Good luck to the 'Friday Columnist'

Most of the locals know by now that a certain journalist at a certain local newspaper is no longer under the employ of the certain local newspaper.

This young person reached notoriety for not only his coverage of local events, but also for his op/ed articles that mainly appeared in the Friday edition of the Kingman Daily Miner. He seemed to be either loved or hated in Kingman, hardly any in-between. His writing would certainly create long conversations amongst many of the people I know that read the paper. And honestly, I looked forward to the Friday edition just to see if my blood would boil halfway through the piece.

I'll never forget the phone call one Friday morning from a pal. It was just a little after 6:00am and the voice on the phone simply told me to read the paper... and that I was going to be pissed. I happened to be part of the subject matter in the op/ed that morning and it was in that article where I learned that I'd probably lose a debate to a nine year old sister of the author.

This was my only response to the op/ed.

I know what you may be thinking, now that this journalist doesn't have barrels of ink at his disposal that all the angst that I must have saved up will now come rushing out. That vengeance is now mine to take... but that won't be so.

It took awhile, but I actually came to respect the young man in the few weeks following that op/ed.

You see, he believed that I wrote something on this blog that was in error and came to my office for a discussion. The people here at the office knew that I was not very happy with this person at the time and wanted to make sure it was alright with me before allowing him into my office for a chat. I was surprised to know that he was here. As it turned out, the issue he had about what he read on this blog was not something that I actually wrote. MOCO's other contributor was the person he needed to speak to.

I was on the phone when I was informed that the 'Friday Columnist' was at this location and practically at the end of the phone conversation. However, I made the person on the other end of the phone stay on the line with me for another few minutes as I wanted the visitor to wait.

What came next I will not fully describe as it was not one of the more prouder moments in my life. Instead of just informing the young man that he needed to take up the issue with the other contributor and just moved him along and out of my office... words became heated. I take full responsibility for that. The dude stood his ground and fired back against any volley I made. The exchange probably lasted for no more than a couple of minutes. Again, not a moment that I am fond of due to my part of the confrontation.

No, no closure that day and the respect level certainly was not there at the moment. A couple of weeks later I run into him at the city complex. He is the last person I want to see since the run in at my office. Since it was a public place I knew that we wouldn't be revisiting what took place at the earlier occasion. Still though, I just wanted to keep my distance.

But he looks over at me and begins to say something about how he didn't write that to... and I cut him off. Basically I told him that it didn't matter, that I was over it, and even that my Dad thought his op/ed piece was entertaining (something along those lines). It was when he started to speak where he earned my respect and that put the whole thing away for me. The truth actually was though, until that moment I was still pissed. He proved to me that he was a stand up kind of person (your own mileage may vary... I'm only sharing my side of things).

Now I won't say that we became good friends or even friends at all after the entire episode ran its course. The way I viewed what followed would be akin to swimming in waters with a barracuda. I actually did snorkel one time off the Florida keys in close proximity to a real live and in the wild razor sharp toothed fish that could do plenty of damage... if provoked. Yet I learned that I could co-exist with the fish and enjoy my experience without fearing an attack. Just keep the an eye out and some distance and everything should be fine (no sudden movements). In fact that snorkeling experience would not be nearly as memorable if it wasn't for the barracuda entering my field of vision from the side about four feet away. The same thing applies to the 'Friday Columnist'.

So with all that settled down, next came some BS rumor mill talk that I was behind an effort to see to it that this young man was somehow fired from his now former place of employment. A rumor that was untrue, and even though it was untrue I still reached out to this dude and his boss letting them both know that I would never do such a thing (they both personally communicated back to me that they didn't think I would be a part of such nonsense). In fact I told people that if we really wanted to 'get rid' of him then we should be promoting him to other newspapers that pay more so that he would have incentive to leave on his own volition. Perhaps that may now have happened and is the reason he decided to move on.

Well for whatever the reason, I honestly wish him good fortune to wherever his journey takes him. It was an interesting couple of years... not good -- not bad... just interesting. I know he stumbles across this blog once in awhile and has even commented a few times (it has been appreciated).

We had a couple of more discussions since those days gone by in my office and I'm happy to say that they were fine discussions. Very civil and all that. While you may or may not like his writing style or attitude or whatever (I take issue with some of that still)... he is a nice young person with a great opportunity in front of him. I harbor no ill feelings towards him personally.

Good luck Nick.

A take on last weeks lending news...

Good review of the happenings last week.

Rate information can be found below the article. Interesting information.

A new shopping development planned...

A bit closer to Kingman even.

A California-based company is planning a 380,000-square-foot commercial center on 37 acres in the northwest Arizona community of Golden Valley.

Westar is in growth mode and constantly coming up with new projects.

All real estate is local... (local political rant included)

I have to give credit where credit is due. I can't act like I found this real estate article on my own. Frequent comment contributor Ken Herskind sent me an interesting link this morning. I've decided to do some cut and paste with the article, but really you should read the whole thing.

Article linked here.

Housing rebound: When to spot one
Nationally, there's still a dark cloud hanging over housing. But to check the health of your local region, look for a few key clues.

By Amanda Gengler, Money Magazine writer

Title of article above and here's some bits of the article below... with commentary of course.

This is already one of the worst national housing downturns in half a century. But what's really scary is that judging from the still-huge overhang of unsold homes - one of the key indicators of the market's prospects - things could get worse. In fact, much worse if the economy slips into recession.

But real estate is a local game. Your region could be in far better shape than the country as a whole. Median prices for existing single-family homes in a third of the country's metro areas are actually higher than they were a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Okay... our region is NOT in far better shape than other parts of the country but there are many interesting points that do correlate to our situation, things we most likely need to be mindful of.

Remember too that during the boom, regions moved at different times. Las Vegas and San Diego were among the first markets to take off. Boston spiked early as well, but not to the same degree.

I remember emailing back and forth with other Realtors from other parts of the country during our local 'boom' and them telling me that they were not experiencing the same things in their market. Mostly folks from the mid-west. Of course now... those same folks are not experiencing the same kind of 'crash' that we seem to be entertaining ourselves with here locally now either.

Just as cities moved independently on the way up, they're not moving in lockstep on the way down. That's why "it's more important than ever to examine what's happening in your city," says NAR president Richard Gaylord.

Yes, fine advice... even though it comes from NAR (I am a member for disclosure, but I like to play along with the folks that seem to think that NAR is part of the devil incarnate).

Our city, our market, we do have an idea as to what is happening. Personally I use the sales reports that I find on some blog that is published in Kingman to get an idea as to how many homes are selling and for what price level. It has fancy charts and stuff like that... What's that Beatrice?? Oh... that is right, I publish those charts here on this blog. Maybe the data helps you as well, but this article points to other issues that are most likely more important that some statistics.

This isn't to say that you'll be able to precisely time the market. But keeping track of a few key indicators will give you a general sense if a turnaround is near.

For starters, pay attention to changes in your local job market. The more new jobs created, the greater the demand for homes. Conversely, an uptick in unemployment - or a persistently weak labor market - can warn you a recovery may still be far away.

