Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Press Release From County Supervisor

I'm linking this here for all of you to take a look at.

Like I've said before, I don't want to be Mr. Popular or anything, but I think it was time to shed some light on what the county was considering for approval for minor land divisions.

Here is a link to the matrix.

A couple of things. First of all, this is not the realtors fight. This issue will affect property owners throughout the county. I've been taking phone calls from landowners that live in other states since the article in the local paper came out. Most folks want more information on the proposal that the Supervisors are considering... and they are calling ME for that information. To me that is the disconnect with this issue. Landowners from out of state and local landowners simply were not noticed and have very little knowledge of the plan.

Second, in the farther out area's in the county there is plenty of private land. The land is assesed and taxes are collected. This benefits the county, doesn't it? Yes there are people who live in remote area's, but those people chose to live out there and many were the first people who became residents. These people knew in advance that there may not have been electricity to their property line, their property may not have been in a fire district, and may not have had the most accessible roads. It wasn't like there were hundreds or thousands of people living around them who suddenly left the area leaving a ghost town.

Mr. Byers is hoping for an alternative plan that us realtors will come up with. The only real alternative is to adopt the Growing Smarter legislation that was passed at the state level like other counties in Arizona have. This is the legal way for the county to go about addressing the issues they face.

Otherwise, the county might expect landowners to challenge the county in court, which is no benefit to me a property tax paying resident of Mohave County.

There will be more on this issue I'm sure. If you are a local landowner please come to the next Supervisors meeting on July 10th at 9:30am to at least hear more about how this issue may affect you. Oh and feel free to support other landowners in their quest to defeat the proposed minor land division matrix.

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Interesting Local Builder Quote

Linn said he is weathering a downturn by cutting overhead and not building inventory.

“This thing got so crazy this last year, that people were selling houses making a $100,000, on average trying to make $60,000, they’re going to have to come off that. And the builder that doesn’t discount, if it makes it look like I’m going bust because I would discount, that’s wrong too. It just needs to get back to a normal deal,” he said.


The article comes from the local paper and you can read the story here.

The blurb here is interesting because I think he is smart to avoid building more inventory at a time when there is so much to choose from currently on the market. My previous reports have shown that 40% of the homes on the current market are brand new never lived in homes, i.e. new construction.

Yep the building biz has been very good to many builders in recent years. Interesting to note that this builder is willing to discount the price to sell off his inventory, this is the same strategy that I've been offering prospective sellers in this market. If Ron Linn is still doing well by selling at a lower price, I bet owner occupied sellers can do well also.

Seems as we are heading for a normal market again.

Monday, June 26, 2006

In The News...

Now I've done it for sure. Last week was a busy week for me, the Association called out to the media and had a press conference on the subject of the proposed land split matrix that the county is considering approval.

You can read more about that here.

Also, in another story you'll see some more quotes from yours truly about the current market in Kingman. You can also read that here.

And if you are listening to local radio today you'll get to hear my voice, a couple of radio news outlets are also running this story about the land split matrix. I'm probably using up all of my fifteen minutes of fame, at least it is for something positive instead of negative.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Mohave County P&Z Land Split Matrix Proposal...

Do you own a 5 acre parcel of land in Mohave County? Maybe you are thinking about it? Well you should know that the Planning and Zoning Commission has put together a new matrix for land splits that they would like to see approved by the County Supervisors.

If you did have that 5 acre parcel and thought of splitting it into 2 or more, you should know that your property would have to have; not only a private maintained road but a public mantained roadway passable by 2 wheel drive vehicle, access to electric service or an agreement with a utility company to extend service at YOUR cost, and the property would have to be within a Fire District.

Basically you'd have to come up with plenty of costs to qualify your property to split the property and sell it. Any wonder what that might do to land prices? Well if the property isn't already close to such amenities it would render the property unmarketable. This matrix, if approved, would only benefit larger land developers. Land developers who would be able to aquire large amounts of land for little cost from the land owner, maybe that land owner is you.

