areas and the other is out where there is no development at this time for the most part.

So I'll skip ahead to the discussion of costs for each project.

Then there's the cost of the projects.

Rattlesnake Wash has a price tag to the city of $12 million. ADOT is picking up the other 70 percent of the cost. This is called Phase I and includes the interchange and arterial roadways from Louise to the airport. Phase II has a price tag of $12 million which connects Louise to Hualapai Mountain Road with no ADOT participation. So now, the city has a completed project for $24 million. But wait. I looked on the map, and with the completed Rattlesnake Wash traffic interchange and connection to Grace Neil Parkway, we have roadway that goes from Hualapai Mountain Road on the south to Stockton Hill Road on the north/west near the college. Talk about access! Wow!

I'll also add to this that Mohave County has offered up $2,000,000 to phase I of the project according to this link. I also look forward to the completion of the Grace Neil Parkway and the eventual connection to the Rattlesnake Wash project as I think it will allow for more convenience as the area develops in the future. The Rattlesnake Wash project is very important and hopefully solutions for local funding will be revealed in a timely manner to not give ADOT, which is under the budget microscope from Arizona legislators, any excuse to remove the project from their plans.

One thing that is left out though is the fact that ADOT won't even be taking bids for construction until after the next presidential election. This project is many years away from possible completion as it is structured at this moment. It would be a mighty long time before the community sees any benefit from the new infrastructure, although I remember attending an ADOT public meeting where it was said that the project could move forward sooner if it was funded by a private source... with reimbursement at a later time on ADOT's schedule.

On the other hand, Kingman Crossing would cost the city $24 million just for the interchange with no arterials. But the cost doesn't end there. Vanderbilt and Vestar said they'd front the cost of Kingman Crossing and charge the cost back to the city.

A local citizen estimated the real cost of Kingman Crossing to be closer to $50 million with the interest paid to the developers.

At best this is speculation and the public has not seen any proposals to draw any conclusions. We do not know how much risk the developers are willing to take on in any agreements, so there is nothing to chew on to make any kind of decision. We do know about other public/private partnership agreements that have been made with this developer and other municipalities or governing bodies, but we don't know what is being considered as it may apply in Kingman. Hopefully we will start to hear about the possibilities in the near future. That way an honest debate will be able to take place.

I can't find a way to take the estimate from an unnamed 'local citizen' source as anything worth considering at this time, your mileage may vary. Local citizens are free to say anything they want, I'm looking for citizens that have some information to back them up for their 'estimates'.

But here's where things are going. The hospital doesn't need Kingman Crossing traffic interchange to operate. I know this because I asked them directly.

Correct me if I'm wrong, hospitals are one sort of business where the patrons are sometimes 'dying' to get in, so to speak. While the hospital may not need an interchange for its implementation of a successful business plan, there may be more than a few 'customers' that might find the convenience of a connecting interchange from one side of town to the other rather important. I don't think it matters much even if lives aren't on the line, a person with a broken hip or arm would probably choose less time in route to an emergency room 99.99999% of the time... but that is just my guess.

The only ones who need this are V&V for their shopping mall project. It seems to me this is a cost of doing business, and the cost should be born by the developers and not the citizens of Kingman. I've heard the developer say the interchange benefits the city. I think it benefits their project.

I agree that the developers would want and probably actually need Interstate access to improve their future development. Interstate frontage without access is not worth nearly the same value as Interstate frontage with access to them and possible future tenants.

However, I do believe that the developers are right in saying the interchange would benefit the city. Currently the city is promoting a 'shop local' program as a way to ensure that they collect every sales tax dollar possible... as it is the main source of revenue the city generates. With Interstate access, the developer would likely have a greater opportunity to attract the kind of shopping interests that many in Kingman are hoping for so that many shoppers aren't faced with a choice of perhaps going out of town to spend... plus perhaps tens of thousands of more sales tax opportunities from people passing through on the Interstate.