To me, this is the biggie as it pertains to our local market. The info above is all too self explanatory. Here are some more...

The problem in most markets today is simple: too many homes and too few buyers.

I know that I've heard this somewhere before... Beatrice?!?!

Therefore, the best signposts to look for are a significant reduction in the supply of homes and a jump in sales, says Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research.

But getting local data on inventory and sales isn't that simple. Your local realtors association or a competent agent should be able to provide you with basic supply and sales figures, though the type of data will vary. So be sure to ask for as much as you can: monthly inventory of homes in your area, average days on the market and total number of homes for sale.

With many local 'experts' chiming in at public meetings stating that there are thousands of unsold homes in the Kingman area, it makes me want to beg to differ with the article writer, obviously many people in our locality have inventory data (they just have the wrong data).

While we really haven't seen a significant reduction of supply, supply seems to be heading to lower numbers very... very... very slowly (that is based on the data I collect and I admit that it may not reflect each and every property available for sale in the Kingman area, but I know that my data is not off by 'thousands').

It is more than likely that sales of listings are not bringing inventory numbers down all by themselves. I see many listings expire on a monthly basis. Also many listings are simply taken off the market for a variety of reasons. Since new listings have kept up at nearly the pace they have over the last year, while sales have done the same (neither stat is what I'd consider 'good') it is obvious that other factors have contributed to the trimmed numbers of property on the market.

A telltale sign of your local market starting to heal: The rate of home-price declines should start to slow.

Sorry folks, but this telltale sign hasn't revealed itself as of yet 'round these parts.

If you start to track these figures, be patient. "You need at least three months of smaller price drops to be confident the market is really shifting, since housing numbers are really volatile and are affected a lot by the weather," says Patrick Newport, an economist with Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm.

So if you're a buyer who's looking for the best deal, wait at least that long. If you're a seller, be even more patient. That's because even if prices stabilize, they could stay low for a while. In fact, it likely will be months before prices rise again.

Really hard to argue on this one. Our market hasn't truly found a true and consistent market level since average sales prices began to plunge. Once sellers and buyers begin to speak on the same terms we'll notice a difference.

Is it cheaper to rent than to own?

Here's a useful back-of-the envelope calculation: Take the price of the type of home you want in your market. Now call around or ask your broker to see how much it would cost annually to rent a similar property in the same region. For example, if you can purchase a home for $540,000 but can rent a similar one for $36,000 a year, your so-called price-to-rent ratio would be 15.

In general, buying starts to look attractive when the P/R ratio is around 15 or lower, says Newport. (The current national average is 12.5.) As your market's P/R ratio falls, more sellers are likely to come into the market. So demand could pick up and help stabilize home prices.

I think the writer made a mistake and actually meant that more 'buyers' are likely to come into the market to help stabilize home prices.

I just grabbed a rental list from property manager extraordinaire (who is continually on a quest for world domination) Helena from the office next door to mine to see if I can find a rental that matches up with the average sale of a home in the Kingman area. Oh yes... I found one.

The average sale for a single family home back in May had 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a 2 car garage with a bit over 1,500 square feet of living space and sold for a bit over $170,000. On the rental list I find a home similar in size that calls for a monthly rent price of $835.

$835 times 12 equals $10,020. $170,000 divided by $10,020 equals just a smidge under 17. Obviously not a number under 15.

Here is some more bad news... I occasionally ask Helena if rent prices are going up or down... or stable. Today the answer as it has been for awhile now... thumbs down.

Double whammy for our market.

Are houses more affordable?

Unless a significant percentage of households in a market can afford to buy homes there, sales won't rise. It's as simple as that. So check your region's affordability level.

The National Association of Home Builders calculates this figure - which it calls its housing opportunity index - for about 220 metro areas. The index considers a home "affordable" if no more than 28% of median family income in that area is required to pay for it.

The national average is 53.8, which means that slightly more than half of the homes purchased recently were deemed to be affordable. But again, it's not fair simply to compare local data with national averages. So if you really want to know if conditions are improving, check if your region's affordability index reading is climbing. In St. Louis, affordability has risen from 77% a year ago to 80% today.

I decided not to go the extra mile and research our local affordability level. The writer has given enough information as to where to find such info and hopefully it is available for at least Mohave County.

I just have a hunch that Kingman is not St. Louis and affordability is a greater concern than most folks around here have considered.

Now there's one more indicator you might be aware of: foreclosures. The rate of foreclosures in your region is certainly one sign of the health of your market. But this is a lagging indicator. It can sometimes take six months or more from when a homeowner first defaults to foreclosure.

Foreclosures are currently putting pressure on the falling prices... does anyone disagree?? Banks are competing with banks right now in an effort to get rid of their non-performing assets and leaving human sellers in the wake. At some point banks will compete once again with us humans but by then...

So "by the time foreclosures peak and start falling, the market will have already bottomed out and turned around," says Larson. In other words, buyers will have missed the sweet spot.

So buyers you too will have to pay attention to the market.

Yikes... none of the fundamentals covered above look all that bright in our local market.

[political rant on]...

The jobs market here is not what it once was and with so many local jobs being tied into growth and development it is easy to see how the calls for limiting growth has affected property value (even property on the sacred street of Seneca).

The hardships of a reduction in jobs, in my opinion, has led to many people trying to sell their property... leading to a surplus of inventory of homes for sale and clearly swinging the negotiating power to the side of the buyers... and it is NOT clear how many buyers are 'in' the market. Buyers are showing patience each and every month... and they are being rewarded.

The surplus of homes for sale has led to clear price concessions in order to attract whatever population of buyers that are out there. Sales prices have been falling but actual sales have not noticeably increased.

Falling prices have left some sellers in the position to try to rent out their homes instead of selling. Good for inventory of listings perhaps, but it has increased the number of rental units on the rental market. In turn we have seen fierce competition amongst landlords reducing prices and therefore keeping the cost of rents lower than the cost of ownership. It just may make sense to rent instead of purchasing at this time, depending on personal situations... that is if you are sticking around Kingman instead of looking for opportunities on other communities.

The clear lack of demand and the loss of opportunity (jobs) has also affected the ability to afford housing in many cases. It is all related folks.

All of this ends up leading to increased foreclosure activity which is never good for a community.

The local elections in 2006 were trumpeted as a clear defeat for growth related issues. So did the 2007 November special election. I know this because some in the media were cheer-leading at the time. People were inexplicably led to fear 'explosive' growth the same way that I fear explosive diarrhea.

Those of us who work for a living in this community were basically told that 'we just didn't get it'.

But Todd, but Todd... don't you remember the 'emails'?? Bullshit (sorry for the language, this post is PG-13).

But Todd, but Todd... there were grifters - pirates - and rabid animals to fear. Really.

But Todd, but Todd... we voted on the General Plan as a community. Loyalty to a document required by the state government but legally can be (and has been) changed as situations change... color me not impressed.

But Todd, but Todd... slaugherhouses, tattoo parlors, and adult bookstores. Oh my.