Make your voice heard on this, tell your county supervisor that you would not support such a matrix. Let them know that the county has no legal authority under the Growing Smarter or any other state legislation to implement such restrictions.

Monday, June 12, 2006

Local advice for sellers

Just to give any potential seller an update on this local market, please consider what I have to say.

Sales in this market are still good, the pace picked up again last month but it still lags compared to last year at this time. Plus there are many more listings for single family homes on the current market than before.

Last year, and parts of the year before, this market was besieged with investor buyers who were putting alot of pressure on the market. Residential buyers were having a hard time finding a residence to purchase because there were hardly any listings to choose from. As a result, prices began to rise and have continued to do so. But now buying at current prices doesn't make sense for the investor, so the pressure that they put on the market is gone. It's good news for those residential buyers who plan to upgrade to a bigger home or for the buyer who is relocating to the Kingman area.

Residential buyers are still active in the market today, but have many choices now and are taking their time in making a final decision to purchase. One way to lure those buyers is to place your home on the market for less than the average listing price. Face it, folks still like to make a deal and now have negotiating power that they didn't have last year.

I know your home is better than the home your neighbor sold 6 months ago and feel that you should get more in price than they did, but if you choose this path you will see your home sit on the market for alot longer than you might imagine. Ask your REALTOR for the average price of sold homes that compare to yours from at least six months ago. You may be surprised to see that it's not much less than the average prices today, but it is low enough to make sure your home gets many more looks from buyers in the market right now.

Bottom line is that you probably will have to make some concessions in the current market, and price is the easiest and least painful one to make. If you bought your home in 2004 or before you likely have had the value of your home increase 50% at todays average selling price. Don't be affraid to cut into that percentage a little to sell your home.

Friday, June 02, 2006

I'm posting these GIS maps to help you better understand my local market and from where I do my data research that I share with you.

First, below is a Mohave County and as you can see the purple area is basically the reach of the Association I belong to. Apparently it also includes Colorado City with I think doesn't show on the map. It is even further to the north.

My fellow REALTORS in my local Association have quite a diverse landscape for doing business. Of course most of this area is undeveloped land. But there are many folks who will call a REALTOR to either help them find or sell a home or property in these far reaching places. Some REALTORS even specialize in the far off communities.



Now on this map below I've circled the area's from which my data searches come from. As you can see I pull the information from a much smaller land area than what my local Association covers. Are there SFR's outside of these circled area's? Yes for sure there are. However there are many different factors that make including these places difficult when it comes to comparisons. For example some that live in fine SFR's outside my search area are on multiple acres with or without fencing, with or without other improvements like barns and corrals for animals or multi car garage's or workshops. Still others live off the grid and generate their own power, while some drill for wells while others have water delivered to them. Just too many variables for me to include.



The map below show the city boundaries of Kingman in yellow. I include the area in purple because it is so close to Kingman and there are plenty of SFR's. An area that locals call Butler falls in this purple area. Butler is probably 80% mobile homes on about 5,000 square foot lots. In that area there are SFR's and this area probably has the least expensive homes found on my searches. Well this area and old downtown area that is the southwestern most area in the yellow area.

However, also in the purple area is a very successful subdivision known as Chaparal Mesa. The average price of homes in that area is around $220,000 and many listings and sales happen in that subdivision on a monthly basis.


Finally on the map below is a closer look at Valle Vista. Another subdivision I include on my data searches. It's all SFR out there. That subdivision has water, power, and phone service but not gas or cable. Still it is another popular area with many transactions each month that reflect what I consider good data to include.



I hope these maps have helped you get a bit more familiar with the area I live and work in.

More charts...

I have so much fun with these things now that I finally figured out how to use the chart feature on Excel. Just click on these to see a larger view.




You'll easily see that prices continue to go up, but after looking at the chart below I think you will understand which direction prices will go next.