Again, the city is doing its 'shop local' promotion now in the immediate time frame and I'll guess that they weren't looking forward in doing so with the same urgency for another six years or more (the time it will likely take to complete the Rattlesnake Wash project and develop possible commercial property that can generate sales tax dollars).

I predict that if the developers get their way and get a commitment from the city for the interchange, the property will go up for sale and the city will be making payments for a traffic interchange to nowhere.

Again, the public has yet to see any proposal drawn up between the city and the developers. From what I know about possible public/private partnerships and how they might work is... the developer FRONTS the money for the infrastructure taking on some dollar amount in risk. The city negotiates the repayment of the money out of funds generated by the commercial development.

So let's stop right there. Let's say that the developers spend millions to build the interchange, if the prediction goes as the writer says and the developer instead sells the property and no money is being generated on the property, the developer is not getting paid back. It would be a monumentally stupid business decision to make that kind of agreement on the part of the developer.

None of it matters at this point anyway as there is nothing on paper worth even debating in regards to any partnership considered.

V&V have already cancelled some of their development plans at other locations, to date, and that's understandable with the current economy the nation is facing. Rattlesnake Wash traffic interchange makes a whole lot more sense than Kingman Crossing traffic interchange. I'd rather partner with ADOT than a private entity, but that's just me.

The writer would rather partner with a government entity that may not have funds for future projects more than four years out... this is how I interpreted the comment. No matter though as both projects are different and ADOT is not even considering the use of taxpayer dollars for Kingman Crossing. Basically a moot point is being made.

I think it is easy to forget that ADOT uses Arizona taxpayer money for projects, ADOT is not some philanthropic entity just handing out huge wads of dough. It is possible that legislators, elected by taxpayers (the bulk of them NOT in Mohave County), could demand to change some plans... there are no guarantees. Public money is... well... very tight these days.

Again, I support both projects and hope they come to fruition as I feel both will benefit the local community for decades to come.

With some help from the property owners in the Rattlesnake Wash project, the cost to the city will undoubtedly be less. I know one of the owners involved said he'd pave the roadways if the city graded the way. That's got to be a savings.

Details though... what are the details??

Yes, there is a development agreement on already on record at the city complex that speaks to this. However there is another component to the existing agreement that would trigger the landowners to come up with the money for the paving. I'll venture a guess that if the economy is in the very same sorry shape it is in today (and there certainly are plenty of nay-sayers around here that speak to many years of gloom and doom ahead), and even with a completed Phase I of Rattlesnake Wash project completed many years down the road, the trigger may not be pulled to help with the Phase II part of the project (would have to be understandably cost effective for the private party of the agreement). Unless Kingman finds its growth 'legs' again, I don't see how Phase II of the overall project happens before the year 2020 (and I hope I'm VERY wrong about that).

The other owners will see an increase in their property values, so their investments will come back to them in the long run. This city has the wherewithal and talent to complete our own projects. It creates local jobs and keeps the money in Kingman.

I have to be honest and say that I'm not following this logic. Not a shot against the writer (it is probably the reader), but how is this 'our own project' when 70% of the funds and the final decision to move forward comes from a state government agency??

Another way to help finance the Rattlesnake Wash project is to take Kingman Crossing traffic interchange off the Capital Improvements Projects list.

The CIP is merely a wish list, if there is no money for any project... removing one from the wish list won't magically make funds appear for another. At this point in time these projects are not competing with each other for city funding.

The city is actively looking ways to come up with funds for Rattlesnake Wash as they have real time lines to make with ADOT (a lot sooner than those bids for construction go out in 2013). It may come down to perhaps looking for a voter supported bond measure to get those funds (purely a guess).

For Kingman Crossing, the only thing I'm aware of that the city (at the request of the developer and landowner) is examining the potential of some sort of a public/private partnership funding mechanism, the details of which probably aren't even on paper yet... not even for a first draft. There may yet be other possible solutions that ultimately do not put the risk on the local taxpayer, but NOTHING has even got close to the point to make such a determination.