My guess is that some of the media folks and other community 'limit the growth' pom-pom shakers have been negatively impacted by their actions... especially as it pertains to their property value. Oh for some that won't matter as they believe they are living in the last home they will ever live in. The negative implications may finally dawn on them when the level of service they need begins to suffer or worse... when a methlab or crackhouse is two doors down on their street instead of somewhere across town (oh noes, I think I just did a scare tactic, my bad. The judge orders the jury to disregard the comment about the methlabs and crackhouses).

Does it have to be this way?? From the article...

Your region could be in far better shape than the country as a whole. Median prices for existing single-family homes in a third of the country's metro areas are actually higher than they were a year ago

No it does not have to be this way is the correct answer. Other communities are improving their situations. Kingman can as well.

If I learned anything in the couple of semesters of college it was this... how to copy. If a third of the country's metro areas are getting passing grades (I consider an increase in property value a passing grade), then we need to copy what they are doing. Doesn't matter if we copy their study habits, or their resources, or just simply grab their test off their desk and copy their answers and turn in the exam to the professor and mooch some beers off a pal after class... whatever.

We can't get expelled from this figurative classroom for copying papers. There is no professor here that would stop us so there is no real risk to take. Pick a success story or two and copy at will.

What is it that is going to attract opportunity and demand?? Welcoming those that are willing to take their own risk to make a buck or two is a great place to start. Yeah... that means having conversations with developers willing to risk real money, their money, to create opportunities for the community as well as themselves.

...[Political rant off]

I took lug-nuts for granted...

Until yesterday that is.

I served on a hearing panel in Phoenix yesterday in the early afternoon. I began my trek home back to Kingman in the early afternoon hours. As I began to exit Interstate 10 to catch the 303 loop in Phoenix my rig started to shake and shimmy. Thinking I may have a flat I pulled the vehicle off to the side of the road on the 303.

To my surprise my left rear wheel was missing a few lug-nuts and in fact the three studs were gone, completely shorn off. One other lug-nut was obviously stripped at that point and luckily there were two that were still working and after jacking up the rig and tightening both I limped into a tire service center.

I am really fortunate and lucky. The service company got me back on the road with all new studs and lug-nuts within an hour and a half and I was back on the road heading for home.

I remember telling the folks at the hearing panel that I was looking forward to watching nine innings of the All-Star baseball game last night... I managed to hear the first seven on my XM Radio then caught the remaining eight innings (game went long) at home.

Luckily I'm back and in one piece. Have to catch up on some blogging. I even heard there was some big news taking place yesterday at the Kingman Daily Miner. Maybe I'll get a chance to check that out.

And in this corner...

You may have heard a rumor this week that there was a bit of a dust up between two city officials after the latest City Council meeting last Monday night. Well whatever you heard... you heard. I'm not here to say what DID or DIDN'T happen.

Dave Hawkins was nice enough to send me his article on what Don King might try to sell as 'The Brawl at City Hall'. Besides being a part of the best double play combination on the ball-field in Kingman, Mr. Hawkins also covers the news for radio and the weekly local newspaper The Standard. The article follows...

PHANTOM FIGHT FALSE---COUNCIL MEMBERS CLARIFY ARGUMENT
DAVE HAWKINS

They’ll probably never kiss, but they say they made up rather quickly. And Kingman City Council members Kerry Deering and Keith Walker indicate that they’re amused that a private argument between them is being portrayed through the local rumor mill as a fist fight.

"Typical Kingman," sighed Deering. "There’s just a bunch of crap going around."

"Everything has just totally been blown out of proportion," Walker concurred.

The elected officials agree that they engaged in a heated argument in the law library at City Hall, following the July 7 council meeting. But they also throw cold water on word around town that they became involved in a physical altercation.

"Keith and I were the only two in the room and we basically had a little conversation," Deering said. "We did raise our voices a little bit, but it was over. We shook hands. Things are good."

Deering’s version of events is corroborated by Walker.

"We’ve talked and everything’s fine. We left that night. We shook hands and walked away," Walker said. "This had nothing to do with city business. It had nothing to do with anything we voted on. It was just a personal issue. It got heated. We got into an argument where we raised our voices and that was about it."

Deering said he and Walker shared a few laughs that some have called Walker urging him to press charges so Deering would be expelled from office.

Sergeant Rusty Cooper said the police department is aware of the spat but is not involved in any investigation. He said, however, that the incident, because it occurred on city property and involved two city-paid individuals, is being treated as a personnel matter handled through the Mayor’s office.

City P&Z not blowing 'hot air'...

Tuesday night the Kingman Planning and Zoning Commission made a recommendation to City Council to allow for wind-powered generators on all property sizes in the city. While this is only the first step in the process, it is more than favorable in my opinion.

Here is the article from the Miner on this one.

I'll add my two cents...

Windy debate heads to Council
Nicholas Wilbur, Miner Staff Reporter

Thursday, July 10, 2008

P&Z recommends no minimum lot sizes for turbines

Again, the action by the commission went further that I thought they would (happily).

How would you like to have a 30- to 60-foot high wind turbine in your backyard? Or, how would you like to see one in your neighbor's backyard?

In my backyard... I'd love it. In my neighbors... I'd be jealous if I didn't have one (and it would sure beat the leaves and the other things that blow off the trees and into my backyard). So count me in with the folks that would zero issues with 30 to 60 foot towers with electricity generating wind turbines affixed at the top.

The benefits of wind power aren't a secret, and nobody debated them at the hearing Tuesday - it saves water, lowers and sometimes even eliminates electricity bills and is more cost-effective than solar panels.

What's more, wind energy is going to become the norm as popularity makes the structures more affordable to the average citizen, and all seemed to agree that getting out ahead of the trend would work in the community's favor.

The next home that I buy (in Kingman) will have a wind turbine in the backyard (that is unless some new fangled contraption is developed by the time I think I'm ready to buy a different home). A home that comes with reduced utility bills will be worth more on the market than a home with more traditional utility bills (especially in the summer time when it is normally hot and the air conditioner becomes quite a cost to run in order just to be comfortable in your own home).

Several commissioners were hesitant about the move, but when Matt Ladendecker pointed out they had heard zero opposition, the commission voted unanimously to recommend that Council approve the policy at its upcoming meeting.

"I don't see a huge problem with having a half-acre lot on here instead of one, and again, if ascetics are not a concern for the general public, then I don't see a problem," he said.

Commissioner Mike Schoeff, although not personally in favor of seeing a turbine in his neighbor's backyard, seconded Ladendecker's view. "If aesthetics are not a concern, then let's not go to minimum lot size on it. If that's not anybody else's issue, then why restrict the size of the lots?" Supporters whooped and hollered and a round of applause broke out as he spoke.

Reading this brings a smile to my face.

According to Development Services Director Gary Jeppson's research, ordinances governing wind energy systems in Lake Havasu City and Bullhead City allow turbines only on one-acre-minimum lots.

Good opportunity to show leadership on this. The other communities may have the shopping and other revenue generating issues under control, but Kingman can at least show some important leadership on this issue. Success has to start somewhere.

Read the whole article.

June Sales Report (2008)

First half of the year is over. In terms of unit sales, the first half of 2008 is the worst in terms of performance since I began to track data on a monthly basis. Although I don't have all the data from all of the years in this decade... it is not a stretch to guess that this first half of the year has been the worst of the decade.