I'll just say that if you are thinking of selling today you may want to consider placing your home on the market for less that what everyone else is. As noted before on this blog, property value has skyrocketed in this market the past couple of years at least. If you are thinking of adding to the blue line above and want to end up on the orange line, price point will have to be your biggest decision.

My hope is that any downturn we see in price in this market is a slight correction and not a crash. However it may end up being a crash if sellers continue to ask for more and more as each month passes.

Preliminary numbers for May 2004

Really more of the same continues from the past few months.

All numbers are for single family residences (SFR's) taken from new and existing home listings and sales within the city limits of Kingman and includes data from county area's such as north Kingman and the Valle Vista subdivision that sit outside the city limits.

There are now 617 listings for SFR's on the market.

153 new SFR listings hit the market in May 2004.
59 units are brand new homes.

Average price for new listings in May is $255,703.
Median price for new listings in May is $226,950.

68 SFR's were sold in the area studied in May 2004
30 of those were brand new homes.

Average price for sold homes in May 2004 was $215,201
Median price for sold homes in May 2004 was $189,900

There is a total of 175 SFR's under contract currently.
68 SFR's went under contract in May 2004.

I'll never be confused with a math guru but by my calculations there is at least a 9 month supply of inventory of the area's that I took the data from. Prices hold up to a 6 month inventory, or so I've read, but prices should fall when there is a larger than 6 month inventory. I haven't seen the average price or the median price fall accordingly as of yet. I'll post some updated charts on prices and unit sales in a bit.

Someone tell me what they think of this market and what we should expect in the coming months. It's perfectly fine to leave your comments.

Friday, May 26, 2006

Memorial Day..




In my recent trip to DC I was able to take some shots like these. At the time I wasn't even thinking of Memorial Day. Today I am though. This weekend is not just three days off from work. With many brave and honorable soldiers serving our country all over the world today we must not forget the sacrifice they make for us.

A big thank you to all that have served us and who are continuing to serve this great country.

I've been to DC a couple of times to see these monuments and the Korean War Monument is my favorite. Those soldiers in the field in all of their gear... something about it stir's me when I am there. However, each time I started the walk along the Wall at the Vietnam War Memorial I can't help to get choked up a bit as I walk along. The wall becomes larger vertically and when you start to see the names multiply in front of you... it's moving.

This is my simple tribute to all the brave men and women in the armed forces. It simply won't ever be enough.

Thank you.

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Average Price Chart


Look at the chart above closley. Notice that the average price went up from 2004 to 2005 30%. Then you'll see a 15% rise from 2005 through the first four months of 2006. I'm guessing the 2006 average will come down more by the end of the year.

Why? Because there is plenty of homes on the market right now that aren't selling. I think the key for you if you are planning to sell is to place your property on the market for less than the current average price for a similar home to yours. No not down to the 2005 level, but you should expect less than maybe what your neighbors got last year at the peak. Still, if you bought your home in 2004 or before, you've done pretty well.

It is always my stance that your residence should not be considered an investment, I believe it acts more as a liability. Many so called experts are saying the end is near in the real estate market. I do think we are in for some tougher times, but if you had to sell your home today and you purchased it in before 2004 you will still come away with a nice proceed at closing.

While the pressure from investors is leaving the market, there will still be pressure from people who will be relocating to this area. I am not a market guru and don't pretend to be, but I still see a positive market for sellers just not at the same rate we've seen over the last couple of years.

please note that the figures for 2006 are based only on the first four months of this year, the average could be less by the end of the year with softening prices due to an abundance of SFR's on the market currently.

These numbers reflect sales of SFR's in the city limits of Kingman but include north Kingman and Valle Vista which are outside the city limits.

Monday, May 22, 2006

Pity

While I was away in DC the local elections in Kingman for mayor and council took place. During the primaries only 3800 or so folks bothered to show up to vote (there are about 13,000 registered voters). I thought for sure that we'd see a dramatic increase in turnout for the general election. Didn't happen. Only 4200 folks managed to take the 15 minutes out of their day. Sad really.