I suppose this is why I follow these issues so closely. It seems that the critics of Kingman Crossing simply do not want to see the project ever happen... no matter what -- for whatever reason. Sure, they'll use some comments along the way that point to something about finance but they aren't making a determination based on any sort of fact. The facts have yet to reveal themselves. As much as I'd like to see an interchange be built at Kingman Crossing, I haven't made up my mind as whether to support a funding mechanism... ANY funding mechanism... because NONE EXIST. It is difficult to make a determination without facts, and thus far the critics of Kingman Crossing haven't presented ANY.

Think I'm crazy?? Here are some more reasons this person is against Kingman Crossing...

The voters approved Rattlesnake Wash but not Kingman Crossing.

This is incorrect, but instead of harping on this I'll offer a challenge to anyone who wants to take me up on it. When was Rattlesnake Wash approved by voters?? I know the answer I'll get will be the mention of the General Plan 2020. So those who wish to answer in this manner need to reference the page where I might find exactly where this was approved by voters via this link to the General Plan. It is true that there is no mention for funding an improvement plan on the Kingman Area Transit Study (part of the GP) for Kingman Crossing... it is also true that there isn't one for Rattlesnake Wash either. There's a huge list of projects on the implementation of the recommended plan but no mentioned of either future project. My conclusion is that the voters did not approve the Rattlesnake Wash project.

Kingman Crossing traffic interchange was slipped in six months after the General Plan 2020 was voted in, as a minor change to the General Plan. A look back on the records will show who submitted the amendment. I guess I just don't like things forced on me. When we vote, regardless of the outcome, it is the will of the people. It doesn't matter if we agree or disagree on the topic; the fact is it went through a legal process. Not that the amendment didn't go through a legal process, but it involved only a handful of city personnel and usually little to no public input or respect of the public wishes.

Not really shocked that this went to the General Plan discussion (see previous comment).

First of all, nothing is or was forced on anyone. As we saw not even a short couple of years ago, the voter can have the final say on amendments proposed to the General Plan. Short of that though for a major amendment to the General Plan there are many public meetings held for debate and input, a commission panel decision (made up of citizens), and a vote of two-thirds of the voter elected city council before any approval is granted to change the General Plan (even then it is subject to referendum).

The General Plan was approved by the voters, this is true. We shouldn't forget though that nowhere in the General Plan is there anything to do with moving forward on public funding for municipal projects. It is a plan and that is it. It is NOT authority to spend taxpayer money.

I believe if Kingman Crossing had been put on the ballot, it would have failed.

Perhaps. And perhaps it will one day make it to a ballot for consideration by the voters. Up to this very moment in time, Kingman Crossing has never been on the ballot (and neither has Rattlesnake Wash).

I feel compelled to say again that I am not taking issue with the person that wrote the letter to the editor. I fully support his premise of the benefits the eventual completion of the Rattlesnake Wash project would offer the community. I look forward to the day when it might be possible to utilize the infrastructure.

But I also see possibilities for another infrastructure project that I believe will have many of the same kinds of benefits for the community. Benefits that may be derived before the year 2013 when the Rattlesnake Wash project goes out to bid for construction (and as long as ADOT is still playing sugar daddy).

Of course it will depend on what kinds of burdens would be placed on the community to afford such an infrastructure upgrade. The city must be careful not to put itself out to too much risk, and certainly not take on every ounce of the risk that could be involved in such a high dollar commitment. Any financing plan would have to be clear and understandable with obvious community advantages before a big dummy like me would support it.

Lastly, I love this sort of discussion and hope that more and more folks will join in and help it continue. Would love to see more articles about these issues in the local media as well. Hopefully it will be more than possible to disagree -- agreeably -- if we so choose along the path of any eventual decision.