You gotta like that... I jumped straight in with the bad news. No sugar coating here. No 'Realtor Spin'. Nothing.

Also worth noting... June of 2007 saw the highest average sale figure for any month since I began to track this data. As you will see on the charts... we are slipping off the charts very quickly.

As a bonus this month I will report on the foreclosure impact on sales. Look for it somewhere after the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings and sales in units chart:

Production slipped compared to the previous two months this year, but is no worse than it was last year. Listings are trending down at a slightly steeper angle than sales figures but not enough to bring these lines together anytime soon. Really... more of the same as it has been for some time now.

Average listings and sales averages chart:


Both lines are trending dramatically lower over the last year, however (and this is bad news in my opinion) average sales figures are actually trending at a lower rate than are new listings. This clearly tells me that sellers are simply not being aggressive enough with their price offering and buyers are still waiting for the right priced property to make an offer on.

Sellers really need to consider their offering price for 90 days down the road, instead of 90 days ago.

2005 through 2008 unit sales chart:


With the exception of the first two months this year, the production numbers are swimming along nicely... WITH THE WORST YEAR IN TERMS OF PRODUCTION (since I've been keeping track). Nothing to get all that excited about really. In some ways I'm beginning to feel that the production numbers from all of last year and up to this point are 'normal'. I know that 2005 was NOT normal and it is silly to compare this years production to 2005.

2005 through 2008 average price chart:


Here we will compare the average sales price for June of 2008 against June of 2005, and it is clear that once again the average sales price is below the 2005 level. I have a hunch that the light blue line representing 2008 will look a bit lonely as the next six months start to go by.

If we compare the average price in June of 2007 to June of this year you will see that the figure has fallen 27%. While there was no change to the production numbers year over year, the average price took a huge beating.

What do you think?? Will it correct more or are we bottoming out??

2005 through 2008 median price chart:


The median price fell 27.2% as compared to June of 2007.

The price range of units sold for June of 2008 was from $30,000 to $377,400

Average SFR statistics:

The average home sold in June had 3.04 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2.06 car garage, included 1,632 square feet of living space, and was built in 1996. The average hold sold for an average of $105 per square foot of living space.

It took an average of 109 days of marketing to attract a buyer to come to an agreement and a total of 143 days from the first day of marketing to the close of escrow.

Sellers reduced price $15,359 to attract a buyer on average from the first day of marketing, and conceded another $12,021 to the buyer in the transaction. The total average price concession for the homes sold in May was $27,380 (13.82% total reduction).

Bonus Charts:


The average price per square foot fell 21.5% as compared to the year before.


Foreclosure Impact:

I just began to track the foreclosure listings and sales a few months ago, so no fancy charts to share... just raw data.

In terms of units sold, of the 50 sales reported for June -- 16 were listed as foreclosed on (32% of units sold).

The price range of foreclosed units sold for June was from $30,000 up to $325,000.

The average price of foreclosed units sold for June was $149,425 (12.5% lower than the overall June figure).

The median price of foreclosed units sold for June was $129,000.

The average foreclosure home sold in June had 3.13 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1.875 car garage, included 1,573 square feet of living space, and was built in 1996. The average hold sold for an average of $95 per square foot of living space. Owners of foreclosed on homes conceded 13.2% off the initial offering price.

I hope this foreclosure data was helpful. If you like it I will continue to offer it with the normal stuff for at least as long as the foreclosures are having the kind of impact on the market that they seem to be having right now.

One half of the year down... one half to go. The race is on to see if 2008 can eclipse the lame production figures of 2007. See you next time.

Ouch...

Heads up (local) Realtors

I sometimes pride myself on being observant. Well today I first observed that our MLS vendor has updated the WARDEX site so that it can be used on the Firefox browser. Now I don't know how long this has been available on Firefox, but today is day number one for me. I consider it big news (maybe you've been using WARDEX on Firefox for weeks now, I'm slow to react to things that go in my favor at times).

I love it for one simple reason... one less reason to use Internet Explorer. Thank goodness.

Hooray beer!!

How about shopping in Havasu??

All right... we've covered the new Target and Kohl's shopping center in Bullhead City enough (for awhile at least). Yes we still see folks make comments in the paper or whatever about how these commercial centers detract from the character of the town and provide jobs that only pay a pittance.

So lets now take a look at a different community IN Mohave County and what the folks there have to say about their new retail commercial center located in Lake Havasu City.

Normally I link the article I'm taking information from. In this case I can't do that other than for this link here. The article comes from this months Economic Development Journal/Mohave County (article written by Regina G. Purcell). Yes, they have a website (I've linked to it) but in this case their paper version is much easier to read. You can pick one up in many places around town. We have them here at the office where I practice real estate.

The article's title is 'Wal-Mart Super Center newest anchor store at new open-air mall in Lake Havasu'. Now I realize that Wal-Mart won't excite the folks here in Kingman like perhaps a Target would. We already have our own Super Wal-Mart, and life is well... super because of it, right??

Anyway here's a few bits from the article...

According to Lake Havasu City officials, the 150-acre Shops at lake Havasu is projected to generate $3.7 million in transaction privilege (city sales) tax annually and once the large mall is fully developed and all of its store are in operation, the cmmercial outlets in the outdoor mall will collectively employ in the neighborhood of 2,000 new jobs.

Lets just play devil's advocate for a second, lets say the projected sales taxes are off by half, the city of Havasu would still rake in nearly $2 million dollars a year. Not bad.

While some will say that the 2,000 jobs will be of the low paying variety, it is possible that these jobs will help bring other employers (with higher paying jobs) to the area. This new commercial center improves the amenities of Lake Havasu City and therefore this has the possiblity of making their community more attractive to other opportunities. Plus, no matter how you slice it, just knowing that there is 2,000 employees at a mall has to be attractive to any new employer thinking of moving to the area. While retail jobs aren't normally career choices, they tend to be proving grounds for employees. Good employees often end up in better jobs because they've developed the skills need to prove their worthiness to employers looking for a better skilled employee.

Anderson Chrysler Jeep & Dodge in Lake Havasu broke ground in May on its new 38-acre auto mall, the first-ever in Mohave County. The first of several auto dealerships that will go into the auto mall is Anderson Toyota, which will occupy a 45,000 square-foot facility and showroom. Some of the additional auto dealerships may come from outside Mohave County.

Hey... isn't Anderson Toyota currently in Kingman?? Didn't I buy two brand new Toyota's there within the last 5 years?? Didn't a portion of the final sales price end up being sales tax collected by the City of Kingman??

And... if additional auto dealerships are to come from outside Mohave County, doesn't that mean that new commercial development attracts new capital investment into the area?? Yes... I think it does Martha.

With the estimated cost of the Anderson Toyota dealership building in the $6 Million range, together with the value of all of the land that is being developed for the auto mall, the entire commercial investment by the Anderson group in Lake Havasu is in the neighborhood of $20 million.

Seems like lots of money trading hands locally to me. Sure could use some transactions like that around our neck of the woods.