My candidates did not win, but this isn't the problem. The apathy shown by the voters who bothered to register in the first place is the problem. I'll use the rest of my time as president of my local realtor association to promote voting. We simply cannot leave the future of this city in the hands of a small minority of people any longer.

Fellow residents of Kingman should be embarrassed about the turnout to vote. We are still a very small community and actually can make a difference with our voting power.

Been in DC for the past week



Blogging was slow last week because I was in Washington DC for the REALTOR Midyear Legislative Mettings & Trade Expo. Had a nice walk from the Capitol to the Lincoln Memorial then back to catch a Metro train to my hotel. My feet hurt by the end and I got rained on. Living in Arizona I am not equipped with an umbrella and did not even wear my Phillies cap.

Saw the WWII Memorial for the first time and snapped the photo on top.

More blogging this week. I promise.

Saturday, May 13, 2006

Perception, Sometimes

My sister in Hawaii sent me an email with the following photo's and I wanted to share them with you.

Your House

As seen through your eyes...






As seen through the buyers eyes...







As seen through your lenders eyes...







As seen through your appraisers eyes...






And finally as seen through your tax assessors eyes...





Yeah, it does feel like this doesn't it at times??

The State of the Bubble in Kingman

I've been reading a ton of sites with good and alarming information. There is plenty of stuff online that anyone can find about the real estate bubble and the panic that surrounds it.

I can't control the market, no one can. My hope is that all of you who have bought homes in the recent past (for living in) did so on locked rate mortgages. I've never sold a home to a family for a residence on anything other than a locked rate mortgage. I have had investors use creative financing on their property that they intended for rentals, but I also trust that those investors know what they are doing to a larger degree.

Interest rates are rising again and I read that folks who used a lending program such as an adjustable rate mortgage are now feeling the squeeze as their monthly payments are rising much faster and sooner than they thought they might. Key here is that this is what I'm reading, this is not something that any clients have told me about. Feel free to add your comments if you are experiencing this kind increase in your monthly payment.

On another note, I recently figured out how to do charts on Excel spreadsheets and have put together a chart to share with you. The chart below is a look at single family residence (SFR's) sales monthly going back to January of 2004.



For clarification, the data comes from SFR's that were sold only within the city limits of Kingman with the exeption of the north Kingman area (that includes a popular subdivision called Chaparel Mesa) and Valle Vista that are not within the city limits. These exceptions were included because these area's have many SFR sales each month. The data does not include mobil homes, multi-family homes, commercial property, or land purchases. I run this data set each month and have been doing so since the year 2004.

2004 and 2005 were considered barnburner years in this community. As you can see the number of units seller per month is declining so far this year and now we are below the level of sales compared to the previous two years. It will be interesting to see if in May the numbers start to go back up or not like the trend was in 04 and 05.

I'll update this chart again, and post other charts showing the trends of prices as well in upcoming posts.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

What Did Les Have To Say?

I love politics and discussing them, however I'm not trying to make this blog poltical. However, last night there was a candidates forum at the Mohave County Community College and both council candidates and one mayoral candidate showed up. Where was the other candidate?

I've already made up my mind who I'm going to vote for in the mayor's election, but I think it would have been nice to hear from Les Byram (the candidate that no showed). I seriously don't know what platform he is running on. My perception is no growth for the city. It would have been nice to hear from him and his plans going forward for this growing city.

It's also my understanding that Les won't be showing up at another event where the candidates were invited to participate in. Makes me wonder if his heart is really in this race, or better yet, is his heart in the right place for the city of Kingman.

I wish all the candidates the best of luck for the May 16th elections.

Monday, May 01, 2006

April Numbers

Here is an update on the real estate market in the Kingman area for April of 2006. All numbers are for single family residences within the Kingman city limits and taken from the local MLS.