Also, there is a town-hall type of meeting on the subject of the Rattlesnake Wash project. It will be held at the library on Tuesday night at 6:00pm according to a speaker at the last city council meeting.

Blogging was light...

Blogging was a bit slow this week as I took my annual trip down to Phoenix for the Realtor Professional Standards Committee workshop on Wednesday and attended one of the many Executive Committee meetings for the Arizona Association of Realtors in my role as Region 1 VP the following day.

My schedule remained busy on Friday as calls came in from potential buyers and I followed up on a listing that I've been working on.

Hopefully that kind of business activity continues.

Sometimes winning takes time to learn...

Classic...

The Cardinals fans who left diesel fuel messages in the lawn of Donovan McNabb's Chandler home also left something else - a box with a postage sticker that listed the suspect's name and address.

Click on the link, one of the jokers even wore a Cardinals hat in the booking photo.

Not as I had hoped...

Happy for the fans of the Cardinals for their effort in the NFC title game yesterday, but I am obviously not thrilled by the outcome (as an Eagles fan).

No excuses either, the better team won that game. Executed a great game in the first half and did enough in the final minutes to earn the victory.

I will be rooting for the Cardinals in the big game. I think it is great to see the state of Arizona have another shot at a pro sports league title. I still remember game 7 of World Series back in 2001 when an AZ team won it all. There was an NFL football game played that afternoon in Phoenix as I was in attendance (still remember the B-2 bomber flying over the sky before the baseball game started as I began the drive back to Kingman), and I would have preferred the same outcome between those two teams yesterday however.

Not something you see everyday...

Here is the headline...

Prescott Valley manager declines pay hike

I don't post that as any kind of shot at our local officials, elected or otherwise. City workers have already been subject to hiring freezes and the like. It is just something nice to see in this day and age given the set of circumstances we face. To me is shows leadership over self interest.

Those that work in the private sector are being asked to work and do more for less and I hope those that work in the public sector adapt to the kind of leadership that one person in Prescott Valley has shown.

Urban Land Arizona conference...

Yesterday I was following along Arizona Republic writer, Catherine Reagor, as she was twittering from the Urban Land Arizona conference. And earlier today I remembered to follow up and look for an article because the tweets were pretty good.

Here is the article and a few lines...

Top analysts and economists at Urban Land Arizona's annual conference Thursday said that the Valley's real-estate market will continue to slow this year and in 2010. A significant increase in home prices and sales likely won't happen until 2012.

...

As long as foreclosure rates climb, recovery of the Valley's housing market will be delayed.

"Another tsunami of foreclosures is expected," said Wall Street housing analyst Ivy Zelman, one of the few analysts who early on warned of a dangerous housing bubble in the U.S.

Zelman said lenders need to find more ways to help struggling homeowners find lasting solutions to reduce the projected 5 million to 8 million more U.S. foreclosures expected by 2011.

...

Valley home building has fallen to 1992 levels, a fraction of what it was during the boom. But all the analysts agreed this is a good thing.

"The last thing Phoenix needs now is more new homes," said Gadi Kaufmann, a national analyst with Washington, D.C.-based real-estate consulting firm Robert Charles Lesser and Co. Zelman said only 2,000 new homes should go up in metro Phoenix this year. Fewer than 18,000 new homes were built in metro Phoenix last year.

"Banks are telling builders to stop construction for a while," said Tim Sullivan, a national housing analyst with Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors of San Diego.

...

One of the more startling statistics was how much Phoenix's job growth had slowed.

Phoenix ranked above only Detroit for job creation on a list of the nation's top 25 metro areas, Rosen Consulting said.

"Phoenix has been in the top five for job growth from before there was even a list," Margon said. "This is strange."

He said the low ranking is due to Phoenix's dependence on industries that are "ground zero" for the recession.

"But the outlook for Phoenix job growth is phenomenal," Margon said. "We don't think Phoenix will crawl back up the list. It will leap back up."