Lastly...

This fall, Ultrastar Cinemas, a 10-screen movie theater and Michaels Arts & Crafts store will open, Martin said. There are also seven out parcels of land available, which will likely house banks and fast-food restaurants.

Hey wait a minute... no fair!! Havasu already has a multiplex for catching first run movies.

You know for an article with the title of Wal-Mart in the header... there wasn't much talk of Wal-Mart at all. Plenty on new auto-dealers, retail business, new banks, a theater, and eating establishments though.

(confirmed tennants listed in the article appear to be: Wal-Mart, JC Penney, Dillards, Kay Jewelers, Amercian Eagle Outfitters, C.J. Banks, Christopher & Banks, Famous Footwear, Styles for Less, Bath & Body Works, and Victoria's Secret)

Well... that is how the other folks are livin' these days. Just thought you should know.

Who will pay??

I can't say that I'm surprised. In today's article from the Miner there is a bit about how 'impact fees' won't be enough to guarantee enough income to pay the city's portion of the many years out Interstate project known as Rattlesnake Wash.

From the article...

Fortunately, the city is responsible for only 30 percent of the project, about $11 million of the approximately $35-million interchange project. The state is picking up the majority of the tab.

Unfortunately, the city's impact fee revenue totaled only $1.7 million through June 30, an amount comprising incomes since the fees were implemented in 2006. The transportation portion of those revenues - the part that legally could be used to pay for the traffic interchange - sits at a two-year total of $756,839.

Based on the past two years' income, the city wouldn't be able to pay its share of Rattlesnake Wash using impact fees until 2037.

While it may be fortunate that the state is picking up $24 million dollars... and Mohave County is putting $2 million dollars aside to help Kingman pay for the needed infrastructure... this is only phase one of a two phase project. Kingman is on its own for another $11 million dollars or so for that 'evacuation route' as some have called it that leads south from RW to Hualapai Mountain Road.

More...

If Kingman does not have its share of the costs for Rattlesnake Wash by 2013, the project will be canceled. There are several other options available, including revenue bonds, community facilities districts and other cost-sharing avenues available to the city, all of which will be explored for the two projects, (Mayor John) Salem said.

So... who will pay??

It would interesting to see if the hopeful solution comes down to revenue bonds. I mean some very interested people in Kingman were against the bonds on the ballot last year, but revenue bonds for this project won't likely meet the same resistance from those same folks since this project is so close to property and interests they own.

The campaign signs put up for last Novembers special election had the word 'NO' all over them, my guess is that if the hopeful solution is passing a bond or two for funding that the signs will be strewn with plenty of 'YES'... maybe even the words 'pretty please'.

The bottom line though is that this project is NEEDED for our growing community (for such things as improved public access connecting other parts of Kingman, for improved commercial access to the airport, and to help the natural progression of growth along the Interstate and towards the east side of Kingman). This is a very important future project and along with expansion of the city boundaries, the community should be looking at realistic ways to make the proposed infrastructure a reality. Hopefully a CFD, improvement district, or other forms of development agreements can be worked out with the private property owners to a large degree.

At this point, as of this day... I have to believe the property owners at both proposed new interchanges will have to pony up and front major portions of the costs. I'm in favor of reasonable reimbursement options out of new commercial sales tax revenues created at developments. Maybe even some kind of additional charge (like impact fees) on any new residential developments in the areas and thereby passing costs to reimburse on to the new residents of the developments.

The time to be creative is right now.

See another good article about impact fees right here.

UPDATE:

Our good buddy, Ken Herskind, had an interesting bit to offer from the article linked at the top. You can read the entire thing there but I wanted to share this...

If the 168 acres are rezoned commercial and the interchange put in for Kingman Crossing, the PEOPLE would stand to receive TENS OF MILLIONS of dollars which can be used for other needed services and infrastructure....ALL WITHOUT RAISING OUR TAXES A DIME.

So, I personally would like to see both interchanges, but the people of Kingman have a vested interest in Kingman Crossing.

Yep, and while a few of us were trying to make that point last year... our voices were drowned out by folks with other interests that were more for their own personal interest instead of the community interests. The new council has to take a firmer grasp of all the issues surrounding the Kingman resident owned 168 acres near Kingman Crossing. It really isn't difficult to manage this incredible asset in order for the entire community to benefit.

Happy Birthday America

IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America

When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their Public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected, whereby the Legislative Powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary Powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil Power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefit of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation, and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & Perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these united Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States, that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. — And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.


Do indeed enjoy our great holiday. Please be safe. From all your friends here at MOCO, God Bless and let freedom ring.

** A MOCO RE News Alert **

MOCO RE News is updating an earlier news alert. Weather conditions expected today include very breezy conditions. The Yahoo Weather Forecast for Kingman says to expect winds between 15 and 25 miles per hour for most of the day.

Experts indicate that it is okay to be outdoors in such conditions but people should be reminded to use lip balm to avoid chapped lips that often occur in dry and windy conditions.

For other ideas as to how to react and perhaps even improve your quality of life under these conditions, readers are asked to click on this link and watch the demonstration.

Once again, this has been a MOCO RE News alert... now back to our regular scheduled programming.

Got my scissors... out

Yep, once again, it is that time again. Time for those scissors to get some use in response to something I saw posted online. This occasion comes from a post from the Mayor's blog regarding the subject matter that I pointed to yesterday.

A reminder... I'm not writing the following as a personal attack against the author or anyone else. I'm merely exercising my right to perhaps disagree a little.

The victim here... is actually a person that occasionally joins the discussion here at MOCO. This person is someone that I think is friendly and means well and I have no ax to grind with him on anything.

Here goes...

Posted: Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Article comment by: Loyd

Here we go again.

When I read the words 'here we go again' I hear Chuck D's voice in Public Enemy's song called 'Bring the Noise' and now that tune will be stuck in my head for the remainder of the day.

But yes Loyd, here we go again...

Les Byram and the prior council sent a very clear message to the V & V group that they should make their presentations and proposals at "PUBLIC" meetings where Kingman residents could field questions and bring clarity and understanding to this project.

The V & V group is code for the development company named Vestar and the private property ownership group Vanderbilt Farms.

The funny thing here is... the V & V group has held many public meetings and have presented much of what they plan to develop. As far as the 'proposals' are concerned... a very large public outcry shouted the V & V group down all last summer. The land owners and developers could have promised to pave all the roads in Kingman gold for free last year and they still would have been met with loud opposition.

Let us not forget that last summer it was all the rage to be against any new project that involved Kingman Crossing. We had the email controversy, we had the community group RAID speaking out against conditioning the Kingman resident owned property for highest and best use, and we had others trying to have us believe that the V & V group was out to steal all of our sales tax dollars. Man... those were goooood times.

It is indeed interesting that they sat back and waited until a "New Council" was seated and then again came to the city hall back door with another of their "Presentations".

Funny... I see it as 'Old Council' washed their hands of the mess once the special election last November was over and as many in the community told us that the elections result was an indicator that 'Old Council' was nothing more than a 'lame duck'. 'Old Council' must have agreed as not one city official up for possible re-election bothered to, while an unprecedented amount of citizens actually did pull in the required petition signatures to run for those positions.