There are currently 604 listings on the market, average listing price is $253,039, median price is $227,950.

There are 187 homes that are currently under contract. The average price for a home that went under contract in April was $215,585, and the median price was $184,900.

62 homes were sold in April, average sales price was $192,107, median price was $182,450.

Of the number of active listings, 226 of them are brand new homes. This trend is steady. Of the new homes sold most are in the $165,000 to $190,000 range.

I'm telling my selling clients that they shouldn't expect to sell their home this year at 2005 price levels, or at least not to expect the continuation of the metoric rise in values to continue. This market is due to adjust similar to the way the Las Vegas and Phoenix markets started to towards the end of last year. There are still plenty of buyers coming into this market, but now there are many more options for those buyers. Options include getting a better price. Sellers will have to be more competitive than they had to be last year.

Looking ahead I still see this market gaining value in the coming years, however it will be a slower rise in values and it may dip somewhat this year. Kingman will continue to grow as there will be more job opportunites coming to the area and the climate is ideal for new retiree's. New home developments are still on schedule to begin with those ideas in mind.

Thursday, April 20, 2006

Local Board Approves New Vendor Contract

Today our Board of Directors with the Kingman/Golden Valley Association of REALTORS approved the new MLS vendor contract. This is the first step taken to insure that our local REALTORS will have MLS service to aid in the sales of property. The current vendor contract expires in November of this year, and would not be extended.

This is great news for the local agents and brokers. The new vendors product is greatly enhanced with user friendly features to help streamline the time and effort for the job of selling property.

This also is the official first step towards a regional MLS with other neighboring Associations. The KGVAR and the Lake Havasu Association and the Bullhead City Association have already approved their choice of new vendor, which is the same vendor the Kingman group chose. Now that one vendor will service each Association, the groups can move closer to combining those resources to allow for more exposure of their clients listings throughout the western Arizona area.

While this action today was significant in terms of moving closer to a regional MLS, there is still a long way to go. I'll keep you updated.

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

A Tax Revolt In Arizona

The rise in property value has benefitted many in our community over the last few years. However, tax assesements are due to increase as well and some think unfairly. Marc Goldstone, a local Bullhead City businessman, has started a movement to put a cap on the rise of taxes on property. He is leading an effort to put this issue on the ballot for the upcoming state elections later this year.

Check out this site. Get involved and help out if you'd like to see a reasonable approach to property tax in the state of Arizona.

Monday, April 17, 2006

The Ranch At White Hills Has Water

According to the Mohave County website, one of the proposed developments has been issued an "Analysis of Adequate Water Supply".

The Ranch at White Hills
, a development owned by the Mardian Group, was given this issue late last week. They have plans for over 20,000 single family homes in the upcoming years.

Next up is the Rhodes development... I hope they get their issue as well, soon.

Friday, April 07, 2006

And so it begins...

I received a notice for REALTORS from a local home builder that is offering a higher than what has been normal commission rate for sales of their homes. Over the last few years the local market saw builders offer a flat rate fee commission, usually far less than the normal market commission. Many builders didn't even hire a REALTOR to list their new homes on the local MLS.

While I never experienced anything like it, I did hear of attempts by builders to practically steal would be buyers from REALTORS so they wouldn't have to pay ANY commission to anyone.

On one hand I don't blame them, and I'm certainly not saying that they did anything illegal, afterall this is a free market and a customer has the right to get the best deal for themselves. However on the other hand, perhaps the smarter play was for the builders to treat ALL parties a touch more fair. They could have simply worked with real estate agents all along that time frame where sales were basically automatic.

Now that the position of power is changing a little, at least in my perception, I hope the REALTORS in this area will just graciously accept the better benefits from the sellers/builders, and prove to them the value of their service... To work hard, not just for the buyer but also the seller... To go the extra mile and make the process better and easier like only a good REALTOR can. That way when the balance of power shifts again (and it will in this market), the builders/sellers will see the true benefits of working along side a REALTOR.