Phoenix's key industries will get help from anticipated federal spending on infrastructure projects and the housing bailout.

Nothing really earth shattering in any of that, but interesting to me to want to share. The main reason I wanted to share the above is because the reporter is/was at another function this morning and again was sharing some tweets... that now I'll share.

at az road to recovery conference about 4 hours ago from mobile web

john Lenio - CB Richard Ellis Natl- econ incentive not firms first priority when expanding about 4 hours ago from mobile web

cb lenio speaker says incentives not a giveaway about 4 hours ago from mobile web

companies growth hot points - logistic, labor. real estate, incentives about 4 hours ago from mobile web

labor most impt for cos. looking to expand about 4 hours ago from mobile web

CB's Lenio says AZ not agressive in ECON Development about 4 hours ago from mobile web

Lenio - AZ needs to be hungry growth wont just come here anymore about 4 hours ago from mobile web

steve partridge, former, az econ devel, now w/charlotte chamber is speaking about 4 hours ago from mobile web

improving quality of life underestimated in econ devel. says Steve Partridge about 3 hours ago from mobile web

Barry Broome head of greater phx economic council speaking about 2 hours ago from mobile web

az now 49th in job growth about 2 hours ago from mobile web

GPEC focusing on Solar to turnaround job growth about 2 hours ago from mobile web

GPEC head says AZ more dependent on housing than Michigan on cars about 2 hours ago from mobile web

Okay... now I didn't include each tweet that she offered, as there were many, but I found it interesting to follow along for this days events. No doubt there will be an article posted on the AZ Republic website soon to fill in more details.

While I have a Twitter account, I haven't found a consistent use for it yet. So far I am finding good information (links to information) at convenient times, but I haven't found it useful to get information out or to communicate back and forth.

The 'green' mobile home

Call it what you will... 'pre-fab', 'modular', 'mobile'... whatever, but perhaps in the not too distant future we will see dwellings such as these around these parts. Taken from this online Popular Mechanics article...

The result was the Clayton I-House, an innovative prefab home that can be powered for a dollar a day, thanks to Low-E windows, solar augmentation, high-efficiency appliances, and superior insulation. The solar panels on the roof don't supply all the home's needs, but they do cut electricity consumption in half. There's also a tankless hot-water heater, and a cistern that collects rainwater from the roof for use in gardening, car washing, or other outdoor uses. Floors are made of fast-growing bamboo, and paint and insulation are low- or zero-emission.

Read the whole thing for more information on the conceptual design. More of this please, is what I say. Advances in other technologies for use in traditional site-built homes will equal more affordability and higher demand as well.

Eagles fly into Arizona...

Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb celebrates Sunday, as does Cardinals QB Kurt Warner on Saturday. They'll meet next Sunday, Jan. 18, 2009, in Glendale.


As you might imagine, the Eagles fan that I am, I snooped around for tickets to the big game coming up this Sunday here in Arizona. No avail. Tickets are going for much more than face value and I'm sorta tapped out on the entertainment budget at this time (after spending money for Eagles game tickets in Minnesota).

I'm obviously thrilled to have had the opportunity to see the Eagles begin their playoff march in the NFC a couple of weeks ago, and certainly it is surprising that the match up this week ends up being between these two teams (lower seeds usually don't make it this far).

But here they are and here I am in Arizona and while I'm happy to see the fans in Arizona come alive for their team after decades of less than stellar performance, I'll be cheering on the team in midnight green (of course).

I've hoped for success from the Arizona sports teams since I moved to this state. It normally takes some success to establish a loyal fan base, that and perhaps a generation of folks that grow up with a home town team.

Each year I try to catch a Diamondbacks game when the Phillies come to Phoenix for a regular season series... and I always see a decent amount of Phillies fans there. Same can be said anytime I've made the trip to Phoenix to watch the Eagles visit... many fans cheering on the Eagles. The worst is heading to a NHL Coyotes game when the Red Wings from Detroit visit, half the stadium -- at least -- has a rooting interest for the out of town team.