I'm not surprised one bit that the V & V group wanted to meet with the new mayor and council as it was more than obvious they weren't getting anywhere with the 'Old Council'.

Not speaking for R.A.I.D., but they should be more than happy to sponsor one of their "Town Hall Meetings" to address the Kingman Crossing issue.

I wouldn't mind seeing such a town hall event like that myself... but I don't think it should be a requirement in any way shape or form. IF there is a proposal made (someday), each member of RAID will get his or her chance to speak in public and lend their support or criticism to such a proposal. The key to all of this is to allow an actual proposal to reveal itself... not something that was allowed at all last year.

To bring Kingman Crossing into reality is probably going to require the participation of all concerned – V & V, the city, property owners in the interchange vicinity and probably the voters and residents of Kingman. If V & V chooses to exclude any stakeholder from the process, then a result similar to history's recent lesson will likely just be replayed.

(emphasis mine)

Well since it is a FACT that ALL citizens of Kingman are property owners of a nice parcel of land in the interchange vicinity... and any agreement the city is pondering is up for public debate... I can't see how ANY stakeholder in the area is going to be excluded.

As far as the recent history lesson is concerned... I doubt it ever gets replayed. Amazing what one bad year on the economy makes. Think about it. Some of the very folks that spoke out against Kingman Crossing last year are publicly stating that they are FOR more than one interchange because those public infrastructure projects equal growth, growth equals opportunity, opportunity equals cold hard cash. There simply aren't as many people willing to side with the 'save the sacred street of Seneca' folks any longer.

One more year of having to deal with traffic on Stockton Hill. One more year of having to go many miles out of the way to get to a place one could throw a rock at and hit before departing. One more year of expensive gas prices. One more year of jobs leaving the area. One more year of young people leaving the community for opportunities elsewhere.

Yep... there was a history lesson in there last year... but I don't think it really was what Loyd thinks it is.

C'mon Mr. Mayor – let's get it all out on the table and into the light. Lead – don't be a peddler - you are after all, the Mayor, not an ambassador. Invite, if you must, but have them come to the public input table, not the city hall back door.

Loyd WAS right 'cause here we do go again. Give me a break with the 'back door' gobbly-goo. The mayor blogged about the meeting with the V & V group for Pete's sake. If any person had ANY issue concerning the city... one of the first places they should feel welcome at is the mayor's office. The mayor has been elected by the voters of this city to represent the people of this city. No better place to start.

Now that we are asking the city to treat everyone equally... then we should treat everyone equally. If Loyd has an issue, I bet he heads to see the mayor... and what do you know... I'd do the same thing. It shouldn't surprise anyone that when the V & V group has an issue that they, too, go see the mayor.

There is no 'back door' to the mayor's office. Not when Mr. Byrum held the office and not with Mr. Salem at the helm (and I didn't vote for either but I still totally can respect the job that both did/do).

I don't see the harm in allowing ANY one person or interested party to begin discussions with the very people that us voters in Kingman elected. In fact it is what I expect the mayor and other elected officials to exactly do.

Read the infamous emails again, I dare you. Find where there was any proof of a true 'back door' deal in place for the Kingman Crossing project. You won't find it.

The city tried to change a land use designation on the resident owned property and the elected leaders passed it with the required votes needed AT A PUBLIC MEETING. Then some citizens didn't like it and put the issue on the ballot for a special election and the PUBLIC VOTED. The city council asked the voters for persmission to possibly sell Kingmans best asset, and the VOTING PUBLIC turned the request down.

There was a email conversation about a stupid idea that wondered if the city could 'blight' the resident owned property... but a city employee had stated in a responding email that the city council would have to make that declaration and last time I checked city council meets to discuss issues IN PUBLIC. That one never even made it to a meeting... because it was an idiotic suggestion in the first place.

I think we all remember the bit about the V & V group wanting to 'freeze' out any other commercial development on the Kingman resident owned 168 acres across the Interstate from their property. Remember the stir that caused?? How ironic then that it would be the voters of Kingman that fundamentally 'froze' out the resident owned property when they voted to not allow the city council to sell any part of the property. Since that day I haven't seen or heard one city council member (past or present) suggest selling any part of that land. It is, for all intents and purposes, 'frozen'.

The good news is that all major parties to this 'back door' paranoia are no longer under the employ of the fine citizens that live in the city of Kingman. It is more than time for the process to begin again. It begins at the city complex no matter how you slice it. It certainly doesn't start at a Rotary Club meeting or for that matter a RAID meeting.

They need to sell us - we don't have to sell Kingman - it's already one of the best.

They need the opportunity to sell us, something they never got last year. Never - never - never. As a citizen of Kingman myself, I'd love nothing more than to see, hear, read a proposal that would ultimatley mean an improvement in public infrastrucure, more sales tax opportunity, more retail and commercial space aligned off the Interstate, job opportunity, and community enhancement.

Who is going to get in the way this time when all of the above is now a clear need??

The Mayor wants your input...

Before I begin... I have to say that I am impressed with our new Mayor and his blogging skills. His blog on the Kingman Daily Miners website is worth frequenting.

Today I find that he submitted some words about that old cantankerous issue known as 'KINGMAN CROSSING'.

Go here.

Give him some feedback.

(I have to say that it is a pretty good feeling finally being able to link to other local blogs)

commenting is on hold...

Something is up with the vendor that I use for comments. Hopefully the issue will be resolved shortly.

Thanks

UPDATE

Comments seem to be working again, Hey!!

Have you heard...

Hat tip to the Phoenix Real Estate Guy for this.

June Listings Report (2008)

I present you the listings report with a twist this month. Look for raw foreclosure data mixed in with the more normal sets of data. I've been getting plenty of phone calls and emails from readers that want that kind of information... so it is simply better just to share. A few extra mouse clicks for me, but well worth it in the ongoing effort to bring the best content possible to the great readers here at MOCO.

On to the report... but first... yeah you know so say it with me... the disclaimer...

Disclaimer... all data compiled for this report comes from the WARDEX Data Exchange and does not include any sales activity from outside that resource. All research is done only on single family homes and there is no inclusion of modular homes, commercial properties, or vacant land. The geographical area researched includes; all areas within the boundaries of the city of Kingman, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area, and the Valle Vista subdivisions. Click here to see maps of the included area's.

Listings:

Today total listings available for single family residence equals 594 (down 2 units from 596 on June 1). The total number of units that are listed as 'foreclosure' listings is 66. The rate of new listings taken per day in June was 3.6. Compared to last years total listings available on the market are down 20.9%.

There were 109 new listings taken in June (down as compared to 118 in May). The total number of units listed as 'foreclosure' listings for June was 28. The average asking price for the new listings is $206,556 (down from last months $213,108). The median asking price is $156,400 (sharply down from $189,000 previously). Newly listed units are down 17.4% from last year and the average initial offering price dropped 16.6% as compared to June of 2007.

The average newly listed home in June has 3.13 bedrooms, 2.07 baths, a 1.7 car garage, with 1,700 square feet of living space and was built in 1991. The average asking price per square foot of living space is $121. Lastly, 17 of the new listings were actually re-listed either by the same or different broker. 9 units listed last month are already under contract and 1 already closed.

The original price of new listings last month was from $69,900 through $650,000*.

* please note, there was a new listing with price tag of $2.9 million dollars entered into the system for June. I removed that listing to run the numbers because it would have skewed the average listing price upwards by nearly $30,000. Plus, I feel the property is hard to comp, I mean how many other homes are on top of the mountains and include its own private lake??

Units under contract:

As of today there are 90 total units under contract (up a few compared to the number of 87 last month). Of these, 25 were listed as 'foreclosure' sales.

53 units entered into contracts in the month of June (no change, the same as the 53 the previous month). Of these, 17 units were listed as 'foreclosure' sales. The average asking price for homes that received contracts was $190,165 (up from $176,582 last month) and the median asking price for June was $152,450 (up a little from the previous months $149,900 figure). Units entering contract are actually up from June of 2007 by 8.16% and the average marketing price is down 7%.

The average home that went under contract in June has 3.17 bedrooms, 2.17 baths, a 2.0 car garage, with 1,680 square feet of living space, and was built in 1995. The average asking price per square foot of living space for listings that entered contract this month is $113. It was also priced $13,972 higher when it first was listed as compared to its current asking price (the average price reduction was $15,496 last month). The average marketing time to reach a contract was 90 days (from 116 last month).

The advertised price of units that entered contract was from $67,500 through $539,000.

Conclusions:

Still a challenging situation for the market, even though some numbers are getting slightly better. But I think considering the foreclosure data reveals significance.

First off 42% of all 'foreclosure' listings were put into the system last month alone. Couple that with 'foreclosures' nabbing more than one out of four units as newly listed right now and the figures are most interesting. Even for the month units listed as 'foreclosures' basically took one out of three contracts for the month. Oh... I'd say the heat is on.

Foreclosure sales will have a huge impact on our market and this might just be the beginning.

If it wasn't for the foreclosures, the good news this months would have been far less new listings coming from folks that are considered home owners, i.e. residents. Inventory levels seem to be holding steady right now even with the influx of foreclosure listings.

An early look at sales from last month shows that unit sales will be very close to what they were last year and the average sales level will be close to 2005 levels. We'll see that report next week some time. Until then, have a great day!!

Look outside (locally)

It may come as a shock, but weather conditions outside in the greater Kingman area equal what one could describe as sunny and breezy.

Looks like somebody has taken notice and is going to try and capitalize.

Appraisal pains...

Pretend you are the seller of a fine home. You've reduced price multiple times on your quest to find a buyer. Success!! Sort of anyway. A buyer makes an offer... it is too low (you think) and after a few rounds of negotiation via counter offer forms... you settle on a sales price you never would have thought you'd accept.

The buyer is NOT paying in cash, which means the buyer is working with a lender to borrow the needed amount to meet the terms in the agreement (think sales price).

Before you call that moving company... take the following into consideration.

This comes from the BloodhoundBlog (and they just turned two years old, so happy belated birthday to Greg, Cathleen, and the rest of the very fine contributors of that great site).

I ask that you read the whole thing, but I'm gonna share the information that should scream out to you below from that post.

You probably won’t sell your home for an above-market price, but even if you do, the home still has to appraise for that price

Catchy title, eh??

So your house is finally under contract. Congratulations. It took longer than you thought it would to sell, and you had to go through three price reductions before you got regular showings. But now you’re under contract and in escrow. You’ve made it through the inspections and you’ve taken care of all of the repairs. Nothing but smooth sailing from here, right?

Not quite.

Here comes some bad news you hadn’t anticipated: Your house didn’t appraise.

I can tell you from recent professional experience that appraisals are not coming in for even the agreed to price on the contract you worked so very hard through lengthy negotiations. Here is more...

A lender will only lend on the appraised value or the purchase price — whichever is lower. If the appraisal comes in lower than the purchase price, something has to give.

Greg goes on to say that a buyer is protected in most contracts in the sense that if a house and/or property do not appraise, the buyer can simply cancel the contract and receive their earnest money back. Thanks for playing.

Or... the buyer can ask the seller to reduce the sales price (once again) to the appraised value (subject only to the appraiser and how he or she feels that day). If it is only a few thousand dollars it might not be all that bad and the seller may do it... but what if it is an additional ten thousand or twenty thousand?? Again, normally, thanks for playing.

The lender will not underwrite the loan, so the buyers will be forced to cancel using the financing contingency.

You could end up waiting quite a while longer for another buyer. And that buyer could offer you quite a bit less for your home. And even then, your house will still have to appraise for the purchase price. If home values continue to decline, you could live through this same nightmare a second time.

Again you are pretending to be the seller on this one. And if you've been a seller recently that has been given a low appraisal, it is a nightmare. Sometimes the appraisal report does not get finished in a timely manner... other times it is possible that the underwriters are slow to give final determination on the status of whether or not the loan is a go. It is more than possible that, as a seller, you are given the bad news of the low appraisal with about a week to go before scheduled closing. Yeah... a nightmare.

Appraisers and loan underwriters are skittish right now. Lenders are taking back homes and selling them for fifty cents on the dollar. Appraisers are being fastidious to make sure they are not overestimating values.

There are three check boxes on a typical appraisal form that speak to the current state of the market on the form. The options listed are the market is: 1) appreciating, 2) stable, and 3) DEPRECIATING.

On the most recent appraisal report that I've actually seen with my own eyes here in the Kingman area... option number three was checked (you shouldn't be shocked). This is a big indicator that underwriters watch closely when making their determinations. As a buyer or seller, at this point you are powerless to the appraisal form.

Once you get the bad news about the low appraisal... you are free to search for other comparable sales. You may even find a few sales comps that did not make it on the appraisal report that show sales data that point to a higher value. It probably will not matter. Not in this market. Not with all the eyes of the various government agencies out there looking for something that can be considered 'unscrupulous' (even though the buyer and seller agreed that the value of the home was the amount listed as the final sales price).

The buyer will probably cancel the contract... or at least extend the close of escrow period so that they can find a different lender and start the process all over again. With values dropping monthly, chance are that the next appraisal will be in line with the first one.

Fun huh??

And all of this is just another reason to price your home to the market. You probably won’t find a buyer willing to pay an above-market price. But even if you do, the home still has to appraise for that price.

So, once again, are you sure you really WANT to sell?? I can understand the NEED to sell, but if you fall into the NEED to sell group then I suggest following the advice I emphasized above. You are not only competing against other sellers in perhaps similar circumstances as your NEED indicates, you are also competing with foreclosed on property that banks are maybe getting $0.60 cents on the dollar for. You might want to think three or four months into the future as well. What will the property market value be then?? Will today's listed price even appraise in 90 to 180 days??

Tomorrow is the day that I'll share the listing report for June. I'm going to include a new data figure. I'll report how many new listings are of the foreclosed flavor. See you then.

Home for sale... includes wife!!

I know my limits. As a real estate professional... I simply cannot compete with the likes of this.