Only success and a new generation of fans will change that. The D-Backs won a world series in 2001 and I think that has helped them hold a majority of fans for those games (unless the Yankees or Cubs come to town). And I say this with all sincerity, the Cardinals just need a title to finally establish the needed following...

... but, man alive, NOT AT THIS TIME.

I know that I'll be a loyal fan of my original home area sports teams the rest of my life, that won't change. I may be being a bit selfish right now coming off the Phillies World Series title... but a Superbowl win at this time would be real nice for this Eagle fan.

Win or lose though, I wish the Cardinals and their fans well. And if by chance they best the Eagles, I will be hoping that they bring home the trophy... but not this week... not for this game.

While I may not be able to attend the game in person, it looks like many Iggles fans will be making the trip this way. Birds fans travel well. Hide the women and children.

What a mess...

Foreclosures up 208 percent in Arizona, 81 percent nationwide in 2008

The report also shows 1.84 percent of all U.S. housing units (one in 54) received at least one foreclosure filing during the year, up from 1.03 percent in 2007.

Foreclosure filings were reported on more than 303,000 U.S. properties in December 2008, up 17 percent from the previous month and nearly 41 percent from December 2007. Foreclosure activity for the fourth quarter was down nearly 4 percent from the third quarter, but up nearly 40 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007.

Arizona’s 2008 total of nearly 117,000 properties receiving foreclosure filings was third-highest among the states, trailing only Nevada and Florida. Foreclosure activity in Arizona increased by 203 percent from 2007 and 655 percent from 2006.

Rounding out the top 10 foreclosure rates for 2008 were, in order, California, Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Illinois and New Jersey.

A flat fee I'd gladly yield further negotiations on

I'm sure I'm not the only Realtor getting this email, but since I'm a little short on prospects with $15 million dollars to throw at a property these days I figured I'd share this with everyone. The 'commission' or the finders fee in this case would certainly help make up for any losses in production over the last couple of years.

Hello again Todd!

One Million Dollars is still available to give you. That’s right! I cannot wait to hand it to you personally for simply finding the buyer for my beautiful property.

Oprah showcased me on her show as an eligible millionaire bachelor. Shortly afterward I "inherited" a gorgeous parcel of land on a golf course complete with a house, health resort, restaurant/bar, and acreage for expansion.

It's the Southern California Dream - Live, Work, Play, and NO commute!

So why am I selling it after 11 years?

Well, my dad will be 90 in February and it’s time to take him traveling. So now I'm doing something totally outrageous! GIVING AWAY $1 MILLION!!

Check out: www.GotToSeeItToBelieveIt.com It’s new w/YouTube video!

Send this site immediately to all of your friends/clients. I make no mention of the million dollar finder’s fee, the identity of the property, or any contact info. That way they must contact you.

You never even have to see my estate near San Diego, much less show it. Just send me the buyer. It sells, you're a millionaire! That simple.

I hope to write you the $1 Million check. I’ve done it before and I can’t wait to do it again!

With pen in hand,


Paul A. Walton

Owner

Castle Creek

Feel free to help this dude out if you want.

Pretty good take...

From this post at Chicago Boyz...

California has followed the grim path of the Great Lakes states.

As I wrote before, those states where once the industrial dynamo for the entire Earth, yet they destroyed that enormous economic dominance by political policies hostile to economic creativity. Likewise, California had a golden era as an economic and cultural dynamo. Well up until the late 1980s California was the place to go to make it big. People moved from other states to California. Now, internal migration has reversed. California looks less like a dreamland and more like basket case waiting to happen.

Emphasis mine above. Read the whole thing (not long and the comments are good too).

Depending on how you choose to view what was said, this could be a good thing for Arizona and also it is hopeful that Arizona doesn't continue to follow the goofy political policies of the failing state.

Found via Instapundit.