From the article...

PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL -- A struggling single parent and real estate agent is trying to sell her house and find a husband. She's auctioning off both her home and her love in a package deal on eBay and Craigslist.

And here I thought flat fees were a bit out of the ordinary.

The 42-year-old real estate agent, tired of struggling on her own, came up with a package deal to auction off her Palm Beach Gardens home and herself on both eBay and Craigslist.

Traboscia told News Channel 5 "If I have to place an ad to find my prince charming, I will. I'm doing it for the real reasons, the right reasons, honest, sincerity and respect. And I hope whoever reads it will read me that way."

There are no words...

In the ad, Traboscia writes:

"If you want to live the never ending dream and experience the real love, life and the romance you have always felt was a fairytale then this is the vibrant outstanding woman of your dreams! To sweep this European Loving Lady off her feet send in your application right now."

You see folks... I simply can't offer my love and romance along with the other... more typical... shall we say... services that are normally practiced in the real estate industry. Again... I know my limits (I know them because my wife put those limits on me).

The ad description says that her four bedroom, 2,000 square-foot home, that will be included in the deal, has "neutral colors, Berber carpet, and upgraded tile".

Traboscia has traveled the world, but Europe, and its men, are her favorite. "The men there are very captivating, they're very vibrant," she says.

Does she like Europeans or just the better value of the Euro?? That is my question.

Anyway, if you want to see some photos of the woman that is included in the purchase of the house (or is it the other way around??), click on the link above. And... if you are interested... all you eligible men out there... there is a link to the Craigslist ad.

Enjoy!!

You know that old expression...

I'm talking the one that goes... "I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out". Well it was kind of like that at my entertainment venue of choice I attended last night. No... there were no fights and in fact everyone was very nice and respectful.

But I went to a RAID meeting last night and all that was talked about was how to grow this community. Yes I'm oversimplifying a bit, but that is what I took out of the meeting when I left. For basically an hour and a half... how to attract beneficial growth was an underlying theme... at a RAID meeting.

The main advertised content for discussion last night was in fact those 'impact fees' that have been a hot point of conversation amongst many in the Kingman area. The impact fees were discussed at length and I think many in attendance that spoke up made good points.

Invited to the RAID town hall meeting last night were; Mayor John Salem, Council Members Robin Gordon and Keith Walker, and City Manager Jack Kramer. I won't speak for anyone else, but I was impressed with each city representative last night as various points were brought up by the audience and how those points were addressed.

One thing for certain came clear, for me, out of the discussions last night... Arizona has some stupid laws on the books with crazy requirements put on Arizona cities. There were a few nice ideas put out last evening, but those ideas were met with certain state statutes that basically eliminated the good idea.

I thank the hosts for last nights event for making me feel welcome. It is my hope to attend more of these kinds of community meetings in the future (no matter who is hosting). I did not speak up on any of the issues last night, but I do want to thank the Mayor for asking me if I wanted to before the meeting was over. It was my intension to listen to all issues last night and I feel that I benefited from doing just that.

One of the points the city representatives made last night was they wanted and needed to see how the 'impact fees' have curtailed specific growth related projects. I think their request for proof will be granted. I have heard through the grapevine of some smaller buildings not being built because of the additional fees that are tagged on to other typical costs such as permitting and required improvements.

So if anyone does know of projects put on hold or scrapped all together because of the high cost of commercial impact fees, please contact our City Council members and tell them what you know.

When this discussion was taking place, the only thing I would of added was all the proof they'd need would be staring us in the face once some stability returns to the economy and the market. You see, both neighboring communities such as Bullhead City and Lake Havasu city are a ways away from Kingman. Kind of like in the far corner. Those communities are 'over there', if you get my drift. But when things smooth out again (some day) I think it is very clear that we'll see noticeable growth in both residential and commercial building outside the current city limits.

We know that the master planned community that is going to be developed in the Golden Valley area is pretty close to getting all the necessary authority it needs from various government agencies to begin their project. That project is not 'over there'... more like right around the corner. For now, Kingman has the advantage simply because of the population base -- but how much will that matter is demand springs up its pretty face once again and all the builders (small or large) pull permits at the county for new projects... instead of the city??

I am already aware of many people moving out of the Kingman area because of the lack of opportunity brought on by the bad economy (much of it due to national issues, but they directly affect us in our humble area). A competing community could swipe other folks that live in Kingman and depending on the success of the developing community... sales tax revenue could easily follow in greater numbers. Not a good thing for city services at all.

Luckily... to some degree... the city is not threatened by ongoing development in the county area close to Kingman (again... a bad economy is right here, right now). Kingman has time to right itself and to ensure that it is competitive once things begin to turn around. It is time for Kingman to be aggressive in setting the stage for another round of good solid growth... whenever that happens.

Once again, last nights event was a success in my eyes. It is quite clear now that the community is ready to work together for progress that offers benefits to all. Thanks again to RAID for hosting a fine town hall event.

Interesting stuff from the Mayor's blog...

What?? You didn't know that the Mayor of Kingman, the honorable John Salem, has a blog?? Well you can find a link to it right here. The Kingman Daily Miner was gracious enough to offer Mr. Salem some room on their blog page and I think that it is great to see our mayor keeping us in touch with what is happening.

I found an interesting passage on his most recent post and wanted to share.

Infrastructure: Members of staff and I have been habitual in attending the ADOT State Transportation Board Meetings. Staff has made several addresses to the board on behalf of Kingman. It looks like we have been added to the five-year plan for some capital projects in Kingman. Statements made by board members at the Nogales meeting last Friday reiterate the consensus of the board that private money in addition to city and state funding for infastructure shoots projects to the top of the list as far as priority. This means that highway capital projects may become a reality in the near future rather than just a smoky dream.

Emphasis mine above.

Like I said, interesting.

What to do on a Thursday evening in Kingman??

Tonight I find my schedule lacking. The first half of the softball season is over (only took one throw that skipped off the field in front of me in the face so far this year) and I thought that I'd hit the town tonight.

My first thought was to check out a new movie at the cinema... but gas is $4 bucks a gallon and the closest first run movie theater is in Nevada which would cost me about a quarter tank and an additional hours worth of drive time... so that is out the window.

Then I thought maybe I'll do some shopping for some good name brand clothing, but again that would mean a trip out of town (probably to Havasu) to the NEW mall... gas at $4 bucks a gallon, yadda yadda yadda. So that is out.

So what to do... what to do??

Hey, I got it. I read that there is a town hall meeting slated for this evening and it is being hosted by those rascally community defenders against slaughterhouses and tattoo parlors. Sounds like the kind of entertainment that money can't buy to me.

The subject matter this evening apparently will be those 'impact fees' that have become a very popular point of contention since they were implemented a couple of years ago.

Hot damn!! A RAID meeting and 'impact fees'. I know the out of town readers are jealous and no doubt depressed that they'll miss the fun and games.

If you are in town, and out of entertainment options youreslf, why not come by the old Elk's building that is located downtown on the corner of Fouth and Oak streets?? Should beat an errant throw bouncing off your face (I'll let you know for sure tomorrow).